The Economist - USA (2021-10-09)

36 Asia TheEconomistOctober9th 2021

rism  Portal,  a  monitoring  site,  Pakistan

saw  more  big  incidents  in  the  first  nine

months  of  this  year—67,  with  329  people

killed—than  in  all  of  2020.  The  steepest

rise  has  come  in  the  past  two  months,  in

areas along the Afghan border.

All the more worrying for Pakistanis is

the fact that the Taliban, on capturing Ka­

bul, opened prisons and freed, among oth­

ers, Faqir Muhammad, a leader of the Teh­

rik­i­Taliban  Pakistan  (ttp),  a  terrorist

group  responsible  for  some  of  the  worst

massacres  in  Pakistani  history.  The  ttpis

thought to have as many as 5,000 men hid­

ing in Afghanistan. On his release Mr Mu­

hammad  declared  that  the  imposition  of

sharia in Afghanistan proves that it is pos­

sible to adopt it in Pakistan, too. He was re­

ferring  to  the  same  violent  interpretation

of  religious  law  that  the  Taliban  practise,

and  meant  that  his  group  would  fight  to

bring  it  to  Pakistan.  “Every  day  brings  re­

newed  evidence  of  the  extreme  dangers

posed to Pakistan,” tweets Mosharraf Zaidi,

a  columnist.  “Taliban  enthusiasts  have  to

choose  between  the  (Pakistani)  republic

and their ridiculous juvenile fantasies.”

You know my other side

In  some  ways  Imran  Khan,  Pakistan’s

prime  minister,  also  embodies  the  coun­

try’s contradictions. A product of its privi­

leged  Anglophone  elite,  a  former  cricket

star  and  global  playboy,  he  is  also  a  mor­

alising religious conservative, an econom­

ic populist and an obedient servant of the

generals who call the shots in Pakistan. His

government  recently  proposed  a  law  that

would prescribe up to two years in jail for

any  civilian  who  “ridicules,  brings  into

disrepute  or  defames  the  armed  forces  of

Pakistan”.  The  draft  stipulates  that  such

cases should be tried in military courts. In

a  meeting  with  Islamic  scholars  last

month,  Mr  Khan  declared  that  under  his

rule no new law would ever go against reli­

gious guidelines.

Dismissed  by  some  as  “Taliban  Khan”,

and  so  far  not  even  accorded  a  phone  call

from President Joe Biden, the prime minis­

ter has been a passionate and articulate de­

fender  of  Pakistan’s  Afghan  policy.  Given

space on the opinion pages of the Washing-

ton Post, he detailed the heavy cost in lives

and money that Pakistan has paid because

of the troubles next door, and voiced exas­

peration that Western governments failed

to  grasp  that  many  Afghans  viewed  nato

troops as no different from the Soviet ones

who  invaded  two  decades  earlier.  “Surely

Pakistan  is  not  to  blame  for  the  fact  that

300,000  well­trained  and  well­equipped

Afghan  security  forces  saw  no  reason  to

fight the lightly­armed Taliban,” he wrote.

Mr Khan left out other pieces of the puz­

zle.  He  did  not  mention  that  much  of  the

Taliban leadership has enjoyed a long and

close  relationship  with  both  Pakistani  Is­

lamistsandtheisi, thecountry’sintelli­

genceservice.Hefailedtonotea crucial

difference in perspective: for Pakistan’s

generalsthedangerofblowbackfromjiha­

disminAfghanistan,whilereal—MrKhan

sayshiscountrysuffered16,000terrorat­

tacksbetween 2006 and2015—wasalways

weighed against the crucial mission of

keepingPakistan’sgreatestenemy,India,

outoftheirbackyard.

Theprimeministeralsoneglectedto

explainthatPakistan’sspieshavelongfa­

vouredtheTalibanbecause,unliketradi­

tional Afghan nationalists,the religious

fanatics care little for historic Afghan

claimstobitsofPakistaniterritoryanddo

not speak ofuniting Pushtuns, a 60m­

strongethnicgroupthatisdividedbythe

border.AndneedlesstosayMrKhandid

not remindhis American audience that

Osama bin Laden, the al­Qaeda leader,

spentyearsconcealedinabighouse in

Pakistan,nextdoortoanarmybaseandre­

tiredarmyofficers,beforebeingfoundand

dispatchedbyAmericanNavySeals.

