The Economist October 9th 2021 Finance & economics 73
age points lower would mean savings of
about €500,000 a year, a drop in the bucket
for a government.
That suggests that green bonds carry
another benefit: they serve as a commit
ment device for politicians. The proceeds
of Britain’s issuance, for instance, will be
spent on a range of green policies, includ
ing a plan to develop lowcarbon hydrogen
technologies by 2030. The risk with such
commitments is that they end up being ei
ther watered down or reversed when a new
government comes into power. But when a
finance ministry creates a greenbond pro
gramme and builds out a “green curve”,
backing out of specific policies may be
come harder, says Mr Bouvet. Doing so
would hurt liquidity and anger investors.
Issuing newfangled bonds could carry
other liquidity problems, though. One is
that investors may be unwilling to plough
cash into a stillnascent market. But as
green bonds become more popular, the
risk for governments is that they split the
overall sovereignbond market in two, says
Mr Bongaerts. Normally, all bonds issued
at the same time and of a given maturity
are identical, which makes them easier to
trade. But a more verdant green segment
could have the effect of lowering the li
quidity premium that investors place on
conventional bonds, and increasing the
cost of raising funds.
Germany has tried to guard against this.
Last year it began issuing green bonds that
are matched to a conventional “twin” with
the same maturity date and coupon. The
Bundesbank maintains liquidity in the
market through “switch trades”, allowing
investors to swap green bonds for conven
tional ones. As more governments go
green, other workarounds may follow.n
F
ortyyearsagoAntoinevanAgtmael
of the International Finance Corpora
tion pitched the idea of a “Third World
Equity Fund” to sceptical fund managers,
and the concept of emerging markets
entered global investing. The aim had
been to offer diversified exposure to
fastgrowing countries outside the rich
world. Since then emerging and devel
oping countries have, in aggregate,
gained economic and corporate clout.
But the vast disparities between them
makes lumping them all into a single
category increasingly odd. What might a
new framework for investing outside of
the rich world look like?
In the early 1980s emerging and devel
oping countries made up about 25% of
global gdp,according to the imf. Today
they account for about 40%, and more
than 20% of total global market capital
isation. The market cap of the msci
emergingmarkets index, as a share of
the global gauge, has risen by 13 times.
Yet countries’ economic situations
vary widely. Consider, for instance, the
msciemergingmarkets index. In 1988,
when the gauge was launched, the in
come per person of countries that were
included ranged from $1,123 in Thailand
to $7,598 in Greece. In 2019 the range was
over four times that, stretching from
India’s $2,100 to South Korea’s $31,846.
The fortunes of some economies, such as
Brazil and Russia, are tied to the vagaries
of commodities markets; those of East
and SouthEast Asia, by contrast, are
powered by manufacturing.
Existing definitions of emerging
markets do not capture such complexity.
Most people, including many investors,
think of the category as linked to income
levels. But index providers also consider
whether trading in markets is as friction
less as in the rich world. This is why,
althoughSouthKorea and Taiwan are
wealthy, their markets are not considered
“developed”. The result is a grouping that
is highly concentrated: the two East Asian
countries together make up 27% of the
msci emergingmarkets index.
How then to think about gaining expo
sure to more than threequarters of the
world’s population, and twofifths of the
global economy? A framework that is
organised by geography seems only slight
ly less arbitrary than the emergingmar
kets classification: the Turkish and Saudi
Arabian markets, say, have little in com
mon. Another approach would be to seg
ment countries by income. But this too
can have odd results. The lowincome
category, for instance, would combine
places that have failed to develop for
decades with those that could soon take
off. The Republic of Congo and Vietnam
have similar levels of income per person,
but share few other economic qualities.
Kuwait and Taiwan are broadly as rich as
each other, but their stockmarkets are
vastly different. Income levels alone do
not say much about a country’s prospects.
Perhaps a more promising approach
is to think of countries in terms of their
growth models instead. This framework
would apply to the familiar big emerging
economies, as well as to the edgier,
“frontier” markets. Investors who want
more exposure to exportoriented po
werhouses could turn not just to China,
South Korea and Taiwan, but also to later
adopters of the model, such as Bangla
desh and Vietnam. These are still min
nows compared with the incumbents’
market capitalisation of about $16trn.
But adding them makes sense, since they
are already beneficiaries of rising Chi
nese wages, and could expand into tech
nologically advanced manufacturing.
A second category could include
countries that rely instead on services
led growth, with all the promise of
healthy middleclass consumption.
Here, India and Indonesia are possible
candidates; Kenya might be a frontier
market worth investigating. And a third
group could include commodity export
ers, such as Brazil, Russia and South
Africa. These have provided dismal
returns over the past decade and shrunk
as a proportion of emergingmarket
indices. But climate change and the
green transition could create new win
ners and losers, as some resources, such
as battery metals, become soughtafter,
and others fall out of favour.
Such a taxonomy is far from perfect.
Growth models can change over time, for
a start. Just think of China, which is
seeking to become more consumption
led. Many smaller countries have long
had hopes of boosting exports, only to be
tripped up by poor policymaking. Still,
the strategy of lumping much of the
world’s population and output into one
category is no longer useful. Time to
experiment.
ButtonwoodBrave new world
A different approach to investing in developing countries