Chapter 7 Bonds and Their Valuation 217We see that bond ratings are determined by a great many factors, some quantita-
tive and some qualitative (or subjective). Also, the rating process is dynamic—at
times, one factor is of primary importance; at other times, some other factor is key.
Nevertheless, as we can see from Table 7-3, there is a strong correlation between
bond ratings and many of the ratios that we described in Chapter 4. Not surpris-
ingly, companies with lower debt ratios, higher free cash " ow to debt, higher
returns on invested capital, higher EBITDA coverage ratios, and higher TIE ratios
typically have higher bond ratings.
Importance of Bond Ratings
Bond ratings are important to both! rms and investors. First, because a bond’s rat-
ing is an indicator of its default risk, the rating has a direct, measurable in" uence
on the bond’s interest rate and the! rm’s cost of debt. Second, most bonds are pur-
chased by institutional investors rather than individuals and many institutions are
restricted to investment-grade securities. Thus, if a! rm’s bonds fall below BBB, it
will have a dif! cult time selling new bonds because many potential purchasers
will not be allowed to buy them.
As a result of their higher risk and more restricted market, lower-grade bonds
have higher required rates of return, rd, than high-grade bonds. Figure 7-4 illus-
trates this point. In each of the years shown on the graph, U.S. government bonds
have had the lowest yields, AAA bonds have been next, and BBB bonds have had
the highest yields. The! gure also shows that the gaps between yields on the three
types of bonds vary over time, indicating that the cost differentials, or yield
spreads, " uctuate from year to year. This point is highlighted in Figure 7-5, which
gives the yields on the three types of bonds and the yield spreads for AAA and
BBB bonds over Treasuries in January 1994 and January 2008.^19 Note! rst from
Bond Rating Criteria: Three-Year (2002–2004) Median Financial Ratios for
Different Bond Rating Classifications of Industrial CompaniesaTabl e 7 - 3AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC
Times interest earned
(EBIT/Interest)
23.8" 19.5" 8.0" 4.7" 2.5" 1.2" 0.4"EBITDA interest coverage
(EBITDA/Interest)
25.5 24.6 10.2 6.5 3.5 1.9 0.9Net cash flow/Total debt 203.3% 79.9% 48.0% 35.9% 22.4% 11.5% 5.0%
Free cash flow/Total debt 127.6 44.5 25.0 17.3 8.3 2.8 (2.1)
Return on capital 27.6 27.0 17.5 13.4 11.3 8.7 3.2
Total debt/EBITDA 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.2 3.5 5.3 7.9
Total debt/Total capital 12.4 28.3 37.5 42.5 53.7 75.9 113.5
a Somewhat different criteria are applied to firms in different industries, such as utilities and financial corporations.
This table pertains to industrial companies, which include manufacturers, retailers, and service firms.
Source: Adapted from “CreditStats Adjusted Key Industrial Financial Ratios,” Standard & Poor’s 2006
Corporate Ratings Criteria, September 10, 2007, p. 43.
(^19) A yield spread is related to but not identical to risk premiums on corporate bonds. The true risk premium re# ects
only the di! erence in expected (and required) returns between two securities that results from di! erences in their
risk. However, yield spreads re# ect (1) a true risk premium; (2) a liquidity premium, which re# ects the fact that U.S.
Treasury bonds are more readily marketable than most corporate bonds; (3) a call premium because most Treasury
bonds are not callable whereas corporate bonds are; and (4) an expected loss di! erential, which re# ects the
probability of loss on the corporate bonds. As an example of the last point, suppose the yield to maturity on a BBB
bond was 6.0% versus 4.8% on government bonds but there was a 5% probability of total default loss on the
corporate bond. In this case, the expected return on the BBB bond would be 0.95(6.0%) # 0.05(0%)! 5.7% and the
yield spread would be 0.9%, not the full 1.2 percentage points di! erence in “promised” yields to maturity.