310 POWER PLANT ENGINEERINGPublic Attitude. The public requires assurance that the industry truly has the issues of safety,
fuel security, and waste disposal well under control. Perhaps the French experience will be convincing
in this regard.
Greenhouse Effect. If the public comes to fear greenhouse warming, rather than simply having
a concern about it, as currently the case, nuclear energy may be viewed more favorably. Coal is the
“real” problem with respect to greenhouse gases. More electricity is produced by the burning of coal
than by any other method. If the world continues to produce much of its electricity from coal, the
evidence is fairly strong: CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere will significantly increase, and green-
house warming will occur (though the level of temperature increase is uncertain). Burning of all of the
earth's fossil fuel resources would probably increase the atmospheric CO 2 concentration from the cur-
rent level of 360 ppmv to about 1300 ppmv. 90% of this increase would be due to coal, since the oil and
gas resources are small compared to the coal resources. The calculation assumes 4000 Gte (giga tonnes)
of carbon in the earth's fossil fuel resources, an increase of 1ppmv CO 2 in the atmosphere for every
2.13 Gte of carbon burned, and a retention of 50% of the emitted CO 2 in the atmosphere. Since the start
of the industrial age in the late 1700s, the CO 2 contention of the atmosphere has increased about
80 ppmv, and the mean temperature of the earth’s atmosphere near the surface has increased about 1
degree F. If the temperature rise is assumed to be due to the CO 2 increase (which is debatable), a linear
extrapolation implies a temperature increase of 12 degrees F for the 360 to 1300 ppmv CO 2 increase.
Demand for Eelectricity. Electricity is a desirable and convenient form of energy. Several fac-
tors could influence the demand for its generation, including its generation from nuclear power stations:- Greater use of electricity, relative to heat, for manufacturing processes — a trend likely to
continue and to drive up demand for electricity. - Greater use of heat pumps for space heating. Significant growth here is problematic, since
gas is cheap, and for many, heating with gas-fired furnaces is cheaper than converting to
electric driven heat pumps. - Electrification of transportation systems : Electric vehicles (EVs) and some types of hybrid
electric vehicles (HEVs) depend on an external source of electricity. However, other types of
HEVs and fuel cell powered vehicles generate electricity on board. It is too early to judge
which system will evolve, or whether the internal combustion engine will retain predomi-
nance in a new form. Thus, a significant increase in electricity for the transportation sector is
difficult to judge at present. See the front page of the Wall Street Journal for Monday, January
5, 1998 for an article on new power plants for automobiles. - Combined cycle combustion turbines, fired on gas, are rapidly gaining popularity for gener-
ating electricity. Capital cost is relatively low, first law efficiency is high and will go higher
(at least 60%), and order-to-start-up time is short. These systems may diminish the interest in
new nuclear energy technology over the next one to two decades. Long term availability and
price stability of the natural gas is the concern with respect to these systems. Also, they emit
greenhouse gases, though the amount of CO 2 emitted per unit of electrical energy produced is
less than one half that of a coal-fired electric power generating station. - Renewable energy technology : What will be the growth of solar, wind, biomass, and other
renewable energy technologies? Will their cost competitiveness improve? Are they as envi-
ronmentally benign as thought? Will they fill more than niche markets? Will technological
breakthroughs occur? Could they increase from 8% of US primary energy consumption (the
current situation) to say the 20 to 30% level within 10 to 20 years? If “yes,” renewable energy
may diminish the rejuvenation of the nuclear energy industry.