354 Barack H. Obama: The Unauthorized BiographyOBAMA BETS EVERYTHING ON GEORGIA AND VIRGINIA
By July, Obama’s hopes for winning at the ballot box (as distinct from by means of scandals
orchestrated by the FBI) came down to this: ‘Obama’s entire claim to redrawing the political map is
based on his perceived ability to win in Southern states precisely because of African-American
voters. ... Hillary’s claim that she alone was capable of winning large swing states that Democrats
must win, such as Ohio and Pennsylvania, went unnoticed and unheeded by Dean, Pelosi and
others. However, this is a severe and dangerous gamble. As we pointed out a few weeks back, the
Obama campaign seems to know that Ohio and Florida are going to be a stretch, so they are looking
for alternate paths to 270, which means they are relying heavily on the Southern states, especially
Virginia and Georgia. They also discuss the Rocky Mountain states of Nevada, New Mexico and
Colorado, but frankly, even if he wins those three, and Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire
(all three of which will be highly competitive), if he loses Ohio and Florida, he will lose the election
267-271 (this count includes all the states Kerry won). In short, if Obama loses Ohio and Florida,
the three Rocky Mountain states and Georgia and Virginia become must win states. As Senator
Obama will still lose the general election with the three Rocky Mountain states if he fails to swing
Georgia and Virginia, these two states are of particular interest. [...] Mr. Obama can write off
Georgia and North Carolina for the same reasons that Mississippi is beyond his reach — although
the math in those two states is slightly less daunting.... But while Obama is throwing millions of
dollars at states that have not gone to Democrats since 1964 (Virginia), and 1992 (Georgia and
Bill), he’ll be opening the door even wider for Republicans in actual swing states. Mike DuHaime,
political director of the Republican National Committee, doesn’t argue with Obama’s fund-raising
advantage. But he disputes the notion that Obama can afford to keep throwing money at long shots
once the campaign really heats up in the fall, and he contends that Obama’s defense of vulnerable
states like New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Ohio will be much more expensive. “It would take a major
swing to swing these [Southern] states,” says DuHaime. “I don’t fault them for trying to expand the
map, but we have better opportunities in other states that are just as big, if not bigger —
Pennsylvania, Ohio, for example.”’^183 Democrats should also note that what is being aimed at here
is not a permanent and durable Democratic majority capable of rebuilding the country, but rather an
odd bloc of states built around the personality cult of Obama. Even if Obama got to the White
House, if the next Democratic nominee after Obama were not also Obama, there would be no
strategy left. As usual, Obama was building a personality cult, not a permanent and reliable voting
bloc with a coherent pattern based on identifiable voter groups. There would be no FDR coalition,
but just a flash in the pan.
OBAMA HAS NEVER WON A CONTESTED ELECTION
The 2008 presidential election represents the second time that Obama has ever run in a truly
contested election. In his 1996 state senate race, he threw all his opponents off the Democratic
primary ballot, which was tantamount to election. In 2000, Obama made a bid for election to the US
House of Representatives, but in this case he had an actual opponent, the incumbent Democrat
Representative Bobby Rush. In this contest, Obama was resoundingly thrashed. In his 2004 US
Senate race in Illinois, his Democratic primary opponent and his Republican general election
opponent were conveniently destroyed by scandals piloted by his friends at the reactionary Chicago
Tribune. In the end, his Republican general election opponent was a carpetbagger and buffoon,
Allan Keyes from Maryland. One wonders why the Democratic Party would ever consider betting
its fortunes in a once in four decades party realignment election on a candidate who has never won a
contested election.