The Economist October 9th 2021 Asia 57F
or muchof the pandemic, many of
the wealthier countries and territories
in the AsiaPacific region have pursued a
“zerocovid” strategy, whether explicit or
not. The success of the approach, in
volving closed borders, quarantine ho
tels and severe lockdowns, has generally
been spectacular. Hong Kong has had no
locally transmitted infections since
midAugust. In the pandemic’s first year,
Taiwan officially counted about a dozen
deaths from covid19. New Zealand is the
standout zerocovid state, with just 27
deaths. Indeed, because fewer people
died of things like flu or road accidents
in lockdown, both countries recorded
fewer overall deaths than in a normal
year, according to The Economist’s excess
deaths tracker.
Yet those with a good first act are
struggling in the second. The coronavi
rus, especially the highly infectious Delta
variant, usually has the last word. In
Taiwan cases leapt in May, and the offi
cial death toll has risen to nearly 850. In
Singapore daily infections have risen
from low double digits in early July to
more than 3,000 now. Australia, with
some 2,000odd daily cases, is following
a similar trajectory. Even in New Zealand,
now with doubledigit daily cases, the
dam has broken.
“The Delta variant is already out there.
It’s too late to stop it,” says Tikki Panges
tu, the who’s former head of research
policy, now at the National University of
Singapore. It is therefore appropriate for
countries to abandon zerocovid strat
egies. Singapore was the first. In June its
government said it was time to live with
the virus. Singapore’s vaccination pro
gramme is Asia’s most successful, with
82% of the population fully jabbed. That
boosts the case for reopening.
In late August Scott Morrison, Australia’s prime minister, announced the end of
his country’s “covid zero” approach. Cases
would be allowed to rise, provided that
hospitals could cope with them. Once
vaccination rates top 80%, perhaps by the
end of the year, most restrictions would be
eased. “It is time”, as Mr Morrison puts it,
“to give Australians their lives back.”
Vietnam ditched its zerocovid strategy
last week. This week came New Zealand’s
capitulation. Though the prime minister,
Jacinda Ardern, won praise for her sure
handling of the pandemic, the mood has
soured. On October 2nd Auckland resi
dents defied stayathome orders to prot
est against restrictions. Two days later Ms
Ardern acknowledged, “The return to zero
is incredibly difficult.” She announced a
“new way of doing things” that included
lifting lockdown restrictions.
It remains unclear what abandonment
means in practice. In New Zealand less
than half the population is fully jabbed.
The vaccination programme is about to go
into overdrive. Yet lockdowns will prob
ably remain on the menu, and open bor
ders are still a long way off. Ms Ardernseems to want it both ways, promising to
continue a “very aggressive approach”.
Likewise, Australia’s ending of zero
covid still leaves the full reopening of
borders a distant prospect. The first goal,
from next month, is to allow all citizens
and permanent residents back in. Many
of them, astonishingly, have struggled
for 18 months to get home. The idea is to
let vaccinated returnees quarantine at
home rather than force them into hotels.
Even for such small moves, Australians
deliberate every detail. The country is a
long way from accepting risk and getting
on with living with the virus.
As for Singapore, jitters are growing
with rising cases. A rare public petition
calls for mandatory quarantine for all
overseas travellers. The government has
reimposed local restrictions, including
homebased schooling for children. One
innovation, “vaccinated travel lanes”
allowing quarantinefree travel with
certain countries, is likely to be expand
ed only slowly from the current juris
dictions of Germany and Brunei.
Yet if abandonment looks like no
strategy at all, then consider the alterna
tive. Hong Kong has stuck doggedly with
zero covid. A harsh, mediocre govern
ment whose publichealth messaging
either goes unheard or is little trusted
has meant a slow vaccination drive. Less
than 15% of those over 80 have had at
least one jab. Because the virus is not
present (for now) in Hong Kong, no level
of herd immunity has been bestowed by
past infections there or in the other
zerocovid countries. And the low risk of
infection dissuades people from getting
their shots. Hong Kong’s approach con
demns the territory to endless limbo.
Abandonment of zero covid—for all the
inevitable hesitations and temporary
reversals—is the way to go.Despite the risks, Asian countries are right to abandon zero-covid strategiesBanyan Nil and void
with arsa from within her camp gang
raped her and then extorted money from
her family, she says. They continue to ha
rass her parents, insisting her father mar
ries her off. He refuses. Other women, es
pecially those who work with ngos, are
threatened with violence if they do not stay
home or hand over a slice of their earnings.
Covid has made matters worse. Tight
restrictions imposed on the camps by the
Bangladeshi government have slashed the
number of aid workers allowed inside.
Bangladeshi forces still patrol the camps,
including after dark, but their presence is
patchy, says John Quinley of Fortify Rights,
an advocacy group. They drive through the
main road maybe once or twice at night,
says the Rohingya woman. Many parts of
the camps are inaccessible by road. Naimul
Haque, a commander of Cox’s Bazar Armed
Police Battalion, which is responsible for
security in the camps, disagrees, saying
that police patrol in cars and on foot
throughout the day and night. The Rohin
gya “are living here very peacefully”, he
says. “They’re very happy.”
In the past reports of rising insecurity
in the camps have been met with curbs onresidents’ freedoms. In 2019 Bangladesh’s
government banned refugees from owning
sim cards and cut mobileinternet net
works in the camps. At the start of 2020 it
erected barbedwire fences and watchtow
ers around them.
Bangladeshi authorities have launched
an investigation into the murder of Mr Mo
hib Ullah, and have arrested five suspects.
The foreign minister has vowed to bring
the killers to justice. Yet even as Rohingyas
in the campsmourn Mr Mohib Ullah, some
fear the falloutwillbe yet more restrictions
on their lives.n