The Economist - USA (2021-10-09)

TheEconomistOctober9th 2021 41

China

MenacingTaiwan

Too close for comfort

I

t was adeliberate provocation, patrioti­

cally timed. On October 1st, the country’s

national day, China flew 38 aircraft, includ­

ing fighter jets and bombers, towards Tai­

wan  (one  type,  the  j­16,  is  pictured).  They

entered the island’s Air Defence Identifica­

tion Zone (adiz), a buffer region where in­

trusions  often  prompt  military  alerts.  It

was  the  year’s  daily  record.  Over  the  next

three days China sent another 111 planes. In

response,  Taiwan  scrambled  jets,  broad­

cast warnings and tracked the Chinese air­

craft with missile systems. The island’s de­

fence  minister,  Chiu  Kuo­cheng,  called  it

“the toughest situation I have seen in more

than 40 years of my military life”. 

The  skies  around  Taiwan  were  quieter

as The Economistwent to press. On October

6th China flew no military planes through

the  adiz.  So  far  none  of  the  flights  has

crossed  into  Taiwan’s  territorial  airspace,

which  extends  12  nautical  miles  (about

22km) from the island. The intruders typi­

cally fly 35 nautical miles or more from the

Taiwanese  coast.  But  American  officials

clearly share Mr Chiu’s anxiety. On October

6th  America’s  secretary  of  state,  Antony

Blinken, called on China to halt its “provo­

cative”activitynearTaiwan.Alsothatday,

JakeSullivan,PresidentJoeBiden’snation­

al security adviser, conveyed America’s

concernata meetinginSwitzerlandwith

YangJiechi,China’smostseniordiplomat

anda memberoftherulingPolitburo.

China is unabashed. Its state media

havedescribedthesortiesasa demonstra­

tionofthecountry’sabilitytoconduct“a

wartimeairattack”.InrecentyearsChina

hasbeenratchetingupdisplaysofitsgrow­

ingmilitary capability, especially at sea

andintheair,asa warningtoTaiwan.Its

messageisthatiftheislandrefusestoac­

ceptChina’sclaimtosovereigntyoverTai­

wan,Chinamayuseforce.MrChiu,a re­

tiredgeneral,toldTaiwan’sparliamenton

October6ththatChinawouldbeableto

mounta full­scaleinvasionofTaiwanby

2025,ata costthattheCommunistPartyin

Beijingmayconsiderbearable.

Taiwan’sadiz extends overapart of

China’scoast,soitisnotsurprisingthat

Chinesemilitaryaircraftoftenflyintoit

(seemap).ButChinahastakentoprobing

partsoftheadizthataremuchcloserto

theisland,skirtingaroundthesouth­west­

ernendofwhatisknownasthe“median

line”,aninformalboundaryintheTaiwan

Straitmidwaybetweentheislandandthe

mainland. China now conducts such

flightsnearsouthernTaiwanalmostevery

day.Theycouldbeintendedtoweardown

Taiwan’sdefences(itsairforce ismuch

smallerthanChina’s)andconditionitinto

treatingbigsortiesasnormalinorderto

makeit easierforChinatodisguisetheear­

lyphaseofanattackasanexercise.

Assessing China’s intentions is ex­

tremelydifficult.It isfondofsabre­rattling

whenit believesthatTaiwanismovingtoo

close to asserting permanentseparation

fromChina,orwhenAmericacosiesupto

theisland. Recent sorties may relate to

suchdevelopments. Earlierthisyearthe

Bidenadministrationsecuredpublicstate­

N EW YORK

China is sending near-daily sorties nearTaiwan,raisingfearsofa crisis

→Alsointhissection

42 SoundsofoldBeijing

44 Chaguan:WeighingupCPTPP

Median line

Taipei

CHINA

TAIWAN

Taiwan’s Air Defence

Identification Zone

Ta

iw

an

St

ra

it

200 km

Source:TaiwanMinistryofNational Defence

Selected Chinese sorties into Taiwanese airspace, 2021

Jun 1th Sep th Oct 1st-4th