New Scientist - USA (2021-10-30)

30 October 2021 | New Scientist | 11

1990 levels by 2030, the toughest

target of any major economy.

While world-leading, there is still

a question mark over whether the

UK government will put the

policies in place to meet the goal.

The UK is already off track for

earlier targets it set domestically.

Last week, the UK government

published its “net-zero strategy”,

but this was criticised for not

showing the carbon savings that

any of its measures would deliver.

It is also worth noting that the

UK is one of a few countries, like

Germany, whose fair share towards

a 1.5°C goal would require the

country to pull more carbon

dioxide out of the atmosphere

than it puts in, known as negative

emissions. That is mainly because

of the UK’s large historical

emissions, but partly due to its

capability to cut emissions. ❚

contingent on climate finance
from richer countries.
But there is a big mismatch
between that long-term aspiration
and Brazil’s short-term plan this
decade. Last December, the nation
issued a new climate plan for 2030,
but left its target from five years
earlier entirely unchanged.
That flies in the face of the Paris
Agreement, where countries
promised that each of their
successive pledges would be a
“progression” on past ones. Worse,
a methodology tweak saw a rise in
emissions for 2005, the base year
from which cuts are measured.
That means emissions can go
up and the target still be met.

EU

The European Union, the world’s
third-largest emitter, is usually
a progressive force at UN climate
talks. However, reaching internal
agreement on ambitious climate
plans can sometimes be difficult,
as some countries, including
Germany and Poland, are still
heavily reliant on coal.
The bloc updated its plan in
December 2020, pledging a 55 per
cent cut in emissions by 2030 on
1990 levels – a significant upgrade
on its old plan of a 40 per cent
reduction. A carbon border tax,
steps to encourage renewables
and energy efficiency, and efforts
to make airlines use greener fuels
are some of the ways the EU plans
to hit the new goal. Yet Climate
Action Tracker says the EU should
be going much further to help the
world stay under 1.5°C of warming.

UK

As host of the COP26 summit, the
spotlight has been on the UK to
show leadership. The country’s
answer was a pledge last December
to cut emissions by 68 per cent on

Brazil’s climate plans have gone backwards, not forwards

Greenhouse gas emissions in thousands of tonnes of CO 2 equivalent

Brazil’s latest climate plan is

effectively weaker than its

original one, and allows for

emissions to keep climbing

EU emissions are already falling but need to speed up

Greenhouse gas emissions in thousands of tonnes of CO₂ equivalent

The UK’s 2030 climate plan is one of the most ambitious

Greenhouse gas emissions in thousands of tonnes of CO 2 equivalent

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

But a “fair share” would

be for emissions to

gradually fall by 2030

Much of the EU’s

CO₂ cuts have been

driven by its

emissions trading

scheme, launched

in 2005

A 55 per cent cut

in emissions is

planned by 2030

Climate Action Tracker

thinks a ‘‘fair share’’ cut

would be much deeper

In the run-up to hosting

the COP26 summit, the

UK promised an ambitious

68 per cent CO₂ cut by 2030

A ‘‘fair share’’ towards 1.5 ̊C

would require emissions

to go negative using CO₂

removal methods – a highly

unrealistic prospect

A brief note on the data

The dotted blue lines indicate

the path implied by the average

emissions in 2030 under the

carbon-cutting plans, officially

called nationally determined

contributions (NDCs), that

countries have submitted to UN

Climate Change. Many countries

provide a range. The emissions

cuts here are only those that are

unconditional in NDCs. Some

countries promise deeper cuts

providing richer countries hand

over promised climate finance.

The dotted green lines show

the “fair share” for each country

if the world is to achieve the

1.5°C goal, as calculated by

Climate Action Tracker. The solid

black lines show historical

emissions. All the figures exclude

emissions from land use,

land-use change and forestry.

For most Western nations, such

as the UK, these are marginal.