12 Leaders TheEconomistOctober9th 2021
hydrogen and then hydrogen into usable power leadstowaste.
All this explains the gas’s tricky history. The oilshocksofthe
1970s led to research into hydrogen technologiesbuttheynever
went far. In the 1980s the Soviet Union even flewa hydrogen
powered passenger jet—the maiden flight lasted just 21 minutes.
Today climate change is causing another waveofenthusi
asm. More than 350 big projects are under way andcumulative
investment could reach $500bn by 2030. MorganStanley,a
bank, reckons that annual sales of hydrogen couldbeworth
$600bn by 2050. That is up from $150bn of salestoday,which
come mainly from industrial processes, includingmakingfer
tilisers. India will soon stage auctions for hydrogenandChileis
holding tenders for its production on public
lands. Over a dozen countries including Britain,
France, Germany, Japan and South Korea have
national hydrogen plans.
Amid the excitement, it is worth being clear
about what hydrogen can and cannot do. Ja
panese and South Korean firms are keen to sell
cars using hydrogen fuel cells, but battery cars
are roughly twice as energy efficient. Some
European countries hope to pipe hydrogen into homes, but heat
pumps are more effective and some pipes cannot handle the gas
safely. Some big energy firms and petrostates want to use natural
gas to make hydrogen without capturing the associated carbon
effectively, but that does not eliminate emissions.
Instead, hydrogen can help in niche markets, involving com
plex chemical processes and high temperatures that are hard to
achieve with electricity. Steel firms, spewing roughly 8% of glo
bal emissions, rely on coking coal and blast furnaces that wind
power cannot replace but which hydrogen can, using a process
known as direct reduction. Hybrit, a Swedish consortium, sold
the world’s first green steel made this way in August.
Anothernicheiscommercialtransport,particularlyforjour
neysbeyondthescopeofbatteries.Hydrogenlorriescanbeat
batterypoweredrivalswithfasterrefuelling,moreroomforcar
goanda longerrange.Cummins,anAmericancompany,isbet
tingonthem.Fuelsderivedfromhydrogenmayalsobeusefulin
aviationandshipping.Alstom,a Frenchfirm,isrunninghydro
genpoweredlocomotivesonEuropeantracks.
Last,hydrogencanbeusedasa materialtostoreandtran
sportenergyinbulk.Renewablegridsstrugglewhenthewind
diesoritisdark.Batteriescanhelp,butifrenewablepoweris
convertedtohydrogen,itcanbestoredcheaplyforlongperiods
andconvertedtoelectricityondemand.ApowerplantinUtah
planstostorethegasincavernstosupplyCali
fornia.Sunnyandwindyplacesthatlacktrans
missionlinkscanexportcleanenergyashydro
gen.Australia,ChileandMoroccohopeto“ship
sunshine”totheworld.
Withsomuchmoneypilingintohydrogen
thelistofusesforitmayexpand.Muchofthe
work isuptothe privatesector butgovern
mentscando theirbit.One taskis tocrack
down on greenwashing: hydrogen made from dirty fuels with
out highquality carbon capture will not help the climate. New
rules are needed to measure and disclose the lifecycle emis
sions arising from producing hydrogen and, given that it will be
traded across borders, these need international agreement.
Rainmakers move in
Government should also encourage hubs where different hydro
gen users cluster, minimising the need to duplicate infrastruc
ture. These are already emerging in Humberside in Britain and
Rotterdam in the Netherlands. Hydrogen has its limitations,but
it can play a vital role in bringing about cleaner energy.n
Share of energy consumption
In net-zero emissions scenario, %
2050
2030
2020
250 1007550
Oil Hydrogen Other
W
hen thelast American troops departed from Kabul on Au
gust 30th, it meant not only the end of a 20year campaign
in Afghanistan but also the end of Western reliance on neigh
bouring Pakistan. In that time the country had been an infuriat
ing partner that had helped natoforces with logistics and intel
ligence even as it provided a haven to the Taliban’s leaders. Now,
perhaps America could wash its hands and walk away.
America and its allies have plenty of reasons to feel ag
grieved. Pakistan is perpetually sparring with its neighbour, In
dia—which is steadily becoming a vital regional partner for the
West. It has close diplomatic and commercial ties with China, to
which it provides access to the Indian Ocean, via the Karakoram
highway and the port of Gwadar. It is home to lots of Muslim ex
tremists. With a gdpper head that is just twothirds of India’s
and which has in recent years been falling, Pakistan might seem
a sensible country to shun.
If only. Although Pakistan is no longer so central to America’s
plans, it is still a pivotal—and worrying—place. It has a rapidly
expanding arsenal of nuclear weapons. Those Muslim extrem
ists have been involved in terror attacks all over the world. The
country’s capacity to complicate relations between China and
India means that it is too important to ignore.
However, the West needs to be realistic about what sort of co
operation is and is not possible. Realism starts by acknowledg
ing that Pakistan will never do many of the things its Western
friends would like. Exhortations to the army to stop stageman
aging politics will fall on deaf ears, even though Pakistan would
be better off if it did. Trying to induce Pakistan to split with Chi
na is also hopeless. The generals are too keen to have an ally
against India, too eager for Chinese investment and too con
scious of the West’s misgivings to put all their eggs in one bas
ket. Doing anything that smacks of siding with America against
fellow Muslims is also a hard sell. Pakistan’s rulers see them
selves as natural leaders of the Islamic world and are reluctant to
rile their most doctrinaire citizens.
Nevertheless, for all its problems, Pakistan is in a position to
offer something to the West. Its politics have become calmer
since the army stopped trying to run the country directly and in
stead entrusted the task to a pliable politician, Imran Khan (see
Asia section). The Islamist terrorists who made the place look
For the West to talk to Pakistan is not easy or pleasant, but it is necessary
An all-weather frenemy
Pakistan