Bloomberg Businessweek - USA (2019-07-22)

◼ POLITICS Bloomberg Businessweek July 22, 2019

35

● PresidentBolsonarosees

theheadofBrazil’slowerhouse

asa potentialrival

Aftergettingwindofa possiblecongressional

proposaltostriphimofsomepowers,Brazil’s

PresidentJairBolsonarocomplainedthatthe

country’slawmakerswanttomakehima ceremo-

nialheadofstate,likethequeenofEngland.That

hasn’thappenedyet,butwhenit comestosetting

thenation’slegislativeagenda,it’sclearwhohas

therealpower:RodrigoMaia,thespeakerofthe

nation’slowerhouse.

OnJuly11,the49-year-oldpoliticianfromthe

center-rightDemocrataspartypusheda revamp

ofBrazil’sgeneroussocialsecuritysystempastits

firstandhighestlegislativehurdle.Pensionreform

is a necessitythathaseludedfourpreviousadmin-

istrations.Beforesuccessfullygettingit throughthe

lowerhouse,Maiahadspentmonthsuniting 17 frac-

tiouspartiestofinallydelivera measureexpected

tosavealmost 1 trillionreais($267billion)overthe

nextdecade.“RodrigoMaiabuilta parliamentary

base,whichthegovernmentdoesn’tdoanddoesn’t

have,”saysAlexandreFrota,a congressmanfrom

Bolsonaro’sownSocialLiberalParty(PSL).“Brazil

is goingtothankhiminthefuture.”

Bolsonarohassquanderedmuchofhispoliti-

calcapitalbecauseofhisbelligerenceandpen-

chantforfightingculturewars.ThatleavesMaiato

deliverorfrustratethegovernment’sagenda—and

toholdBrazil’sdemocracytogether.Maiahimself

sayshe’smerelyfillinga void.“Untilnow,theexec-

utivepowerhasnotputforwardanagendaforthe

mainissues,frommypointofview,”hesaidina

textmessageinterview.

Thespeakerhasembracedpro-marketaspects

ofBolsonaro’sprogrambutblockedsomeofthe

president’smoreinflammatoryproposals,includ-

inga decreetoloosenguncontrollaws.Maia

alsodelayedanticrimeplanspushedbyJustice

MinisterSergioMoro,a herotorightistsforhis

roleinimprisoningformerPresidentLuizInácio

LuladaSilvaoncorruptionchargesandanally

ofBolsonaro’s.

Nowhere have Maia’s skills been more evident

than in his handling of the social security bill—a

flagship economic policy, albeit one Bolsonaro

himself has embraced with scant enthusiasm.

Brazil spends more on pensions than most of its

peers and offers favorable terms to its well-paid

civil servants, many of whom retire in their 50s.

The retirement fund runs on a deficit, which drives

upBrazil’spublicdebtandrisksconsumingthe

entiretyofthebudget. Education receives only a

tenth of what’s spent on pensions. With a rapidly

aging population and a constitutional limit on over-

all federal spending, the current system threatens

to devastate Latin America’s biggest economy.

Maiahadtosteerthebilldowna perilouspath

throughtheChamberofDeputies.Thebodyboasts

nofewerthan 26 parties, and the PSL itself rep-

resents only about 10% of its lawmakers. After a

final vote in the lower house, the bill will move

to the Senate in August. “Without Rodrigo Maia,

we wouldn’t have gotten to this moment,” PSL

Congressman Waldir Soares de Oliveira said as he

declared his party’s support.

Born in Santiago, Chile, where his father was

in exile during Brazil’s military dictatorship, Maia

attended college in Rio de Janeiro but didn’t earn a

degree.Aftera briefbankingcareer,hefollowedhis

fatherintopoliticsandis inhissixthtermrepresent-

ingthestateofRio.Pale,paunchy,andsoft-spoken

to the point of seeming shy, he occasionally displays

a nervous facial tic—and a ferocious temper. Once,

during a protest of a labor-reform bill on the house

floor, he cursed one lawmaker and shoved another.

First elected as speaker in 2016 after the polar-

izing impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff,

Lula’s successor, Maia proved adept at handling the

house’s warring factions. Those include some who

loathe Bolsonaro and support Lula and Rousseff ’s

Workers’ Party; others who support Bolsonaro and

loathe the Workers’ Party; and the amorphous “big

center,” a group of ideologically flexible parties that

gravitates toward money or power.

His failures have been few: Maia is shrewd

enough to avoid scheduling votes on issues he’s

unlikely to win. In 2017, however, he suffered a

narrow defeat in the lower house in a vote over

changestoa laborreformbill.Undeterred,he

scheduledanothervoteonthesamequestion

24 hours later and won. Opposition lawmakers

condemned him as a coup-monger, but the tac-

tic worked. Since Bolsonaro came to power, Maia

has “embraced the economic agenda of the gov-

ernment, he’s put a brake on the values agenda,”

says Thomaz Favaro, lead Brazil analyst at consult-

ing firm Control Risks.

Right before the final vote on pension reform,

Maia assailed those who attack Brazil’s institu-

tions, a pointed reference to Bolsonaro’s more

radical supporters, who want to retire the courts

and Congress and render all government power

to Bolsonaro. “There will be no private invest-

ment, even with a tax reform, even with a pension

reform, if we don’t have a strong democracy,”

“Without

Rodrigo Maia,

we wouldn’t

have gotten to

this moment”

ALOISIO MAURICIA/FOTOARENA/ZUMA PRESS. DATA: AMERICAS SOCIETY/COUNCIL OF THE AMERICAS

30%

20

10

1/11/19 7/5/19

● Share of survey

respondents who say

Jair Bolsonaro is doing

a “bad” or “awful” job as

Brazil’s president