Still,theoutcomeinAfghanistanwould

seemtobegoodforMrKhan.Sincewin­

ningpowerin 2018 theprimeministerhas

struggled to maintain popularity. Many

Pakistanis,awarethatthearmyisthereal

power in theland andmore concerned

withrisingpricesthanpoliticalantics,see

littlechangeintheirlot.MrKhan’srelent­

lesscrusadeagainstallegedlycorruptfor­

mer officials, which included hounding

thepreviousprimeminister,NawazSharif,

outofthecountry,hasprovedmoredivi­

sivethanpopular,althoughit hassucceed­

ed indisruptingandweakeningopposi­

tionparties.Hisgovernment’sclumsyef­

fortstotamePakistan’softensurprisingly

feistypress,bythreateningreportersand

owners,blockingwebsitesandproposinga

law to create a mostly state­appointed

oversightboardforallmedia,hasnotso

muchwonkindercoverageasgenerated

mistrustofthegovernment.

Yet Pakistan’svictory­by­proxy inAf­

ghanistannowmakesMrKhanlookpre­

scient,withhisforthright argumentfor

theworldtoaccepttherealityoftheTali­

ban and to send aid to Pakistan’s poor

“brothers”.Ithelps,too,thatforreasons

thatarenotyetunderstood,covid­19ap­

pearstohavehitPakistanfarlesshardthan

itsneighbours.Thedeathratepermillion

inIranismorethantentimesPakistan’s.

Criticisedinspringlastyearforhisdeci­

sionnottoimposea sweepinglockdownas

Indiadid,MrKhannowappearswise.An

opinionpollattheendofAugustgavethe

primeministera 48%approvalrating,his

highestyet.Withthefullbackingofthe

deepstateguaranteed,andoppositionpar­

tiesreducedtoregionalrumps,thereisno

onesignificanttostandagainsthiminthe

nextelection,in2023.NotonlymayMr

Khan become the country’s first prime

ministertocompletea fullterm.Hemaybe

thefirsttoservetwoconsecutiveones.

Cannolongerhide

ThatwouldpleaseRawalpindi,thetwinci­

tytoIslamabadthathousesarmyhqandis

synonymouswithitsoverweeningpower.

Havingtriedcoupsd’étatinthepast,Paki­

stan’s generals, fixated on the struggle

againstafarbiggerIndiaandenjoyinga

comfortable lifestyle of “cantonments”,

havelearnedthatitisbettertoerecta pre­

sentablepoliticalfacadethantogettooin­

volvedinthemessybusinessofdirectrule.

Butthiscanbetricky.Thepreviousprime

minister,MrSharif,oftenchafedagainst

orders.NotsoMrKhan.“Bothsidesseem

tobeworkingverywelltogether,essential­

lyasoneunit,inthisgovernment,”says

MadihaAfzaloftheBrookingsInstitution,

a think­tankinWashington.

Fromthegenerals’pointofviewthereis

noambiguityabout theoutcomeinAf­

ghanistan.Itis,afterall,whattheyhave

worked for,stealthily andpatiently, for

years.Theyviewedthedepartedregimeas

atbestunreliableandatworsthostile.Cor­

rectly or not, Pakistani intelligence has

longobsessedoverIndianspiesusingAf­

ghanistanasaspringboardforsabotage.

NowPakistancanwithgreaterassurance

faceanIndiathathasgrownmoreaggres­

siveundertheHindu­nationalistgovern­

mentofNarendraModi.

ThatthecollapseinKabulwasswiftand

almostbloodlesswasanaddedbonus. An­

otherplusisthatPakistanhasshownits

closestally, China, that it wasright all

along:thattheAmericanswouldnotlast,

andthatPakistan,whichhasbeena sink

forChineseaidwithoutreallyextending

theAsianpower’sstrategicreach,mayin

theendhavesomethingtodeliver.

Hyderabad

Gwadar

Karachi

Quetta

Islamabad

Lahore

AFGHANISTAN

TAJIKISTAN

IRAN

CHINA

INDIA

PAKISTAN

Kashgar

Pakistan-

administered

Kashmir

Indian-

administered

ArabianSea

Rawalpindi

Kabul

Kandahar

Chaman

Delhi

300 km

Source: Government of Pakistan

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, selected projects

Roadupgrades/new roads

Hydro-

power

Wind

farm

Coal-fired power

station/coal mine

Solar