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INTERNATIONAL
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“cease performing its commitments” in “whole or
in part” should the U.S. reimpose certain sanctions.
Given the deal’s “reliance on temporary suspensions
of sanctions, waivers, and other workarounds, it
very much depends on the support of the American
president to function as envisioned by its architects,”
says Torbjorn Soltvedt, an analyst at global risk con-
sulting firm Verisk Maplecroft in the U.K.
Europeans have gotten pushback from some top
U.S. officials, including national security adviser
John Bolton, who advocate the use of force against
Iran and have signaled their preference for regime
change. Since May, when the U.S. suspended waiv-
ers that allowed for surpluses of low-enriched ura-
nium to be sent abroad, Iran has surpassed limits
on its stockpile. It’s now also enriching to higher lev-
els of purity than those allowed under the JCPOA.
Enriched uranium is used to fuel nuclear plants but
can also be used to build bombs.
These moves, while provocative, don’t pose an
imminent proliferation risk, and Iran has said they
could be reversed “within hours” if sanctions were
suspended. Nevertheless, the country has attempted
to use them as leverage to push the remaining par-
ties to the deal—the U.K., France, Germany, Russia,
and China—to accelerate attempts to get around U.S.
trade prohibitions. “The Europeans believe that this
was important for their security. If it is important
fortheirsecurity,thenyouinvestinyoursecurity,”
IranianForeignMinisterMohammadJavadZarifsaid
toBloombergTelevisionina July17 interview. “The
Europeans need to take the necessary action.”
France, the U.K., and Germany have worked over
the past year to develop Instex, a financial channel
meant to provide European companies with a trad-
ing vehicle to sell goods and services to Iran with-
out using dollars, routing transactions through U.S.
banks, or moving money across the Iranian border.
Instex has yet to process its first transaction and◀ Bonne, left, meeting
with Ali Shamkhani,
secretary of Iran’s
security councilwould initially be limited to food and drugs, which
aren’t targeted by U.S. bans. Iran also wants the tool
to process oil sales, the main source of revenue for
the country and subject to U.S. penalties.
“Europe neither has the will to face up to the
U.S., nor is it capable of acting as a fully sovereign
and united entity in a global financial system domi-
nated by the U.S.,” says Ali Vaez, director of the Iran
Project at the Brussels-based International Crisis
Group. Still, getting Instex up and running, even
in its current form, would send a message to Iran
that Europe is a credible partner. It would also help
Rouhani push back against hardliners at home who
advocate maximum resistance against the U.S.
Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow at the
European Council of Foreign Relations, says other
small initiatives could be possible with help from
Russia and China. If Iran were to freeze its nuclear
escalation for a few months in return for a “realistic
deliverable,” she says, “this will provide a cooling-off
period and create space for Europeans to think more
creatively about what they can deliver.”
One deliverable, floated by Iranian Vice President
Eshaq Jahangiri in state media in early July, might be
for the European Union and China to help find buy-
ers for Iranian oil supplied in the future, in return for
advance investment, goods, or services, allowing it
access to credit. “The idea is to keep the basic pillars
of the JCPOA in place until the 2020 elections in the
U.S.,” Geranmayeh says. “From the Europeans’ per-
spective, this would be a real achievement.”
Regardless of who gets elected, she says, “it’s
going to be easier for any administration to engage
Iran if the nuclear issue is somewhat in check rather
than having to start from scratch.” �Ladane Nasseri
andHeleneFouquetTHE BOTTOM LINE The terms of the JCPOA make it harder for
Europe to salvage the deal with Iran, whose nuclear activities the
EU nations also oppose.