14 Time November 8/November 15, 2021
Johnson
& JohnsonNO YES
You had
only a
single shotHas it been
at least 2
months
since your
first shot?If you are 18 or older
and your first dose was ...YES NO
YES NO
YES NO
You had a second
dose of the same
vaccine about a
month laterAre you any of
the following?
Q 65 or older
Q Have an
underlying
medical
condition?
Q Work or live
in a high-risk
setting (e.g.,
a long-term
care facility)You are
booster-
eligible. You
can receive:
QA half-dose
Moderna
shot, or
QA Pfizer
shot, or
QA J&J shotA third dose
of the same
shot is recom-
mended, as
soon as four
weeks after the
second, though
Moderna and
Pfizer can be
interchanged if
necessaryNo
booster
yetHas it been at
least 6 months
since your
second dose?Are you
immuno-
compromised?Moderna
or Pfizer-
A BioNTech
lmosT Two years inTo
the COVID-19 pandemic, as
booster shots roll out and this
summer’s Delta-related surge
subsides in the U.S., it’s still not clear ex-
actly how, where or when SARS-CoV-
began infecting people. Many experts be-
lieve the virus jumped from animal hosts
to humans, but researchers continue to
investigate the possibility that it escaped
from a laboratory.
The chances of figuring out which, if
either, of those theories is correct grow
slimmer as time passes. But on Oct. 13,
the World Health Organization (WHO) re-
vealed a new effort to capitalize on what
time remains: the Scientific Advisory
Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens
(SAGO), an advisory group of interna-
tional experts from specialties including
epidemiology, virology, genomics, tropi-
cal medicine, public health and animal
health. The group is tasked with learn-
ing what it can about SARS-CoV-2 while
streamlining the study of future emerg-
ing pathogens, in hopes of more quickly
understanding their origins and trans-
mission so they can be contained. But
its first assignment will be bringing new
life to the largely stalled investigation of
COVID-19’s origins—an investigation that
politicians, world leaders and countless
members of the public have long put pres-
sure on the WHO to deliver.
It may be too late. Trying to reverse-
engineer a virus’s origins two years into
the pandemic it caused is like “going back
to the scene of a crime two years later and
the crime scene has been scrubbed,” says
Lawrence Gostin, a professor of global
health law at Georgetown University who
has served on numerous WHO advisory
committees.
That doesn’t mean it isn’t worth trying.
When cases of what we now know to be
COVID-19 were first reported near Wuhan,
China, in late 2019, the cluster seemed to
be linked to an animal market. But as time
went on, some experts asked whether the
virus could have been lab-made. Others
noted that it could have been circulating,
undetected, well before its existence be-
came public knowledge—perhaps first
infecting people outside the Wuhan area.
Scientists and elected ofcials from around
the world called for an independent inves-
tigation into the virus’s origins.
Chinese ofcials initially resisted those
calls, but eventually let in a WHO-led
mission in January 2021. The team’s find-
ings, published in a March report, were
inconclusive, sparking widespread con-
sternation. Fourteen countries, includ-
ing the U.S., released a joint statement
calling the report “significantly delayed
and lack[ing] access to complete, original
data and samples.” WHO ofcials and re-
searchers later said China withheld data
from the investigators.
In July, China rejected the WHO’s
plans for a second effort, which would
have included further research into the
possibility of a lab leak. Chinese ofcials
have repeatedly denied that any such leak
occurred. “We will not accept such an
origins- tracing plan as it, in some aspects,
disregards common sense and defies sci-
ence,” the vice minister of China’s Na-
tional Health Commission told reporters.
SAGO’s work will not include another
mission to China, says Maria Van Kerk-
hove, who leads the WHO’s Emerging
Diseases and Zoonoses unit. The group’s
job is not to conduct field research, she
explains, but rather to review existing sci-
ence and advise the WHO (and its mem-
ber states) about what to do next.
“It’s not about blame. It’s not about
pointing fingers. It’s about being better
prepared for next time,” Van Kerkhove
continues. “Let’s say another disease
emerges tomorrow... This group can
come together and take whatever infor-
mation we have, whatever we know about
the cluster or the case, and advise, ‘These
things need to happen right now.’ ”
Georgetown’s Gostin says a standing
committee, with the sole purpose of in-
vestigating new pathogens, will make it
easier to find answers in the future. But he
doubts it will push the SARS-CoV-2 inves-
tigation forward. The WHO cannot com-
pel countries to give unfettered access to
its researchers, and it may be too late for
effective cooperation when it comes to
COVID-19. “The same structural barriers
are in place,” Gostin says. “As far as China
is concerned, the investigation is over.” □TheBrief Opener
HEALTH
A new push for
COVID-19’s roots
By Jamie Ducharme