The Economist October 9th 2021 69
Finance & economics
Theworldeconomy
Stagflation sensation
I
t is nearlyhalf a century since the Orga
nisation of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries imposed an oil embargo on
America, turning a modest inflation pro
blem into a protracted bout of soaring pric
es and economic misery. But the stagfla
tion of the 1970s is back on economists’
minds today, as they confront strengthen
ing inflation and disappointing economic
activity. The voices warning of unsettling
echoes with the past are influential ones,
including Larry Summers and Kenneth Ro
goff of Harvard University and Mohamed
ElErian of Cambridge University and pre
viously of pimco, a bondfund manager.
Stagflation is a particularly thorny pro
blem because it combines two ills—high
inflation and weak growth—that do not
normally go together. So far this year eco
nomic growth across much of the world
has been robust and unemployment rates,
though generally still above prepandemic
levels, have fallen. But the recovery seems
to be losing momentum, fuelling fears of
stagnation. Covid19 has led to factory clo
sures in parts of SouthEast Asia, hitting
industrial production. Consumer senti
ment in America is sputtering. Meanwhile,
after a decade of sluggishness, price pres
sures are intensifying (see chart 1 on next
page). Inflation has risen above central
bank targets across most of the world, and
exceeds 3% in Britain and the euro area and
5% in America.
The economic picture is not as bad as
the situation during the 1970s (see chart 2
on next page). But what worries stagfla
tionists is less the precise figures than the
fact that an array of forces threatens to
keep inflation high even as growth slows—
and that these look eerily similar to the fac
tors behind the stagflation of the 1970s.
One parallel is that the world economy
is once again weathering energy and food
price shocks. Global food prices have risen
by roughly a third over the past year. Gas
and coal prices are close to record levels in
Asia and Europe (see next story). Stocks of
both fuels are disconcertingly low in big
economies such as China and India; power
cuts, already a problem in China, may
spread. Rising energy costs will exert more
upward pressure on inflation and further
darken the economic mood worldwide.
Other costs are rising too: shipping
rates have soared, because of a shift in con
sumer spending towards goods and covid
related backlogs at ports. Workers are en
joying greater bargaining power this year,
as firms facing surging demand struggle to
attract sufficient labour. Unions in Germa
ny, for instance, are demanding higher
pay; some workers are going on strike.
Stagflationists see another similarity
with the past in the current policy environ
ment. They fret that macroeconomic
thinking has regressed, creating an open
ing for sustained inflation. In the 1960s
and 1970s governments and central banks
tolerated rising inflation as they priori
tised low unemployment over stable pric
es. But the bruising experience of stagfla
tion helped shift thinking, producing a
generation of central bankers determined
to keep inflation in check. Then, after the
global financial crisis and a period of defi
cient demand, this singleminded focus
gave way to greater concern about unem
ployment. Low interest rates weakened fis
WASHINGTON, DC
Soaring energy prices and a faltering recovery invite comparisons with the 1970s.
But the past is not the best guide to the present
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