MONEYWEEK 8October 2021 moneyweek.com
12 Politics&economics
TheToriesareaheadint he polls,
Covid-19 restrictionsare easing,
andthe pr imeministe r’s
position is secure –you might
expectConservativeMPs and
activiststobecock-a-hoop, says
the Steerpike blog ger at The
Spectator. Yetdespite the
“throngi ng crowdsandwarm
white wine beingguzzled”, a
“strange gloom” filled theair atthis week’s Toryconfer ence.It
seemedtoe manate from thePM
himself –membershavebeen
quietlyasking: “Issomething
wrongwithBoris?”
He’sjusttired,one insider
suggested,and Johnsondid
seemtohaveperkedupfor his
speech,whichwaslively ,full of
jokes, andwill likely have
reassuredhis supporters.But
it’s not hispersonalityor ener gy,
or lackof it, buthispoliciesthat
will havedisma yedsome
activistsand backbenchers,says
SimonJenkinsinT he Guardian.
Thepartyfaithful has
“weathered many astormy
U-turn”overthe years, but
Boris’spromisestoh ike
minimumwages, raisetaxes
andsteer industr yhas rippedanysenseof Conservative
“intellectual coherence” to
“ribbons”. Still, whatelsecould
youexpectfromBoris Johnson?
Some senseofc oheren ce
wouldhavebeenicethou gh.
Promisingahigh-wage
economyis onething,says
Daniel Finkelste in says in The
Times, but“where’s the
substance”? “Sustainable high-
wage jobsresultfromworkers
beingemplo yedmore
productivelyandaddingmore
valuetot he economy. They
don’tjustappea rbecauseyou
stop migrantsenter ingthe
country.” Thosehopingfor ideas
from Boris’sspeechabouthow
thatwill beachieved will have
gone away disappointed. ©GettyImages©GettyImagesBritai n’sfraying suppl ylines
Is Brexit and theTory government to blame? MatthewPartridge reports
PrimeMinisterBoris
Johnsonisengaged in
a“warofwords”with
farmersand busine ss
over sh ortages, says
Sebastia nPayne in the
FinancialTimes.The
food androad-haulage
industries in particular
have blamed recent fuel
shortagesand supply-
chaindisruptionon
Britain ’s more re strictive
immigratio npolicy,
which they claimhas
createdashortage of
workers. In response,the
government hasargued
that firmsare at fault
fornot properly preparing forthe endofthe free
movement of labour within theEUand continuing
to useimmigra tion as “anexcusefor failureto
invest in people, in skillsand in th eequipment or
machinerytheyneedtodotheirjobs”.
Aprice worthpayingfor long-termwage gains
ThePMisright,saysThe Sun. Cheapimmigrant
labo ur has“allowed big busine ss to drive down
pay” fordecades anditwas always “inevita ble”
that there were goingtobesomebumps in the
road onceBrexit rules reducedthe su pply of it.
Theshort-termprobl emsmay be “painful ”and
“annoying” forsomecompanies,but they area
“price worthpayingfor long-termwagegains”.
Instead ofcomplaining, firmsshouldbe grateful
that they “havealready beenbailed out tothetune
of hundreds of billions of pounds to keep them
afloat andsavejobsduringthe pandemic”.
Indeed,and it’s notasifBritain is theonly
countryhavingtodealwiththese issues, says
CahalMilmo in th einewspaper.Thereare
shortagesoflorry driversacros sEurope–hauliers
andretailers arenow “payingthe pricefor a
failuretoa ttract workers into an in dustry where
theaverag eage is now
53,withjustone in 50
lorrydrivers aged 25
or under”.The stresses
to supply anddemand
caused by government
responsesto Covid-1 9
have also hitglobal
supplychains–theprice
of shipping acargo
container hasrisen
four-fold;the average
door -to-doorshipping
time hasrisenfrom
days to 70.It’s worseinBritain
Some of thesupply-
chainprobl emsare
indeed clearly theresultof“ temporaryforces
beyond ministerial control ”, says TheEconomist.
Still,itr emains ha rd to deny that theprobl ems
are“especiallyacute”inBritain. In addition to
global factors, supplychainsendinginBritain have
been“stressed” by Brexit-related form-filling;
taxtweakshavealsoaffectedtake-home payfor
somelorrydrivers,att he same time as thenumber
of driversfromthe EU hasfallen by morethan
12,000,or1 0% of thetotal;and thegovernment’s
lack of communicatio nand transparency has
contributedtothe panic-buyingofpetrol.
If thegovernment’smore restrictive immi gration
policies were re ally“upending”Britain ’s low- pay,
low-productivi ty model, then that wouldbeagreat
thing, says PollyToynbee in TheGuardian. Sadly,
theevidence so faristhatiti sn’t.The number of jo bs
offered on zero-hours contractsis“ increasing,not
declining”.And data fr om theOffice forNational
Statisticssuggeststhatgrowthmay alreadyhave
stalled,withrealwages down in July from where
they were in April(thelatestfigures available).
If what Johnsonisc allinga“period of adjustment”
turns out to be pe rmanent, then he “may cometo
regret”claimingthatitwas aprice worthpaying.ThenextbigEuropean
electiononthehorizon
istheFrench
presidentialcontest,due
totakeplaceovertwo
rounds,withthefirst
roundinApril 2022 and
thesecondinMay.
Recenthistoryshows
thattheincumbent
strugglestoretainagrip
ontheÉlyséePalace–
NicolasSarkozylostto
FrançoisHollandein
2012 ;bythetimethe
nextelectiontookplace
fiveyearslaterin 201 7,
Hollandewasso
unpopularhedidn’t
evenbothertorun
forre-election.
Thistime,however,
puntersevidentlydon’t
expectrecenthistoryto
repeatitself.With
£3 79 ,5 87 matchedon
Betfair,Emmanuel
Macron(pictured)isthe
clearfavouritetoretain
thepresidencyat1. 71
(58.4%).Insecondplace
isthehard-rightTV
punditÉricZemmourat- 4 (15.6%);thefar-right
MarineLePenisinthird
placeat 9 .6( 10 .4%).
Centre-rightcandidate
XavierBertrandisquite
awaybackinfourth
placewith 1 6. 5 (6.1%).
Youshouldbeton
Macrontobere-elected
asLe PenandZemmour
aresoextreme that they
will surely comfortably
lose. Macron’s appr oval
rati ng is still negative,
but hispopularity has
rebo undedoverthe last
year to thepoint where
he shouldcomfortably
getintothe second
round. Still,I’d beton
Bertrandaswellas
there’sanoutside
chance he couldsneak
into the second round if
Le Penand Zemmour
splittheir votes. So if
youwanttosplit a£
bettingunit, put£9.
on Macron and£0.87 on
Bertrandfor combined
odds of 62%.Boris’s speech:good jokes,nos ubstanceThepetrolcrisis:atemporaryperiodofadjustment?Johnson: weirdly subdued©GettyImagesBettingon
politics