The Econmist - USA (2021-10-09)

52 Middle East & Africa The Economist October 9th 2021

(some  of  that  is  siphoned  off  by“ghost

workers”,  who  collude  with  employersto

share the payout).

What  subsidies  have  not  done isre­

shape  Kuwait’s  workforce.  Since 2005 the

share  of  public­sector  employment

amongst  citizens  has  fallen  by  justnine

percentage points, to 82%. For thepastfive

years,  numbers  have  moved  in  thewrong

direction:  the  number  of  private­sector

jobs  decreased  by  3%  from  2015to2020,

whereas the civil service swelled by22%,to

338,000 employees.

One  reason  subsidies  fail  is  thatthey

generally  target  the  wrong  people.AKu­

waiti  with  a  specialised  degree  receivesa

subsidy  two  or  three  times  largerthana

high­school  graduate,  and  almostseven

times more than someone who didnotfin­

ish high school. But wage gaps intheGulf

tend to be lowest for highly skilledjobs.An

engineer  with  a  university  degreeneeds

less incentive to join a private firmthana

high­school  graduate  competing with

poorly paid migrants. Employers alsocom­

plain  that  many  job­seekers  have the

wrong skills. Universities in the Gulfchurn

out lots of graduates with degreesinbusi­

ness  or  the  humanities,  neitherofwhich

are in high demand.

Subsidies  also  put  governments ina

bind.  Though  they  may  lower  theinitial

wage gap, they are meant to be temporary

inducements.  In  time  governmentsmust

choose  whether  to  remove  them,which

could  lead  some  workers  to  quit,orkeep

paying  them,  which  is  expensive.Some

economists suggest instead settinga mini­

mum wage for citizens, which would,inef­

fect, pass the costs of subsidies toemploy­

ers, with quotas or prohibitive feestostop

them from hiring foreigners. Otherswon­

der about a universal basic income,which

would  still  be  expensive  but  wouldavoid

distorting the labour market. 

For all the money they lavish onpublic

employees,  though,  Gulf  governmentsdo

not  get  much  value,  in  part  becauseofa

system that rewards workers basedonse­

niority  rather  than  merit.  Saudi Arabia

spends  6%  of  its  gdpon  education,well

above  most  countries,  but  it  rankspoorly

in international educational rankings.

The  uaeseems  to  have  takensomeof

these issues to heart. It plans to spend1.3bn

dirhams  on  vocational  trainingin such

fields  as  property  management and ac­

countancy  and  to  offer  scholarshipsfor

nursing degrees. Some of its subsidieswill

also be targeted at finance, healthcareand

property,  which  have  the  potentialtoem­

ploy lots of people. But those jobsstillneed

to  be  made  more  attractive  than their

cushy public­sector counterparts.Perhaps

the most useful thing governmentscando

is  to  make  their  own  pen­pusherswork

more  for  less.  That  would  certainlybea

cheaper way to shrink the wage gap.n

Iraq’selection

Boycott the boycott

A

fatwaissuedbyAlial­Sistani,anin­

fluential Grand Ayatollah, was all it

tooktopushIraq’sShiaMuslimsintorisk­

ingdeathinbattlewiththejihadistsofIs­

lamicStatein2014.Buthisedictsseemto

behavinglesssuccessatpersuadingIraqis

tostrollsedatelytotheballotboothtovote

on October 10th. Although parliament

bowedtothedemandsofyoungprotesters

for anearlyelection, itnowseems that

mostIraqiswillboycotttheevent.Ifthat

happens,sectarianandethnicmilitias,es­

peciallythoseclosesttoIran,willprobably

tightentheirgripallthemore.

Iraqis’previousexerciseindemocracy

waslessthanedifying.In 2018 only44%of

thoseeligiblebotheredtocasttheirballots.

Somecompensatedforthelowturnoutby

votingagainandagain.Daysafterparlia­

mentordereda recount,a warehousestor­

ingamillionballotswentupinflames.

SincethenIraqhasworkedto makethe

coming vote more credible. It has in­

creased the number of constituencies,

whichoughttobenefitindependentcandi­

dates.Some70%ofvoterswillhavebio­

metriccards,whichshouldreducefraud.

Andtherewillbefivetimesasmanyfor­

eignmonitorsastherewerein2018,in­

cluding,for thefirst time,a contingent

fromtheEuropeanUnion.

Yetapathyandcynicism stillprevail.

Many ofthose inthevanguard ofmass

proteststwoyearsagoarecallingfora boy­

cott. “The politicians don’t respect us, so I

don’t respect them,” says one of them, con­

vinced that Iraq’s armed factions will never

cede power at the ballot box. 

The  commonest  worry  is  that,  even  if

the  election  itself  is  fairer  than  usual,  the

horse­trading afterwards will result in yet

another  corrupt  carve­up  between  the

main factions. Ministries are still likely to

be  divided  between  the  biggest  parties,

with oil revenues treated as a cash­cow to

be shared out, including to party militias.

“They  sit  in  a  closed  room  and  choose  a

malleable fig­leaf to represent them,” says

a businessman in Baghdad, referring to the

present prime minister. 

Shias, who make up the majority of Ira­

qis and live mainly in the centre and south,

have  lost  the  most  faith  in  politics.  Two

years  ago  hundreds  of  thousands  of  them

joined  the  protests,  demanding  free  and

early  elections  to  break  the  militias’  hold.

But the country’s armed groups have since

grown  in  power,  shooting  hundreds  dead

with  impunity,  chasing  the  protesters  off

the  streets  and  quashing  their  efforts  to

form a political movement by killing, kid­

napping and intimidating them. 

Moreover,  lots  of  independent  candi­

dates who claim to represent the protesters

are  splitting  the  vote,  with  the  result  that

few, if any, will win seats. “Each candidate

feels he alone is king of the protest square,”

says Yasser Mekki, a dentist who joined the

protests  in  the  city  of  Najaf.  Some  have

looked to the West to help create a secular

bloc, but America seems to have tired of its

democratising mission.

Further dividing the country is the frac­

tiousness of Iraq’s three main groups: Shia,

Sunni and Kurd. The Shias sport an array of

parties, many of which are armed. Sairoun,

which is led by a podgy cleric­cum­militia­

leader,  Muqtada  al­Sadr,  won  the  biggest

share of the vote in 2018. But his campaign

in his old base—the shantytowns of Bagh­

dad  and  the  cities  of  the  south—has

flagged. This is perhaps because of his par­

ty’s failure to use its clout in parliament to

improve  the  lot  of  its  supporters.  Other

armed  factions  closer  to  Iran  are  bidding

for  his  former  voters.  Qais  al­Khazali,  the

leader  of  Asaib  Ahl  al­Haq,  a  powerful

chain of militias that broke away from Mr

Sadr, now sings to the tune of Ali Khame­

nei,  Iran’s  supreme  leader.  Kataib  Hizbul­

lah,  another  armed  Shia  group  known  for

firing  rockets  at  America’s  embassy,  is

standing for the first time. Several Shia mi­

litias  have  sought  Iran’s  guidance  to  save

them from splitting their vote.

One consolation is that the election has

been  surprisingly  free  of  violence.  But  its

outcome  will  depend  on  whether  people

heed  the  experience  of  Sunnis,  who  lost

out  in  earlier  polls.  “We’ve  learntourles­

son,” says Nada Jabouri, a Sunnicandidate

in Baghdad. “Boycotts don’t work.” n

A low turnout could tighten the grip of

Iraq’s pro-Iranian militias

Billboards aplenty, enthusiasm scanty