Human Development Report - Croatia 2008 Tourism^63Additionally, sea-level rise, coastal erosion, and inun-
dation could lead to the failure of various infrastruc-
ture systems - from beaches to sewers, to marinas and
berths (see Chapter 5).
Finally, with a shift of climatic regions there may be an
increase in epidemics (such as cholera and typhoid)
and vector-borne diseases (such as malaria and den-
gue fever).^40
A loss of snow
In addition to the impacts on summer tourism, win-
ter tourism may also be affected by the reduction in
snow pack. An increase of only 1°C (which is expected)
could result in the serious decline or even the com-
plete failure of the small snow-related tourism sector
in Croatia. The average winter temperature for moun-
tainous areas is -0.6° C and has been steadily rising
(see Chapter 3), thus resulting in a decrease in snow
pack in recent decades.^41
4.3.5. Multiplier effects of local impacts
Income and job losses in local tourism-centred com-
munities have the potential to spread throughout the
economy as the flow of goods and services between
the tourist sector and other parts of the economy
would be affected. Croatia’s long-term development
strategy of relying on tourism as one of the primary
sources of national income may be at risk. Croatia
generates approximately 20% of its GDP from tour-
ism, which is characteristic of economically undevel-
oped countries.^42 Most developed countries have a
relatively small share of tourism in GDP, such as Italy
and Austria (6%).^43 Even ‘famous’ and branded non-
European holiday countries such as Australia, Malay-
sia, Thailand or Singapore do not rely on tourism sub-
stantially. Singapore lowered its percentage of GDP
from the tourism sector roughly from 14% to 5 % from
1990 to 2005.^44 While there are no macro-economic
models of the Croatian economy that can measure
what the impact of a drop in tourism would mean for
the economy, it is apparent that the entire economy is
vulnerable if tourism should falter.
The impact climate change on specific groups of
people is not clear. A potential multiplier effect would
be on the seasonal workforce. In the case of minimal
warming (up to 1°C), the tourist season may start earli-
er and close later and, as a result, the number of work-
ing months will increase.^45 On the other hand, the
seasonal workforce may suffer if unfavourable climat-
ic conditions (frequent extreme events, for example)
harm the tourism sector and tourist numbers fall.Figure 4-8: Cartoon on the dependence of Croatia on
tourism (Croatian text: “Are you one of those countries
they write about that completely leans on tourists...
More than Banana Republics on bananas!”).In addition, changes in the number of tourist visits could
dramatically affect numerous middle-class entrepreneurs
who are dependant on tourist revenue (rental apartment
owners, family restaurant owners, etc.), particularly dur-
ing the peak summer season. Private accommodation
and campsites make up 67% of all visitors capacity for
hosting to Croatia.^46 This group does not have as much
capital available for adapting to climate change as do the
larger hotels and hosts. If climate change lengthens the
tourist season, but total tourist visits remain constant,
larger hotels may earn more while secondary, less-attrac-
tive rentals suffer because of a drop in the peak months.
If, on the other hand, the peak flows are expanded andSource: Puntarić 2008.Changes in the
number of tourist
visits could
dramatically
affect numerous
middle-class
entrepreneurs
who are
dependant on
tourist revenue
(rental apartment
owners, family
restaurant
owners, etc.),
particularly
during the peak
summer season