Discriminate and Eliminate
There is usually nothing wrong with guessing, unless, of course, you
know wrong answers will be penalized. Even then, the question is
how oftento guess (and on what basis).
If there’s no penalty for wrong answers, you should never leave an
answer blank. But you should also do everything you can to increase
your odds of getting it right. If every multiple-choice question gives
you four possible answers, you have a 25-percent chance of being
right (and, of course, a 75-percent chance of being wrong) each time
you have to guess.
But if you can eliminate a single answer—one you are reasonably
certain cannot be right—your chances of being correct increase to
33 percent.
And, of course, if you can get down to a choice between two
answers, it’s just like flipping a coin: 50-50. In the long run, you will
guess as many right as wrong. Even if there is a penalty for guessing,
I would probably pick one answer if I had managed to reduce the
odds to 50-50.
Presuming that you’ve managed to eliminate one or more answers,
but are still unsure of the correct answer and have no particular
way to eliminate any others, here are some real insider tips to make
your “guesses” more educated:
■ If two answers sound alike, choose neither.
■ The most “obvious” answer to a difficult question is probably
wrong, but an answer that is close to it is probably right.
■ If the answers that are left to a mathematical question cover
a broad range, eliminate the extremes and choose a number
in the middle.
■ If two quantities are very close, choose one of them.188 How to Study