14 Leaders The Economist October 9th 2021
like an incipient Afghanistan a few years ago have been largely
suppressed. What is more, although Pakistan is chummy with
China, it also craves Western attention. The elite speak English,
send their children to American and European universities and
holiday in London and Paris.
And Pakistan has something to gain. Even more than Amer
ica, it benefits from tempering the zealotry of the Taliban, keep
ing Afghanistan stable and preventing the spread of extremism.
The Pakistani version of the Taliban has killed far more Paki
stanis than the Afghan Taliban killed Americans. Pakistan’s rul
ers would also like more economic assistance, ideally on more
concessionary terms than the millstone loans that have accom
panied some Chinese investments. No doubt they will give in to
the temptation to play China and the West off against one anoth
er. But that is better than becoming a Chinese client state.
The ultimate prize would be some sort of detente between
Pakistan and India. That will not come easily, or quickly. Politi
cians and soldiers in both countries find railing against the other lot too useful to abandon lightly. But Pakistanis know they
cannot compete with India in the long run. And after border
scuffles in the Himalayas, Indians are coming to see that deter
ring China is much more important than bickering with Paki
stan. There is surely scope to make the region safer, and to build
a stronger network of alliances, if the West is willing to remain
sufficiently engaged and to plan for the long term.Dial D for diplomacy
Although its Taliban allies won in Afghanistan, Pakistan is in a
difficult position in a dangerous neighbourhood. The generals
know that the West blows hot and cold, but their narrow selfin
terest leaves scope for cooperation. Some gladhanding would
be a good start. Joe Biden, America’s president, has held two
summits with Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister—one in
person and one by video link. He has not yet deigned to give Mr
Khan a call, much less invite him to the White House. Nowthat
America has left Afghanistan, a bit of courtesy makes sense.nI
t is almosta year sinceAbiyAhmed,theprimeministerof
Ethiopia, launched a “law enforcement” operation against the
government of the northern region of Tigray, which he accused
of rebellion. Since the beginning, the ensuing conflict has been
marked by war crimes. Late last year in the city of Axum, for in
stance, Eritrean troops fighting alongside Ethiopian forces mur
dered hundreds of civilians, mostly men and boys. Some were
lined up and shot in the back. Others were gunned down as they
came out of church or murdered while lying in bed in hospital.
And the Tigrayans have been accused, among other atrocities, of
raping and killing Eritrean refugees in uncamps.
Horrifying as these crimes are, they are now being eclipsed
by an even more heinous one: a deliberate attempt by the Ethio
pian government to starve its own citizens.
Since the fighting broke out Tigray has suffered
an increasingly restrictive blockade by govern
ment forces. Since July it has received only a
fraction of the food needed to keep its 6m in
habitants alive, hardly any fuel and no medical
supplies at all. More than 5m people do not have
enough to eat. Some 400,000 of those are fac
ing what aid agencies call “catastrophic” hun
ger—the last step on the path to mass starvation. Aid workers
compare the crisis to Ethiopia’s famine of the 1980s, when
400,000700,000 died.
Ethiopia’s government insists it is doing all it can to help the
hungry in Tigray and, in particular, that it is letting aid pass
through its blockade. Data from the untell a different story.
Aid agencies reckon that 100 trucks of food and medicine
must enter the state each day to avert famine. Only about a tenth
of that is being let through by the government and its allies. In
stead of asking international agencies for help to feed its citi
zens, the government is impeding their efforts. It has suspended
the work of two of them, Médecins Sans Frontières and the Nor
wegian Refugee Council, and has also expelled seven senior unofficials,accusingthemof“meddling” in its internal affairs.
America and the European Union have taken a few steps to
press Ethiopia and the Tigrayans to stop the war and end abuses,
including halting the sale of weapons and withholding some bi
lateral aid. America has also threatened to impose financial
sanctions on people implicated in war crimes or in fanning the
conflict’s flames.
But the impact has been negligible. To replace arms previous
ly supplied by France, Germany and Israel, Ethiopia has turned
to Turkey and Iran, among others. To make up for the reduction
in aid, it has asked the imffor a bailout and its creditors for
forgiveness of some of its $30bn in external debt.
It would take an arms embargo by the unto stop the govern
ment getting hold of deadly weapons. Yet China
and Russia are preventing the un Security
Council, which on October 6th discussed the
conflict in Tigray for the tenth time, from even
condemning the expulsion of un officials,
much less imposing strict sanctions.
Fortunately, Western countries still have
considerable leverage. The emergency loan that
Ethiopia wants from the imfand the forbear
ance it is seeking from creditors depend on the acquiescence of
America and Europe. They should not yield until the blockade
ends. Trade is another point of pressure. Ethiopia exports about
$250m a year to America under the African Growth and Opportu
nity Act, a dutyfree scheme. Each country eligible to take part is
reviewed by the American authorities every year. They should
remove Ethiopia from the list unless Tigray is fed.
These steps may not work. Abiy, who won the Nobel peace
prize in 2019 for ending a long conflict with Eritrea, seems
increasingly paranoid and erratic (see Middle East & Africa sec
tion). But to do anything less would be to stand by as mass mur
der is taking place. To averta calamity, Western governments
must pull every lever they have.nEthiopia is deliberately starving its own citizens. It must be stoppedNo favours for killers
Ethiopia’s war in Tigray