TheEconomistOctober9th 2021
Graphic detail Nobel prizes85Noblesse oblige
T
henobelprizes,whosewinnersare
announced this month (see Science),
may be the world’s most coveted awards.
As soon as a new crop of laureates is
named, critics start comparing the victors’
achievements with those of previous win
ners, reigniting debates over past snubs.
A full account of why, say, Stephen
Hawking was passed over will have to wait
until 2068: the Nobel Foundation’s rules
prevent disclosure about the selection pro
cess for 50 years. But once this statute of
limitations ends, the foundation reveals
who offered nominations, and whom they
endorsed. Its data start in 1901 and end in
1953 for medicine; 1966 for physics, chem
istry and literature; and 1967 for peace. (The
economics prize was first awarded in 1969.)
Nomination lists do not explain omis
sions like Leo Tolstoy (who got 19 nomina
tions)orMahatmaGandhi(whogot12).But
they do show that in 190166, Nobel voters
handed out awards more in the style of a
private members’ club than of a survey of
expert opinion. Whereas candidates with
lots of nominations often fell short, those
with the right backers—like Albert Ein
stein or other laureates—fared better.
The bar to a Nobel nomination is low.
For the peace prize, public officials, jurists
and the like submit names to a committee,
chosen by Norway’s parliament, that picks
the winner. For the others, Swedish acade
mies solicit names from thousands of peo
ple, mostly professors, and hold a vote for
the laureate. On average, 55 nominations
per year were filed for each prize in 190166.
Historically, voters paid little heed to
consensus among nominators. In litera
ture and medicine, the candidate with the
most nominations won just 11% and 12% of
the time; in peace and chemistry, the rates
were 23% and 26%. Only in physics, at
42%, did nomination leaders have a big ad
vantage. In 1956 Ramón Menéndez Pidal, a
linguist and historian, got 60% of nomina
tions for the literature prize, but still lost.
However, voters did make one group of
nominators happy: current and future laureates.Candidatesputforwardbypastvic
tors went on to win at some point in the fu
ture 40% more often than did those whose
nominators never won a Nobel. People
whose nominators became laureates later
on also won unusually often. This implies
that being accomplished enough to merit
future Nobel consideration was sufficient
to gain extra influence over voters.
In theory, this imbalance could simply
reflect laureates nominating stronger can
didates. However, at least one Nobel win
ner seems to have boosted his nominees’
chances, rather than merely naming su
perstars who would have won anyway.
According to the Nobel Foundation’s
online archive, all 11 of Einstein’s nominees
won a prize. Some were already famous,
like Max Planck; others, like Walther Bo
the, were lesserknown. In two cases, his
support seems to have been decisive.
In 1940 Einstein supported Otto Stern, a
physicist who had already had 60 nomina
tions. Stern won the next time the prize
was given. Similarly, Wolfgang Pauli,
whose “exclusion principle” is central to
quantum mechanics, had received 20
nominations before Einstein backedhim
in 1945. He got his prize that same year.nNobel laureates have had extra sway
over who gets to join their club→ Getting lots of nominations is no guarantee of a Nobel prize—unless the nominations come from other laureatesShareofnominationsfortheliteratureprize,%CandidatesnominatedbyAlbertEinsteinusuallywonwithina fewyearsSource:NobelFoundation*Forprizesthatweregivena yearlate,nominationsareback-datedtotheofficialyearoftheaward.Threecandidates
notshown†Ratioofprizeswonanytimeaftera nominationtothenumberexpected,if allnominatorshadequalinfluence,inyearofnominationPost-nominationwinratio†,1901-PrizesnotawardedNominator IspastNobelwinner Neverwon NobelPeaceLiteratureChemistryPhysicsMedicine0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.001020304050601900 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65Nomination leader Winner BothRamónMenéndezPidal
gets60%ofnominations
butstillfailstowinRobert Frost is snubbed again,
after 31 nominations dating
back to 1950ThomasMann,thewinnerin
199,successfullynominates
fellowGermanHermanHessePrizes not
awardedLeo Tolstoy earns the most
nominations, but the prize
goes to Theodor MommsenWaltherBotheWolfgangPauliOttoSternErwinSchrödingerWernerHeisenbergCarlBoschGustavHertzMaxPlanck1905 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60Einstein among nominators* Ye s No Nominations 1 5 1Won