MONDAY, OCTOBER 25 , 2021 .THE WASHINGTON POST EZ RE A
left in public places accompanied
by notes warning others thatthis
is the fate of those who work with
the Islamic State. Theimages
coul dnot be independently veri-
fied, andTaliban leadership re-
fused to sayift he group’s fighters
were responsible.
TheglobalIslamic State move-
ment is also now depicting Af-
ghanistan as the epicenter of its
ideologicalstruggle.Thegroup ’s
main propaganda organs have
trumpeted the successes of its
Afghan affiliate, describing the
anti-Taliban campaign in an offi-
cial statement asa“newstagein
the blessed jihad.”
TheIslamic State“has posi-
tioned Afghanistan asaforemost
priority—both in terms of media
and militaryactivity—since the
withdrawal of theU.S. and the
Taliban’s subsequent takeover,”
said Rita Katz, founder of SITE
Intel Group, aBethesda-based
companythattracks militant
groups’ online messaging.
“Meanwhile, ISIS media, both
official and unofficial, is now fo-
cused primarily on labeling the
Taliban as ‘apostates’ warning
that Afghanistan will be‘the cem-
eteryofthe Taliban.’Ican't recall
seeing an ISIS campaign this
strong in recent years againstone
spe cific target.”
Taliban leaders saytheyplan to
respond withalarge-scale opera-
tion to defeatthe Islamic State in
the coming weeks.
Aziz AhmadTawakol,asenior
member ofTaliban intelligence in
Kabul, said his forces are prepar-
ing for thefight by expanding
intelligence networks and refur-
bishing American surveillance
equipment left behind by the for-
mer Afghangovernment. But he
denied receiving outside help to
do so, saying suchexchanges of
information only happenat the
mostsenior levels of the move-
ment.
“If someone knows English,
they can use theInternet, and
with theInternetwecan learn
how to use anyequipment,”he
said.
“Wealready defeated theUnit-
ed States, so we believe we can
defeatDaesh as well and in less
time,”hesaid. “Soon no one will
even remember their name.”
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]Warrick and DeYoungreported from
Washington.Shaiq Hussain in
Islamabad,Paki stan, and HaqNawaz
Khan inPeshawar, Paki stan,
contributed to thisreport.Afghanistan and other conflict
zones. All but seven of theattacks
targeted Taliban fighters, the
analysis said.
Previously,Islamic State at-
tacks sharply declined afterase-
ries ofU.S.-led operations largely
cleared territoryheld by the
group in eastern Afghanistan be-
tween 2018 and 2020.
Since then,Islamic State cells
moved to urban areas where Af-
ghan government forces with
clo se U.S. supportmaintained
pressure onthe group withraids
and other ground operations.U.S.
surveillance drones and air sup-
portwere alsokeytothe fight
under the previous Afghangov-
ernment, buteven with such as-
sets,government forces were un-
able to eliminate theIslamic State
in Afghanistan.
Now, the Islamic State’s Afghan
branch appears to be positioning
itself as the primarymilitaryop-
position to Taliban rule, said
Charlie Winter,aterrorism ana-
lystand ExTrac’sdirector of re-
search.
“There’s been an apparentef-
fortonIS-K’sparttoappeal to a
broader base of Afghan society,”
Winter said.Instead ofablindly
ideological and indiscriminately
violent movement,“they’re fram-
ing themselves asaresistance
movement againstthe Taliban,
speciallygeared toward under-
mining itsgovernment,”hesaid.
TheTaliban has responded by
carrying out mass arrests—in-
cl udingat least1,500inNangahar
province, near thePakistan bor-
der,Winter said, citing reports
and interviews by ExTracre-
searchers.
TheTaliban’s abili ty to main-
tain securityinl argely rural parts
of the countrythathavebeen
under its control for years isakey
component of the movement’s
popularityinAfghanistan.Tali-
ban leadership has repeatedly
pled gedtoextend thatlevel of
securitynationwide, but some
Taliban members admit doing so
requires skills the group does not
have.
“When we entered Kabul we
didn’t haveaprofessional police
force,buttraininghasstartedand
we are building thatnow,” the
seniorTaliban leader said. “But
even now we are verystrong
agai nstDaesh. We don’t even ar-
restmanyofthem, wejustkill
them,”hesaid of suspectedIslam-
icStatemembersapprehendedby
his fighters.
Images shared on social media
showaseries of killings in eastern
Afghanistaninwhichbodieswere“Any cooperation with Kabul
can’t be ruled out,”the Pakistani
official noted. “Not onlyPakistan
but other regionalstates likeRus-
sia andIran are concerned about
ISIS. So there could beacounter-
terrorism understandingat the
regional level.”
Despite those regional con-
cerns,theBiden administrationis
struggling to createstronger mili-
taryand intelligence partner-
ships with Afghanistan’s close
neighbors, thecurrent and for-
merU.S. of ficials said.Pakistan
and Tajikistan have so far refused
to hostU.S.bases thatwouldal-
low theUnited States to maintain
“over-the-horizon”pressure on
terr oristthreatsinAfghanistan.
“There are shrinking options
regarding countries on which the
U.S. could rely forstaging coun-
terterrorism operations,”said
Lisa Curtis,aformer adviser on
SouthAsia to the WhiteHouse
National SecurityCouncil and
nowdirector of theIndo-Pacific
SecurityProgramat theCenter
for aNewAmerican Security. Cur-
re ntly,thebulkoftheU.S.military
assets available for apossible
strikeinAfghanistan remain in
Qatar,some 1,200 miles away,
making their use“expensive and
risky,”she said.
Thehead of theU.S. Central
Command said it was “yettobe
seen”ifthe Taliban couldstop the
Islamic State or al-Qaeda from
using Afghan territorytolaunch
international terroristattacks.
