The Economist October 9th 2021 49
EuropeTurkey
Bosporus blues
T
here is nosuch thing as a bad view of
the Bosporus, the waterway that di
vides Istanbul between Europe and Asia.
But the one from the bridge of the Gas Co-
bia, a 180metre tanker, as it makes its way
from the Sea of Marmara to the Black Sea, is
hard to beat. Ottoman palaces slide past.
Hagia Sophia soaks up the morning sun.
The towers of the Rumeli Hisari, the for
tress Sultan Mehmet IIused to choke off
supplies to the city he later conquered,
march down to the shore. Passenger ferries
and fishing boats bounce on the waves.
For Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Er
dogan, one Bosporus is not enough. So he
is building another. In June, at a ground
breaking ceremony for a bridge over the Sa
zlidere, a river on Istanbul’s western fring
es, Turkey’s leader announced he was
starting work on a giant canal, known as
Kanal Istanbul, bypassing the Bosporus al
together. A tender linked to the project, for
housing units close to the Sazlidere, took
place on October 7th. The new waterway
would stretch for 45km (28 miles), turn the
city’s European side into an island, and
cost at least $15bn. Mr Erdogan himself de
scribes the canal as a “crazy project”, pre
sumably in a good way. Critics describe it
as the biggest rentseeking exercise in Tur
key’s history and a recipe for an environ
mental disaster.
Mr Erdogan’s pitch comes down to safe
ty and money. The canal, he says, would be
easier to navigate than the Bosporus, re
duce congestion in one of the world’s busi
est channels and bring in new revenue.
Under the Montreux Convention, signed in
1936, civilian vessels can pass through the
Bosporus and the Dardanelles, the straits
linking the Sea of Marmara and the Medi
terranean, free of charge. (Only the littoral
states of the Black Sea are allowed to send
warships through.) But traffic can lead to
long waiting times. Mr Erdogan’s hope is
that ships will pay transit fees to jump the
queue and use his canal.Aboard the Gas Cobia, Captain Ismail
Akpinar shouts instructions at the ship’s
crew (“Steady, zero two zero”). The Bospo
rus passage involves a dozen sharp turns of
up to 80 degrees, currents of up to four
knots (7kph) and shallow waters. For a
small fee, shipping agents turn to experi
enced pilots like Captain Akpinar for help.
They have every reason to do so. Ships
regularly suffer engine or rudder problems
during the passage. Three years ago, a tank
er ploughed into a waterside mansion,
causing over $30m in damages. The much
greater danger, for a city that is home to
more than 15m people, is a spill or an explo
sion. “If a mediumsized lpg tanker blows
up here, nothing within a 3km radius sur
vives,” says the captain.
But in fact the Bosporus, contrary to the
government’s claims, is becoming easier to
navigate. The number of transits has fallen
steadily, from 56,606 in 2007 to 38,404 last
year. Thanks to skilful pilots, new traffic
regulations and gps technology, safety has
been improving. No big, deadly accident
has taken place in more than 40 years.
Waiting times average less than 14 hours.
Many analysts say building a new wa
terway next to an existing one makes no
sense. With the Montreux Convention in
place, ships that prefer to use the Bosporus
and pay nothing would still be able to do
so, notes Serhat Guvenc, a professor at Ka
dir Has University. The canal would only
marginally reduce waiting times, he says.
It would also be much more exposed to the
storms that occasionally roil the Black Sea,
says Yoruk Isik, a shipping analyst. “ItI STANBUL
Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s dream risks becoming Istanbul’s nightmare
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