A Climate for Change

Human Development Report - Croatia 2008 Coastal Zone and Sea-Level Rise^73

5.1. Introduction

One of the effects of climate change is sea-level rise.
This chapter analyses the possible implications of sea-
level rise for the Croatian coast in a human develop-
ment context, the direct and indirect impacts result-
ing from it, and the eventual adaptation measures
that may overcome foreseeable problems. It also dis-
cusses some of the issues related to coastal zone man-
agement, in general, which have some connection to
climate change.

Models using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) SRES scenarios^1 presented in the IPCC
(2001) report, project a global absolute sea-level rise
of between 9 cm and 88 cm by 2100. The IPCC (2007)
report^2 also projects a sea-level rise of between 18 and
59 cm (depending upon emission scenario) until 2099,
caused by the warming of the seawater only, without
taking into consideration ice-melt/ ice sheet flow or
the full effects of uncertainties in climate-carbon cycle
feedbacks. According to the IPCC working report, it is
not possible to assess the likelihood of certain levels
of sea-level rise.^3 Some studies^4 have estimated that
the Earth will be warm enough in less than 150 years
(assuming no reduction in greenhouse gas emissions)
to melt the Greenland Ice Sheet. This change could
lead to four to six metres of sea-level rise at a rate of
two to five centimetres per year.

Antarctica does not yet appear to be contributing
substantially to sea-level rise, because the snow fall
rate and the formation of new ice is still greater than
the rate of ice-melt. This is due to increased precipi-
tation over that region which is, ironically, caused by
increased evaporation due to global atmospheric
warming. In regions of coastal subsidence or high
tectonic activity, which is the case with the Croatian
coast, climate change-driven sea-level rise could be
even faster and more pronounced and thus cause
even more damage. When examining the amount and
type of land that may become submerged due to sea-
level rise in Croatia, it appears there may be profound
impacts.

5.2. The importance of the coast

to Croatia

The Croatian territorial sea occupies an area of 31,067

km^2 , which is roughly one-third of the total Croatian

territory. The length of the coastline is 5835 km and

there are 1246 islands and islets, of which only 47 are

inhabited.^5 The Adriatic is directly responsible for the

well-being of Croatians – not only those living on the

coast, but also those living on the continent. In addi-

tion to its cultural significance, the coast is also the

main area for tourism. Maritime transport, offshore

gas production, shipbuilding, agriculture and fishing

and mariculture, also occur either on or near the coast.

All these sectors are extremely important to the Croa-

tian economy, in general, and affect the well-being

of hundreds of thousands of households. However,

successful economic development is only one part of

sustainable human development. Sustainable devel-

opment includes the protection of natural resources,

biodiversity and aesthetic landscapes, as well as the

inclusion of the public and stakeholders in the process

of planning and development.

The most recent documents^6 on this subject suggest

that, despite the importance of the natural, coastal

ecosystems to Croatia’s economy, the actual protec-

tion measures established are not strong enough to

Figure 5-1: Storm surge in Rijeka.

Source: HINA.