“Wecould gettot hatpoint, but
Idonot yethavethatlevel of
confidence,”Gen.Kenneth Mc-
Kenzie said in testimonytolaw-
makers lastmonth.
Afghanistan’s close neighbors
are equally concerned about the
riseoftheIslamicStateinAfghan-
istan,despiteareluctancetowork
with theUnited States because of
numerous conflicts and competi-
tion.
At ameeting lastweek inMos-
cow,ForeignMinister SergeiLav-
rov said thatRussia’s“Central
Asian friends” have assured him
thattheydonotwantU.S.milit ary
unitsstationed in their countries.
While theU.S. militaryestab-
lish edtemporarybasesinUzbeki-
stan and Kyrgyzstan following
the Sept. 11, 2001, al-Qaeda at-
tacks,thoseagreementshavelong
since beenvacated.also complicated intelligence
sharingwiththegroup,according
to current and formerU.S. of fi-
cials.
“Pakistan is our brother and
theysupportusinmanyways,
including sharing information
andintelligence [about theIslam-
ic State]. If theUnited States and
the restoft he worldshares infor-
mation with us we could defeat
Daeshinjustdays,”saidthesenior
Taliban leader,using another
name for theIslamic State.
ATaliban spokesman, Bilal Ka-
rimi, pushed back againststate-
me ntsfromTalibanmembersthat
the group needs international co-
operation tofight other militants.
TheIslamic State “is notaserious
threattot he Islamic Emirate. We
don’t seeitasamajor challenge,
so we don’t need anyoutsi de sup-
porttot ackle this issue.”
It is unclear how much intelli-
gence countries such as theUnit-
ed States would be able to share.
Without an embassy or military
presence in Afghanistan,U.S. in-
telligence-gathering capabilities
have been crippled, and theTali-
banhaspreviouslydenouncedthe
United States for flying drones
over Afghan territory.
Current and formerU.S. of fi-
cials said there are ongoing chal-
lenges in re-establishing aneffec-
tive intelligence network in the
region.
Intelligence agencies have
maintained an array of formal
and informal links to theTaliban
since the departure ofU.S. forces
in August, and Americans have
routinely sought to share infor-
mationaboutIslamicStateopera-
tions withTaliban counterparts.
But, in manycases, theTaliban
has appeared uninterested, ap-
parently distrustful of the data or
unsure of how to takeaction on it,
according toaU.S.official famil-
iarwithcommunicationswiththe
Afghan group.
ThePakistaniForeignMinistry
official said “Pakistan did discuss
counterterrorism cooperation
with the AfghanTaliban”during a
recent visit ofPakistan’s intelli-
gence chiefand foreign minister
to Kabul. But the official added:
“It’sabit early to sayinformation
sharing [or] intelligence coopera-
tion is ongoing.”
AFGHANISTANFROMA
Rivalries pose challenge
in Taliban’s ISIS fight
states, RussianPresidentVladi-
mir Putin charged thatthere was
aclear “concentration ofextrem-
istand terroristgroups” near Af-
ghanistan’s northernborders, fo-
cusing on incitingethnic and reli-
gious conflicts and religious ha-
tred.
“The terrorists’ leaders are
hatching plots for spreading their
influence to the Central Asian
countries andRussian regions,”
he said according to theRussian
news agencyTass.
TheIslamic State has far fewer
fighters in Afghanistan than the
Taliban—roughly 2,000 accord-
ing to the latestUnitedNations
estimate, compared to Taliban
ranks estimated at more than
70,000—but manyfear it could
grow if theTaliban fractures or if
disaffected Taliban members
seekingareturn to the battlefield
peel offtoj oin other groups.
After the fall of Kabul, theIs-
lamic State launchedacampaign
of directassaults onTaliban secu-
rityforces as well as escalating
violence againstAfghanistan’s
Shiite minority, which it regards
as heretical.
In amonth-long spree begin-
ning in mid-September,the Is-
lamic State carried out47 attacks,
ranging from assassinations and
assaults on militarycheckpoints
to suicide bombings at Shiite
mosquesthatkilled dozens, ac-
cordingtoananalysisbyExTrac,a
privateBritish companythat
monitors violence by militants in“Thesituationrightnowisvery
different”thanitwas when that
post-9/11 cooperation took place,
saidNargis Kassenova,asenior
fellow at the Davis Center for
Russian and Eurasian Studies’
program on Central Asia, at a
panel discussion convened last
month by the Carnegie Endow-
ment for International Peace’s
branch inMoscow.This has given
Russiafarmoreinfluenceoverthe
CentralAsian states, Kassenova
said.
“The lasttime the American
militarywas present in Central
Asia, relations between the big-
gest powers of the world,Russia
and theUnited States and now
China,weremuchbetter,” Kassen-
ovasaid. Today“Russia sees any
attempt from the American side
to come closer to its borders as a
signofattackingitscoreinterests.
ForCentralAsia, it would be a
verycostly thing to agree to have
something likethatontheir terri-
tory.”
Outreach to theTaliban over
possible militant spillover has
beenmadebyIran,whichsharesa
570-mile border with Afghani-
stan, andChina, which fears in-
creasedIslamic State recruitment
of Uyghurs,aMusli mminorityin
westernChina under relentless
pressures from Beijing including
“reeducation camps” thathave
been denounced by the West,
rights groups and others.
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Attackson
civilians
Attackson
security
Taliban
control
Note:Some attackswere aimed at multiple targets.
Source:ExTrac THE WASHINGTONPOST
IslamicStaterampsupattacksonTaliban fighters
The I slamicStatecarried out47 attacks since mid-September,mostly direct
assaultson Taliban security forces, accordingtoananalysisbyExTrac, a
private British companythatmonitorsviolence by militants in Afghanistan.
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