of ADP’s 500,000 U.S. business clients and approximately 23 million em-
ployees. Because ADP processes the paychecks for 1 out of every 6 pri-
vate sector employees in the United States every pay period across a
broad range of industries, firm sizes, and geographies, ADP’s numbers
provide a good clue for the upcoming labor data. Early indications are
that the ADP number may give a better estimate of payroll changes than
the consensus forecast, although more data are needed to confirm this.THE CYCLE OF ANNOUNCEMENTS
The employment report is just one of several dozen economic announce-
ments that come out every month. The usual release dates for the various
data reports that the BLS, the Conference Board, and other entities gener-
ate in a typical month is displayed in Table 14-1. The number of asterisks
represents the importance of the report to the financial market.
The payroll report is the culmination of important data on eco-
nomic growth that come out around the turn of the month. On the first
business day of each month, a survey by the Institute for Supply Man-
agement (ISM, formerly the National Association of Purchasing Man-
agers, the NAPM) called the purchasing managers index(PMI) is released.
The institute’s report surveys 250 purchasing agents of manufac-
turing companies and inquires as to whether orders, production,CHAPTER 14 Stocks, Bonds, and the Flow of Economic Data 243
TABLE 14–1
Monthly Economic Calendar
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
1 2 3 4 5
8 :30 Leading Economic 8 :15 ADP Employment Est.** 8 :30 Jobless Claims**
Indicator* (2 months lag) 10 :00 Service PMI**
8 9 01 11 21
8 :30 Jobless Claims** 8 :30 Retail Sales**
8 :30 Producer Prices****
51 61 71 81 91
8 :30 Consumer Prices**** 8 :30 Housing Starts*** 8 :30 Merchandise Trade* 10 :00 Cons. Sentiment
9 :15 Industrial Production* 8 :30 Jobless Claims** (Univ. of Mich., Prelim.)**
12 :00 Phila. Fed Rep*
22 32 42 52 62
8 :30 Jobless Claims** 8 :30 Gross Dom. Prod.***
8 :30 PCE Deflator***
92 03 13
10 :00 Cons. Confidence 10 :00 Chicago Purchasing
(Conference Board)*** Managers**Stars Rank Importance to Market (**** = most important)10 :00 Purchasing Mgrs.
Index** (PMI)8 :30 Durable Goods
Orders**8 :30 Employment
Report****