The Econmist - USA (2021-11-06)

38 China The Economist November 6th 2021

style  dictatorship  and  losingitscommit­

ment to Deng’s reforms.

Mr Xi has declared that neitherMaonor

Deng should be used to “negate”theother.

He does not want a historyfilledwithmis­

takes and contradictions, noronethatrais­

es  questions  about  one­manrule.Hebe­

lieves the collapse of the SovietUnionwas

hastened by a failure to protectthelegacies

of  Lenin  and  Stalin.  He  hascampaigned

vigorously  against  “historicalnihilism”—

essentially  anything  that  caststheparty’s

past  in  an  unfavourable  light.Tomesthat

excavate Mao’s worst mistakes,oncetoler­

ated, are now strongly discouraged.

A new official history oftheparty,pub­

lished  in  February,  gives  aglimpseofMr

Xi’s  preferred  approach.  Ittouches only

briefly on the Cultural Revolution.Itdoes

not  mention  the  famine caused by the

Great Leap Forward that killedtensofmil­

lions, nor any casualties inthecrushingof

the pro­democracy protestsatTiananmen

Square in 1989. The sectiononMrXi’sten­

ure  takes  up  more  than  aquarterofthe

book.  Mr  Xi’s  predecessors,HuJintaoand

Jiang Zemin, are given muchlessspace.

The  new  resolution  will suggestthat

China  needs  Mr  Xi  in  ordertofulfillong­

term goals such as turning thecountryinto

a  “great  modern  socialist  nation”by 2035

and  a  “prosperous”  and  “strong”one by

2049, the 100th anniversaryofthePeople’s

Republic.  It  will  probably mention his

“common prosperity” campaigntoreduce

inequality and his “dual circulation”strat­

egy to make the economy moreresilientto

external  shocks  like  the pandemic and

trade disputes with America.Itisexpected

to  describe  a  grim  internationalenviron­

ment,  though  America  anditsalliesmay

not be named. And it willprobablyrepeat

the  party’s  ritual  languageaboutTaiwan,

saying it must be reunitedwiththemain­

land.  China’s  failure  to  retakeTaiwanhas

been  a  sore  point  for  everyleadersince

Mao. The resolution is suretomentionMr

Xi’s call for the “great revivaloftheChinese

nation”  by  2049,  which  suggeststhathe

aims to secure reunificationbeforethen.A

specific promise is unlikely.

In anticipation of the plenum,thepro­

paganda apparatus has beguncrankingout

fawning  articles  about  Mr Xi’s wisdom,

hoping,  it  would  seem,  tofosterenthusi­

asm  for  the  idea  that  he  willcarryonrul­

ing.  On  November  1st  People’sDaily, the

party’s mouthpiece, began publishinga se­

ries  of  editorials  under  thetitle“Crucial

decisions  in  the  new  era”.Theyhailthe

party’s achievements sinceitwasfounded

in 1921, and praise Mr Xi’s contributionsto

them. From Mr Xi’s perspective,theresolu­

tion  “not  only  has  to  lookbackoverthe

past, but it has to look to thefuture”,says

Joseph  Fewsmith  of  Boston University.

And  according  to  Mr  Fewsmith, Mr Xi

thinks, “The future, c’est moi.”n

Militarystrategy

An unpacific

contest

W

henamericaandtheSovietUnion

racedeachothertobuildever­larger

nucleararsenalsduringthecoldwar,Chi­

naambleddisdainfully.Itdidnotdetonate

itsfirstnuclearweaponuntil 1964 andkept

onlyafewhundredwarheads compared

withthetensofthousandspiledupbythe

superpowers.Tothisdayitmaintainsit

willneverbethefirsttousenukesina war.

Evenso,Chinaissprintingtocatchup.

