10 | New Scientist | 30 October 2021
Analysis Carbon emissionsTHE chief aim of the COP
climate summit is to “keep 1.5°C
alive”, according to the president
of the talks, Alok Sharma. But
meeting that Paris Agreement
goal of holding global temperature
rises to 1.5°C above pre-industrial
levels will require bold ambition
from countries in their carbon-
emission cutting plans for the
end of the decade.
Governments had to submit
plans in 2015 and were given a
deadline of showing “progression”
by the end of 2020. Many missed
that schedule and the COP
meeting starting in Glasgow, UK,
on 31 October is now a de facto
deadline for stronger plans.
So which countries are leading
with their new plans for 2030,
and which are lagging? Which
are contributing a “fair share” –
according to calculations by non-
profit organisation Climate Action
Tracker – to ensuring the world
warms by no more than 1.5°C and
which aren’t? These charts, based
on data from the organisation,
tell the story (see note at end).China
Rapid industrialisation and a
huge expansion of coal power –
the most polluting form of fossil
fuel – mean China now accounts
for more than a quarter of global
emissions. The country is yet
to update the original climate
plan it submitted in 2015, which
allowed for emissions to keep
growing and only peak “around”- It has the biggest renewable
electricity capacity globally, yet
its size, growth and continued
reliance on coal for more than
60 per cent of its energy pose
a serious challenge to efforts
to reduce emissions.
A new plan from China is
expected to reflect President Xi
Jinping’s September promise to
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seen over
Lyon, FranceWho is tackling climate change best?
Some countries are leading, while others are lagging, when it comes to plans
to cut carbon emissionsNews COP26 preview
reach peak emissions before 2030,
but don’t expect that to be enough
to put the country on a pathway
towards its “fair share”. There is
still hope for China to do better,
though. The International Energy
Agency has modelled one scenario
in which emissions peak in 2025
and decline 4 per cent per year
from then, but only by retiring old
coal plants and implementing an
accelerated roll-out of renewable
power and electric vehicles.US
The US was a key player in forging
the Paris Agreement. Yet under
former president Donald Trump,
it withdrew from the accord,
leaving it with no formal plan
to cut emissions. Within months
of taking office, Joe Biden had
rejoined the treaty and set a goal
of a 50 to 52 per cent emissions cut
by 2030, on 2005 levels. That was
at the upper end of expectations.
The US has largely cut emissions
in recent years by switching from
coal to gas power and, to a lesser
degree, renewables. Solar power
will be a big plank of the new plan:
a recent US government report
showed it could go from about
4 per cent of electricity supplies
now to 40 per cent by 2035. The
country also wants to roll out
more electric cars and increase
the energy efficiency of homes.
The big question over Biden’s
new climate goal is whether he
can navigate domestic politics to
secure the spending to deliver it.Brazil
As home to the world’s biggest
rainforest, a vital store of carbon,
Brazil is a crucial player in
international climate talks.
President Jair Bolsonaro has
pledged to make the country
carbon neutral by 2050,China is the world’s biggest CO 2 emitter, and still growing
Greenhouse gas emissions in thousands of tonnes of CO 2 equivalentThe US plans to roughly halve emissions by 2030
Greenhouse gas emissions in thousands of tonnes of CO 2 equivalent12,10,
800060004000200007000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0The US rejoined the Paris
Agreement in 2021. Shortly after,
President Joe Biden announced
emissions would be cut by 50 to
52 per cent by 20301990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20301990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030But Climate Action
Tracker says the US’s
size and wealth means
its ‘‘fair share’’ cut
should be much deeperChina overtook the US to
become the biggest emitter
in the mid-2000sThe country’s current
plan is to peak
emissions ‘‘around’’
2030
But Climate Action
Tracker thinks a ‘‘fair
share’’ if the world is to
stay under 1.5 ̊C of
warming would require
steep cuts instead