TUESDAY, OCTOBER 26 , 2021. THE WASHINGTON POST EZ RE A
called forcefully on Russia “to
end its destabilizing activities in
the Black Sea... and to halt its
persistent cyberattacks and other
mali gn activities” against the
United States and its partners.
“They have this great rhetoric... but the details aren’t there,”
said Jim Townsend, who worked
on NATO and European policy at
the Pentagon during the Obama
administration and now is with
the Center for a New American
Security. “It’s almost like there’s a
line that we’re not going to cross
when it comes to the Black Sea.”
About 1,000 U.S. troops are
stationed in NATO member Ro-
mania on a rotational basis, a
number that is not expected to
change dramatically or become a
permanent presence, according
to senior defense officials who
spoke on the condition of ano-
nymity to preview Austin’s visit
there.
The Biden administration has
stepped up security assistance to
NATO hopefuls Ukraine and
Georgia, meanwhile, by provid-
ing the countries with patrol
boats, approving sales and trans-
fers of Javelin missiles, and ex-
panding bilateral and multilater-
al military exercises.
Ukraine, Georgia, Romania
and Bulgaria are also part of a
U.S.-sponsored maritime pro-
gram, through which they have
been able to tap other defense
resources over the years.
But a new pact that Austin
signed with his Georgian coun-
terpart last week to formalize a
training partnership was largely
an extension of an existing pro-
gram. The same goes for an an-
nouncement in Brussels that
NATO would defend itself against
a two-front attack from Russia by
investing in missile defense and
fifth-generation jets — programsthat already exist.
“Where’s the beef in some of
the announcements that were
made in Georgia, in Kyiv, in Bu-
charest and at NATO?” asked Ian
Brzezinski, a senior fellow with
the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft
Center who worked on NATO and
Europe policy at the Defense De-
partment during President
George W. Bush’s a dministration.
He cited “the ambiguity of the
alliance’s relationship” with the
Black Sea countries — particular-
ly those which are not yet NATO
members — as one of the reasons
the region continues to be “a
uniquely intense zone of competi-
tion” with Russia.
There is palpable concern
within NATO about stoking con-
flict with Russia. While the alli-
ance has pledged to ready itself
for possible multi-front attacks
from Moscow, there is a reluc-
tance in some corners to stir thepot — especially when it comes to
Ukraine’s and Georgia’s NATO,
which are actively embroiled in
territorial disputes involving
Russia. France and Germany, in
particular, have expressed skepti-
cism about their inclusion, even
as the two countries committed
troops to the Afghanistan war
effort, engaged in domestic re-
form efforts and took steps to
make their defense systems more
interoperable with the alliance.
Last week, in the midst of
Austin’s visit to NATO, Russian
President Vladimir Putin told re-
porters that Ukraine’s military
development “poses a threat to
Russia,” and that its accession to
the alliance would be a red line.
Those comments followed Aus-
tin’s declaration in Kyiv that “no
third country has a veto over
NATO’s membership decisions.”
He made similarly unambiguous
remarks while in Tbilisi, con-BY KAROUN DEMIRJIANDefense Secretary Lloyd Aus-
tin traveled throughout the Black
Sea region last week to promote
the partnerships needed to
mount a credible defense against
Russia along the most volatile
territorial frontier between Mos-
cow and the West. But despite his
show of support, experts say the
Biden administration so far has
struggled to articulate how it
intends to turn the United States’
alliances into a successful plan
for repelling Russian aggression,
which is on the rise.
“What is our strategy? Why
should we care about the Black
Sea region? That’s missing,” said
retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, who
commanded all U.S. Army forces
in Europe for a time during the
Obama and Trump administra-
tions and is now with the Center
for European Policy Analysis. The
limited military hardware that’s
been supplied to certain coun-
tries in the region, he added,
stems from “policy decisions that
are not rooted in a sustainable,
long-term strategy.”
For more than a decade, the
Black Sea region has been a bat-
tleground where pro-Western
and pro-Russian forces have
clashed — and Moscow has often
emerged with the upper hand. In
2008, war between a democratiz-
ing Georgia and Russia ended
with Moscow helping two Geor-
gian territories break away from
the government in Tbilisi. In
2014, Russia annexed the Crime-
an peninsula from Ukraine after
the country ousted a pro-Kremlin
government and helped separat-
ists in its eastern provinces
mount an ongoing war with Kyiv.
More recently, Russia has
made significant investments in
its navy’s Black Sea Fleet — and in
the last several months, it has
used those assets to menace
Western forces during joint exer-
cises and as ships move through
the region.
Against that backdrop, U.S. al-
lies have clamored for more
troops and more weapons from
the United States and NATO, to
help them fortify their front line
against Russian aggression. But
there was noticeably little of that
on offer as Austin made his tour
through Georgia, Ukraine, Roma-
nia and ultimately to NATO head-
quarters in Brussels, even as he
demning “Russia’s ongoing occu-
pation of Georgia.”
That Austin’s visit captured the
attention of Russia’s president is,
in itself, significant. Before last
week, no U.S. defense secretary
had set foot in Romania or Geor-
gia since 2014, and none had
visited Ukraine since 2017.
But the factors that govern
Black Sea security are not a sim-
ple balancing act between east
and west. Delicate regional alli-
ances and balances of power com-
plicate any increased U.S. or
NATO intervention as well as
efforts to promote broader coop-
eration between the countries
that share coastline, analysts and
senior defense officials note.
For example, while Romania
and Bulgaria — both NATO mem-
bers — have shown an interest in
pooling defensive naval and intel-
ligence-gathering resources, such
efforts have met an icy reception
in Turkey, a NATO country that
has been dominant in the Black
Sea and has formal control over
the straits that connect it to the
Mediterranean. Warming rela-
tions between Ankara and Mos-
cow — in particular, Turkey’s
decision to buy NATO-incompati-
ble S-400 missile systems from
Russia — have further challenged
approaching the Black Sea dilem-
ma with a united front.
There appears to be growing
interest in tackling these matters
on Capitol Hill, where a Senate
Foreign Relations subcommittee
has scheduled a Wednesday hear-
ing to examine the United States’
security posture in the Black Sea.
Tellingly perhaps, the session is
titled “Reviving U.S. Policy
Toward the Region.”
Ultimately, those eager for
Bide n’s team to articulate a com-
prehensive plan may have to wait
for the Pentagon to release its
next Global Posture Review,
which Austin commissioned after
taking office. The document has
taken longer than planned to be
issued, though officials have indi-
cated it would be completed this
year.
Experts warn that absent a
marked change in approach, it
may be too late to shift the
balance away from Russia.
“We are really behind — and
while there are some things we
could do, it’s going to be tough to
move the needle,” Townsend said.
[email protected]Pentagon spotlights the Black Sea, but plans to confront Russia still murky
KAROUN DEMIRJIAN/THE WASHINGTON POST
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin speaks with U.S. troops at MK Airbase in Romania on Oct. 20. U.S. allies in the Black Sea region as well as
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