IX: Obama’s Triumph of the Will: The 2008 Primaries 341rainbow model had led to the rout of the union movement, the collapse of living standards over four
decades, and to the impotence and isolation of the party. But the Pelosi faction had lashed
themselves to the carcass of multiculturalism, and they would rather lose an infinity of presidential
elections rather than lose their personal status and power, no matter what the terrible consequences
to the American people.
OBAMA AS THE NEW MCGOVERN:
EGGHEADS AND BLACKS ARE NOT ENOUGH
After Obama’s staggering defeats in Ohio and Pennsylvania, even some of the more clear-eyed
acolytes of his campaign began to fear for the result in November. What caught their eye was the
eerie resemblance between the outlines of Obama’s coalition as he became weaker and weaker in
April and May, and the 1972 McGovern voter base. That distant debacle was clearly in danger of
being repeated if Obama got the nomination. John Judis had co-authored a book about what he saw
on as the emerging Democratic majority, but Judis was now alarmed. He wrote an article which
caused a furor among the more faithful Kool-Aid addicts at The Nation, who began directing their
vituperation and infective against their hapless left liberal colleague. Judis found that ‘...Obama’s
weaknesses as a general election candidate grow more apparent with each successive primary. I
visited Pennsylvania during this time, and could feel the growing disillusionment with Obama. ...
Obama cut into Clinton’s advantage, but couldn’t erase it. Even though he campaigned extensively
among white working class Pennsylvanians, he still couldn’t crack this constituency. He lost every
white working class county in the state. He lost greater Pittsburgh area by 61 to 39 percent. He did
poorly among Catholics – losing them 71 to 29 percent. A Democrat can’t win Pennsylvania in the
fall without these voters. And those who didn’t vote in the primary but will vote in the general
election are likely to be even less amenable to Obama. But Obama also lost ground among the
upscale white professionals that had helped him win states like Wisconsin, Maryland, and Virginia.
For instance, Obama won my own Montgomery County, Maryland by 55 to 43 percent but he lost
suburban Philadelphia’s very similar Montgomery County by 51 to 49 percent to Clinton. He lost
upscale arty Bucks County by 62 to 38 percent. ...the electoral premise of Obama’s campaign – that
he can attract middle class Republicans and Independents--is being undermined. Indeed, if you look
at Obama’s vote in Pennsylvania, you begin to see the outlines of the old George McGovern
coalition that haunted the Democrats during the ‘70s and ‘80s, led by college students and
minorities. In Pennsylvania, Obama did best in college towns (60 to 40 percent in Penn State’s
Centre County) and in heavily black areas like Philadelphia. Its ideology is very liberal. Whereas in
the first primaries and caucuses, Obama benefited from being seen as middle-of-the-road or even
conservative, he is now receiving his strongest support from voters who see themselves as “very
liberal.” In Pennsylvania, he defeated Clinton among “very liberal” voters by 55 to 45 percent, but
lost “somewhat conservative” voters by 53 to 47 percent and moderates by 60 to 40 percent. In
Wisconsin and Virginia, by contrast, he had done best against Clinton among voters who saw
themselves as moderate or somewhat conservative. Obama even seems to be acquiring the religious
profile of the old McGovern coalition. In the early primaries and caucuses, Obama did very well
among the observant. In Maryland, he defeated Clinton among those who attended religious
services weekly by 61 to 31 percent. By contrast, in Pennsylvania, he lost to Clinton among these
voters by 58 to 42 percent and did best among voters who never attend religious services, winning
them by 56 to 44 percent. There is nothing wrong with winning over voters who are very liberal and
who never attend religious services; but if they begin to become Obama’s most fervent base of
support, he will have trouble (to say the least) in November. The primaries, unfortunately, are not