The Economist - USA (2021-10-09)

46 Middle East & Africa TheEconomistOctober9th 2021

halted  the  work  of  Médecins  Sans  Fron­

tières and the Norwegian Refugee Council,

two aid organisations.

Three factors are contributing to Ethio­

pia’s  growing  isolation.  The  first  is  Abiy’s

capricious  approach  to  foreign  policy,

which  is  characterised  by  personal  rela­

tionships rather than engagement with in­

stitutions.  He  has  sidelined  the  foreign

ministry  and  closed  or  downsized  dozens

of  embassies.  He  has  alienated  foreign

leaders  with  a  string  of  unkept  promises,

such as those to allow aid to reach Tigray or

to eject Eritrean troops. And he has infuri­

ated  America  by  buying  drones  from  Iran

and snubbing American envoys.

The  second  factor  is  the  West’s  per­

ceived double standard. From 1991 to 2018,

when  the  tplfdominated  the  Ethiopian

government,  America  routinely  turned  a

blind  eye  to  its  ally’s  human­rights  viola­

tions.  Because  the  Ethiopian  army  was

helping fight jihadists in Somalia, a brutal

campaign against separatists in Ethiopia’s

own Somali region drew scant condemna­

tion. “The West emboldened the tplfand

whitewashed its past sins,” argues Zelalem

Moges, an Ethiopian lawyer. More recently,

the administration of Donald Trump sided

with Egypt and Sudan in their dispute with

Ethiopia over a huge dam it is building on

the Blue Nile. “Abiy genuinely believes the

United States is trying to overthrow him,”

notes an American diplomat. “He believes

that  he  is  this  pro­American,  liberalising

market reformer that we have shunned.”

Most  important  is  a  disagreement

about  the  wisdom  of  continuing  the  war.

“Our  demands  are  quite  simple:  end  the

war and our relations are by definition bet­

ter,” says a European diplomat. African of­

ficials, though quieter, tend to agree. Even

Russia  and  China,  which  Abiy  hopes  will

plug  any  financial  holes  left  by  cuts  in

Western  aid  and  military  assistance,  have

been reticent. Both have opposed punitive

measures in the unSecurity Council. Chi­

na has also criticised American sanctions.

But neither has offered Abiy much by way

of practical support. 

Abiy has hinted privately that he might

be open to negotiations with the tplf. The

special envoy of the African Union (au) to

the Horn of Africa, former Nigerian Presi­

dent  Olusegun  Obasanjo,  has  reportedly

been given permission to sound out the Ti­

grayan  leadership.  But  the  tplf,  which

considers the aubiased against it, may not

accept  its  mediation.  The  prime  minister,

for  his  part,  made  no  mention  of  talks  in

his  inaugural  address  and  seems  deter­

mined  instead  to  launch  a  new  offensive.

That may force the hand of America, which

is  deciding  whether  to  suspend  duty­free

access for Ethiopian goods under the Afri­

can  Growth  and  OpportunityAct.  Already

bad, relations between Ethiopia and its al­

lies are set to sink further.n

Y

ellowdaisiesblossom,likepoppies

inFlanders,amongthebodiesrotting

inthefields.Oftheirformerlivesonly

glimpsesremain:a scarfsoakedinmud;

a tornfragmentofuniform;thetoeofa

plasticsandalpokingthroughthedirt.

Somehavebeenburiedunderstonesand

leaves.Othershavebeenlefttolieinthe

open,limbsravagedbydogs,torsos

blackenedandbloatedfromtherain.

Notmuchisknownforcertainabout

whathappenedinChenna,a villagein

theAmhararegionofnorthernEthiopia,

intheearlydaysofSeptember.Therewas

certainlya battle,a fearsomeone,forthe

evidenceofthatiseverywhere—inthe

ransackedhomes,theslaughteredcows,

thebulletcasingsandtheartilleryshells.

Duringa recentvisit,yourcorrespondent

couldheartheblastsofdistantartillery.

Localsburiedatleast 56 bodies:civil­

ians,theysay,murderedbyrebelsfrom

Tigray.Officialsputthenumberhigher

still,atnearly200.BazeKisade,a farmer,

sayshecamehometofindtwoofhis

brothersdead,shotinthehead,their

handstiedbehindtheirbacks.Agera

Tareke,a priest,saysTigrayanfighters

brokeintohishomeandkilledhisfather

infrontofhim.TheleaderofChenna

villagecountsanentirefamilyofsix

amongthedead.

Whethertherewasa cold­blooded

massacreremainsunclear.Nodoubt

civiliansdiedintheweek­longbattle

betweentheTigrayanPeople’sLiberation

Front(tplf) andgovernmentforces

supportedbyAmharaparamilitaries.

Tigrayanfightersfoughtfrompeople’s

homesandwerebombardedbythearmy

froma nearbymountainside.Itseems

likelythattherebelsshotinnocentcivil­

iansastheywerepushedback.Buta

largenumberofvillagersthemselves

joinedthebattle,aswellasresidentsand

studentsfromnearbytowns.Sometook

uparmswhileotherstendedtothe

woundedorfetchedwaterforthetroops.

Theblurrylinebetweencivilianand

combatantmakesit difficulttoknowthe

trueextentofanywarcrimes.

Whatisbeyonddoubtisthatthe

advanceofTigrayanrebelsintoadjacent

regionssinceJulyhasbroughtgreat

sufferingtocivilians.InKobo,a townin

easternAmhara,dozensif nothundreds

werekilledinearlySeptember.Asin

Chenna,many—butbynomeansall—

wereprobablymilitiamenorfarmers

carryingguns.ElsewhereTigrayantroops

havereportedlyshelledvillagesand

lootedclinics.

tplfleadersjustifytheiroffensiveby

arguingtheyhavetoforceAbiyAhmed,

theprimeminister,tothenegotiating

table.Butsomespeakofrevenge.Thewar

haswroughtdevastationinTigray;towns

havebeenpillaged,civiliansslaughtered

andwomengang­raped.Nowtheregion

isundersiegeandstarving(seemap).Yet

inAmhara,too,localsdescribea warof

survival.“Thetplfisgoingtodestroy

AmharaandEthiopia,”saysSolomon

Alebachew,a militialeader.“I’llbefight­

inguntilmylastdropofblood.”

Ethiopia’sbrutalwar

Bodies inthe fields

C HENNA

Neithersidehascleanhandsinthebloodyconflict

Amhara Afar

Tigray

ETHIOPIA

SUDAN Mekelle

Asmara

Kobo

Chenna

LakeTana

Red

Sea

ERITREA

Foodinsecurity,Nov 202-Jan 2022*

Source:FEWSNET *Forecast

Emergency Crisis Stressed Minimal

00 km

Caught in the middle