44 United States The Economist October 9th 2021
Democratic discipline
I
f perception isa construct of language, as an American anthro
pologist called Benjamin Lee Whorf argued, how Joe Biden’s par
ty must rue the phrase “Democrats in disarray”. Ever since its first
appearance, in local newspapers during the 1960s, journalists
have reached for the alliterative term whenever Democrats have
argued among themselves—whether existentially, as during their
1980s wilderness years; or in the normal course of hammering out
a consensus among their many parts. Perusal of the New York
Timeswebsite finds Democrats in deep disarray during the 1992
presidential primary, shortly before they nominated Bill Clinton,
and straight after the 2006 midterms, at which they became the
first party to control the House and Senate in over a decade.
Their recent performance on the Hill—to which the epithet has
also been applied—might appear more deserving of it. After Sen
ate Democrats struck an impressive bipartisan infrastructure
deal, the party’s slightly bigger majority in the House failed to pass
it. Leftwingers insisted the bill had to move in tandem with a par
tisan budget bill, containing trillions of dollars of climate and so
cialpolicy spending that had been making some moderates quea
sy. Together the bills represent most of Joe Biden’s domestic policy
ambitions. Yet Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic House Speaker, was
forced to set them aside.
For Representative Josh Gottheimer, this was a case of the “far
left” of his party employing “Freedom Caucus tactics” to “destroy
the president’s agenda”. Strong stuff—which must have resonated
with Mr Gottheimer’s many conservative constituents (he became
in 2017 the first Democrat to win his New Jersey district since 1933).
Yet it was inaccurate. The contents of the budget package are also
Mr Biden’s agenda. Harnessing the two bills, as the president him
self later acknowledged, has made it likelier that both will eventu
ally pass. Moreover, far from aping the headbangers of the Repub
lican Freedom Caucus, House leftwingers, led by Pramila Jayapal
of Washington, have suggested they will make whatever compro
mise is necessary.
At the outset of this process, the left demanded that the budget
bill contain $6trn worth of largely unfunded tax cuts and spend
ing. After moderates demurred, they came down to $3.5trn, paid
for by tax rises and spread over a decade. Most Democrats were
happywiththat.Butamonga handful of holdouts, Senator Joe
Manchin, a conservative and opponent of ambitious climate
change policy, said he could not countenance a package costing
more than $1.5trn. Ms Jayapal suggested this week she would settle
for $2.5trn, and Mr Manchin, an inveterate wheelerdealer, that he
“ruled nothing out.” Without underestimating the difficulties the
party still faces in trying to push through its agenda, this looks less
like a genuine crisis than the cut and thrust of legislating.
That is something, as the infrastructure deal briefly recalled,
that the parties used to engage in together. The idea was that by
winning over a sufficient number of sensibles from the other side
the governing party could render its own radicals irrelevant. The
fact that the Democrats now have no option but to go it alone on
climate change and other big problems that the donothing Re
publicans ignore has therefore given the party’s extremists a big
ger say. Especially considering its tiny majorities: to pass the bud
get bill, the Democrats can afford to lose only three votes from
their caucus in the House and none in the Senate. Yet the intra
party wrestling this has occasioned is distracting from another big
change. The Democrats are for the most part unanimous.
According to scorekeeping by the website FiveThirtyEight,
House Democrats are the most unified caucus of the past three
Congresses; 203 of their 223 members have voted with Mr Biden
100% of the time. So, for that matter, has Mr Manchin. There are a
few reasons for this strange togetherness.
Lacking a central creed—of the sort that Republicans once
found in conservatism and now find in Donald Trump—the
Democrats are more a collaboration of interest groups. Hence
their periodic quarrelsomeness. Yet they have in recent years be
come less ideologically diverse, especially on economic policy, on
which they have reached an interventionist consensus. Moderates
and leftists still disagree—often wildly—about the details. Yet Mr
Biden, the Democratic centreofgravity made flesh, has set pa
rameters that both seem able to live within. During last year’s
primary, leftwingers spoke of abolishing private health insur
ance. Their current wrangle with Mr Manchin over renewable
power incentivesseems constrained by comparison.
That is less a testament to Mr Biden’s authority (which has been
tested in recent weeks, as his ratings have plummeted) than the
fact that all Democrats are keen to govern. The party’s base expects
them to; no Democrat has been elected on a promise to torpedo its
agenda as members of the rightwing Freedom Caucus were. Even
the most ardent leftwingers have therefore, in the end, proved
willing to compromise. And the spectre of Mr Trump—whose rise
Democrats often attribute to the failures of the governing system
over many years—makes it even likelier that this pattern will en
dure. “We will get it done,” Ms Jayapal assured your columnist,
when asked whether she would in any circumstance be willing to
let the bills fail. Even with such little margin for slippage, that still
seems the likeliest outcome.
The wages of governing
Whether such a victory would improve Mr Biden’s miserable rat
ings is another matter entirely. Among the many depressing
truths lurking in politicalscience books is the fact that voters
mostly ignore a government’s legislative record. Elections are de
cided by tribal emotions and fundamentals, not by childtax cred
its. The increasingly tribal Republicans—who released nomani
festo ahead of the last election—have taken that on board. Bycom
parison, it is good that the Democrats are still overlookingit.n
Lexington
Despite its recent breakdown, Joe Biden’s party looks likely to pass his domestic agenda into law