The Econmist - USA (2021-10-09)

The Economist October 9th 2021 United States 43

Warfroma distance

Droning on

D

roneshavebeena commonsightin

theskiesaboveAfghanistan,butrarely

hadonetraineditsgazeonthecapital,Ka­

bul.OnAugust29th,asAmericawashasti­

lywithdrawingitsremainingsoldiersand

Afghanrefugeesthroughthecity’sairport,

a dronestrucka whiteToyotaCorolla.After

thestrike,GeneralMarkMilley,America’s

topmilitaryofficial,calledita “righteous”

strike, andthePentagonclaimed it had

thwartedanimminentattackonAmerican

forces.Infactnoterroristshadbeenkilled

andsevenofthetenvictimswerechildren.

PresidentJoeBidenbrokewithhisformer

boss, Barack Obama, in withdrawing

troopsfromAfghanistan.LikeMrObama,

henowfacesa choiceonhowextensively

tousedronestoreplacesoldiersandpilots.

MrBidenhaspledgedtoconduct“over­

the­horizon” counterterrorism opera­

tions,chieflyusingarmeddrones,inAf­

ghanistan,topursueterroristswhilere­

ducingthetoll ofthewar onterroron

Americans.Yet asthe experience ofMr

Obamaandhissuccessor,DonaldTrump,

suggests,dronestrikeshavehardlyproved

a strategicsuccess.AsSamuelMoynofYale

Universityarguesinhisrecentlypublished

book“Humane,” suchattemptsto make

thewarlesslethalmayhavemadeit harder

toend.MrBiden’sstrategyappearstobe

justtheformulafora moresustainable,but

nolessbrutal,waronterror.

Astroopcasualties mountedandthe

public opinion turned under President

George W. Bush, drones emerged as a

meansoflong­distancefighting.Firstde­

ployedjustweeksafterSeptember11th,it

wasMrObamawhogreatlyexpandedtheir

use. The rationale was clear. America

wouldnolongerrelyonvulnerableground

forces.Dronescouldstrikeasfarafieldas

Pakistan, Libya, Yemen, and Somalia—

placeswhereAmericawasnot,officially,at

war.Killingterrorists,ratherthanseizing

theminbattle,couldalsosolvetheGuantá­

namoproblem.“Ifnoonewascaptured,no

onecouldbemistreated,”writesMrMoyn.

KeentowithdrawtroopsfromIraqand,

eventually,Afghanistan,MrObamadirect­

edmoredronestrikesinhisfirstyearthan

MrBushhadinhisentirepresidency.A

briefpreparedinMarchof 2009 bytheDe­

partmentofJusticelaidouttheadminis­

tration’scontortedlegaljustification.It de­

claredthatthewaronterroroperatedona

globalbattlefield. Norwoulditbelimited

toal­Qaedaand“associatedforces”:even

thosewithtenuoustieslikeal­Shababin

Somalia,werefairgame.MrMoynargues

thisgavepermissiontostriketargetsthat

didnotposean“imminent”threat,asin­

ternationallawdemands.Attheheightof

Mr Obama’s drone campaign in 2010,

America’s armed forces launched 128

strikesinPakistanalone.

Despite Mr Obama’s insistence that

dronescouldpreciselytargetAmerica’sen­

emies,therisingvolumeofstrikesensured

civiliancasualtiesrosealso.Withupto 560

civilian deaths in Pakistan alone from

2009 to2011,theunandcivilsocietycalled

forreform.GuidanceissuedbytheWhite

Housein 2013 attemptedtoplacelimitson

thelethalityofthedronecampaignbeyond

Afghanistan and Iraq. The document

pledgedstrikeswouldnotoccurwithouta

“nearcertainty”thatnon­terroristswould

notbekilled.

Ithelpedstemtheworstexcesses:by

2016,strikescausedfewerthantencivilian

deaths in Pakistan, Somalia andYemen

combined.OnthebattlefieldinAfghani­

stan,Iraq and,after2014,Syria,military

lawyerscounselledcommanders ontar­

getingdecisions—abovea certainthresh­

old for predicted civilian casualties, a

strike would require permission from

higher authorities.MrObama expressed

hopethatthis“legal architecture”could

ensure“anypresident’sreinedin.”

PresidentDonaldTrumpeasilydiscard­

edMrObama’srulesinhisfirstyearinof­

fice,givingcommandersgreaterflexibility

in choosing their targets. The tempo of op­

erations rose, and their reach expanded to

new  places  like  Niger.  Nowhere  was  this

escalation more dramatic than in Afghani­

stan,  where  as  many  as  130  civilians  per­

ished in strikes in 2017. Even so, their effec­

tiveness  is  open  to  debate.  In  the  two  de­

cades  since  2001,  estimates  the  Centre  for

Strategic  and  International  Studies  in

Washington,  dc,  the  number  of  Sunni  Is­

lamic  militants  grew  fourfold,  though

thankfully they have not pulled­off a dev­

astating attack on American soil. “The as­

sumption that there was no substitutabil­

ity was wrong,” says Sarah Kreps of Cornell

University,  with  new  terrorist  leaders  re­

placing the dead. 

Buzz on

Mr Biden has sought to rein in the excesses

of his predecessor and return to a more re­

strained  policy.  While  his  administration

prepares  new  guidance,  Mr  Biden  has  re­

quired the Pentagon and ciato seek White

House approval for strikes outside Afghan­

istan, Iraq and Syria. But Mr Biden has no

intention  of  ending  their  use.  He  boasts

that  even  without  a  presence  in  Afghani­

stan,  his  administration  will  continue  to

strike  terrorist  organisations  in  Afghani­

stan  from  the  safety  of  America’s  ships  at

sea and bases in the Middle East.

Such a strategy may not prove effective,

or  humane.  As  General  Kenneth  “Frank”

McKenzie,  America’s  top  military  official

in the Middle East and Central Asia, admit­

ted to Congress in testimony on September

28th,  long­distance  drone  attacks  neces­

sarily  rely  on  weaker  intelligence  without

nearby  bases  and  local  partner  forces.

More mistakes, like the August 29th strike

in Kabul, are thus likely even after the Pen­

tagon  completes  its  investigation.  Ms

Kreps  is  not  sure  Americans will  give

drones much mind. “Afterthedust settles,

we will still be using them.”n

WASHINGTON, DC

The president is weighing how extensively to use drones. More civilian casualties

abroad seem the likeliest outcome

Somewhere, over the horizon