In its latest annual assessment, the

PentagonsaysChina’sstockpileofnuclear

warheads,whichlastyearit reckonedtobe

inthe“low­200s”,couldtripletoabout 700

by 2027 and willprobably quintuple to

1,000 ormore by 2030. That is sharply

higher than America’sprevious forecast

thatthearsenalwoulddoubleinsizeby

then.Thatwouldstillleaveitsmallerthan

America’sorRussia’s:thosecountrieseach

haveabout4,000warheads.

Thereport’sconclusionsexplainAmer­

ica’salarmaboutChina’smilitarymodern­

isation. Hitherto the greatestworry has

beenaboutitsconventionalarms,notably

itsgrowingabilitytooverwhelmandin­

vadeTaiwan,andstopAmericafromcom­

ing to the rescue. Now the anxiety is

spreadingtothenucleardomain.

Speculationaboutthenuclearbuild­up

mountedinJuneandJuly,whenresearch­

ersspottedthatChinawasbuildinghun­

dredsofmissilesilosinGansu,a western

province,andinXinjiang,itsneighbour.

ThenthegeneralswerestunnedbyChina’s

testing ofa new weapon—a hypersonic

glidevehiclemountedona largerocket—

that  could  deliver  a  nuclear  warhead  at

high speed while evading anti­missile de­

fences. The chairman of the joint chiefs of

staff, General Mark Milley, said it was close

to  being  a  “Sputnik  moment”—the  shock

America  felt  when  the  Soviet  Union  sent

the first satellite into orbit in 1957. 

The  Pentagon  believes  China  is  build­

ing  fast­breeder  reactors  to  make  more

weapons­grade  plutonium;  may  already

have created a full “triad”, ie, the ability to

launch nuclear weapons from the land, sea

and air; and is expanding its early­warning

systems, with help from Russia. 

All  told,  China  is  shifting  to  a  “launch

on warning” doctrine. Rather than rely on a

minimal deterrent to retaliate after an ini­

tial  nuclear  attack,  China  would  hence­

forth  fire  at  the  first  sign  of  an  incoming

strike,  even  before  the  enemy  warheads

have landed. This posture is akin to that of

America and Russia, notes James Acton of

the  Carnegie  Endowment,  a  think­tank  in

Washington, “but increases the risk of in­

advertent  launch,  such  as  a  response  to  a

false warning”. 

Some  Chinese  strategists  have  debated

moving to “mutual assured destruction”—

the  doctrine  that  animated  both  super­

powers in the cold war—and even have dis­

cussed  when  it  would  make  sense  to  be

first to use nuclear weapons. They have al­

so  considered  low­yield  weapons  that

could be used in a limited manner, without

initiating all­out nuclear war.

Why  should  China  be  building  up  its

nukes?  After  all,  America  and  Russia  this

year extended the New starttreaty, which

limits  their  arsenals.  America  is  thinking

of reducing the role of nuclear weapons by

declaring that their “sole purpose” is to de­

ter or retaliate against nuclear attack.

One reason is China’s worry that its ar­

senal  is  too  small  to  survive  an  American

first strike. Many of its warheads could be

destroyed by nuclear weapons or accurate

conventional  missiles;  any  remaining

ones that are launched might then be taken

out by America’s anti­missile systems.

China  is  modernising  its  land­based

missiles  by  building  mobile  launchers

with solid­fuel rockets, which are easier to

hide and quicker to fire than older models.

It is also working on its triad. As well as de­

ploying  more  nuclear  submarines  with

ballistic  missiles,  China  has  brought  into

service  the  h6­nbomber,  which  can  also

launch such a weapon. And it has deployed

an earlier version of a hypersonic missile,

the df­17 (pictured).

Xi Jinping, China’s leader, says he wants

to  build  a  “world­class”  military  force  by

2049, the centenary of the Communist Par­

ty’s takeover, as part of the “great revival of

the Chinese nation”. A powerful country, it

seems, musthavepowerful nuclear forces

to match—especially if it is going to stand

up to America.n

WASHINGTON, DC

The Pentagon warns that China is fast

building up its nuclear arsenal

Hypersonic and hypervigilant