The Econmist - USA (2021-11-06)

40 MiddleEast&Africa TheEconomistNovember6th 2021

which could easily erupt if the ola attacks

Addis Ababa. Both groups have competing

claims of ownership over the city. “There is

a real, palpable sense of fear,” says a West­

ern diplomat in the capital. 

Abiy’s  emergency  decree  provides  for

sweeping powers of arrest as well as draco­

nian  restrictions  on  free  assembly,  move­

ment and on any media which the govern­

ment  deems  to  back  the  tplf.  It  also  ap­

pears  to  lay  the  ground  for  military  con­

scription.  For  weeks  the  Amhara  regional

government has been sending busloads of

young  men,  some  armed  with  machetes

and  knives,  into  battle.  An  adviser  to  the

prime  minister  told  the  state  broadcaster

on  October  31st  that  mass  mobilisation

would be needed to defeat the rebels. 

Foreign  governments  are  scrambling

for a peace plan. On November 2nd Ameri­

ca  announced  that  it  would  freeze  duty­

free  access  for  Ethiopian  goods  under  the

African  Growth  and  Opportunity  Act.  It  is

also expected to slap sanctions on officials

if the warring parties do not negotiate. 

Yet such diplomacy may already be too

late.  Abiy’s  government  is  denouncing

calls for talks as an affront to its sovereign­

ty.  And  as  Tigrayan  forces  have  advanced,

their appetite for negotiations has waned,

too.  “What  kind  of  negotiations  can  there

be  with  such  a  criminal  government?”

Tsadkan Gebretensae, one of the tplf’s top

commanders,  asked  in  a  recent  interview

with a Tigrayan broadcaster. 

Then there is the problem of the Eritre­

an  forces,  which  joined  Abiy’s  troops

shortly after the war broke out a year ago.

Eritrea’s president, Issaias Afwerki, is a bit­

ter foe of the tplf. Between 1998 and 2000

the  newly  independent  Eritrea  fought  a

bloody  border  war  against  Ethiopia,  then

dominated  by  the  tplf,  that  cost  perhaps

100,000  lives.  Since  the  tplf  recaptured

most  of  Tigray  in  June,  the  Eritreans  have

been quiet, seeming to bide their time for a

final showdown. “A peaceful settlement is

unacceptable for Issaias, because it would

legitimise the tplf,” saysa seasoned Ethio­

pian analyst. So the battleforAddis Ababa

inches nearer by the day.n

SOMALIA

SOUTH

SUDAN

ETHIOPIA

UGANDA KENYA

SUDAN

DJIBOUTI

ERITREA

Red Sea

Gulf

of Aden

Addis

Ababa

Tigray

Mekelle

Oromia

Amhara

Afar

Kombolcha

Dessie

300 km SouthAfrica

Hegemonnomore

J

acobzuma, SouthAfrica’sformerpresi­

dent,wasfondofsayingthattheAfrican

NationalCongress(anc) wouldruleuntil

Jesuscameback.Givenhisparty’sperfor­

manceinlocalelectionsonNovember1st,

“Christalive!”wouldbeanunderstandable

reaction.Theancwonabout46%ofthe

vote—the firsttimeithasdippedunder

50%ina nationwideballotsinceapartheid

endedin1994.Theresultssuggestthatif

thereistobea secondcoming,it isunlike­

lytobebythepartyofNelsonMandela.

Theanc’sslidehastwocauses.First,

blackSouthAfricans,whoare80%ofthe

populationandconstitutetheanc’sbase,

weremorelikelytostayathomethanmi­

norities,whotendtosupportotherparties.

Turnoutintownships,whicharenearlyall

black, was 40­45%, estimates Dawie

Scholtz,a psephologist.Bycontrast55­65%

of voters in suburbs, which are more

mixed,wenttothepolls.Thesecondisthat

moreoftheblackSouthAfricanswhovot­

edchosepartiesotherthantheanc.

MostSouthAfricansfeelthattheancis

nolongera partythatwillimprovetheir

lot.Pollsshowthatjobsarethemostpress­

ingissue.Morethana thirdoftheoverall

labourforce—andtwo­fifthsoftheblack

one—isunemployed.Realgdpperperson

islowerthanitwas 15 yearsago.Foodpric­

esarearound10%higherthana yearago.

Corruption,endemicunderMrZuma,en­

duresdespitethebetterintentionsofhis

successor,CyrilRamaphosa.Publicservic­

essuchaselectricity,water,schoolsand

hospitalsarecrumbling.

Afragmentedpoliticsisreplacinganc

hegemony. The official opposition, the

DemocraticAlliance(da), wona littlemore

than21%ofthevote,a highersharethan

someinthepartyfeared,butdownfromits

highof27%inthepreviouslocalelections

in2016.Itagainstruggledtowooblacks,

manyofwhomdistrustwhattheyseeasa

“white party”.At thesame time itshed

somelong­standingvoters,especiallyAfri­

kaners(whitesofmainlyDutchdescent)

and“coloured” (mixed­race) South Afri­

cans.Someinthesegroupsvotedforiden­

tity­based parties such as the Freedom

FrontPlus,a right­wingAfrikaneroutfit.If

MrRamaphosa’sfactionintheancandthe

daconstitutethecentreofSouthAfrican

politics,it isnotholding.

Otheridentity­basedpartiesandpopu­

listsalsomadegains.InpartsofKwaZulu­

Natal,hometomanymembersofSouthAf­

rica’slargestethnicgroup,theZulus,the

anclostgroundtotheInkathaFreedom

Party,aZulunationalistgroup. Someof

thisshiftpartly reflected eventsin July,

whenmassunrestbrokeoutaftertheim­

prisonmentofMrZuma,a Zulu,fordefy­

inga courtorder—riotsthatMrRamapho­

sadenouncedas“actsofviolencebasedon

ethnicmobilisation”.MrZumawassoon

releasedonmedicalparole,thoughhecer­

tainlyseemedsprightlywhenheturnedup

tovotewithoneofhiswives.

Elsewhere,includinginthecityofDur­

ban, the hard­left Economic Freedom

Fighters(eff) underthefieryJuliusMale­

ma pickedupsupport. InJohannesburg

theActionsaparty,aright­wingpopulist

outfitfoundedonlylastyearbyHerman

Mashaba,theformerdamayorofthecity,

wonaround16%ofthevote.

Allofwhichmeansthat,underSouth

Africa’ssystemofproportionalrepresenta­

tion,coalitionswillberequiredtogovern

moretownsandcities.Asin2016,there

wasnooutrightwinnerinJohannesburg,

PortElizabethorPretoria. Thesameisnow

trueofDurban,onceanancstronghold.

Theancisincreasinglya ruralparty.Al­

thoughit usuallydoesbetter ingeneral

elections,theseresultssuggestthatthere

couldbea coalitionatthenationallevel

afterthenextone,in2024.

Thatcouldmeana pragmatic,moderate

alliancebetweenMrRamaphosa’sancand

the da. But notnecessarily. There is a

chanceMrRamaphosamaynotmakethe

ballot. His many opponentswithin the

ancmaytrytoblamehimforthisweek’s

poor results, althoughpolls show heis

morepopularthanhisparty.Andhisparty

mayprefertoworkwithsmallerrivalslike

theeffratherthantheda. Ifit does,South

Africawillbedraggedtotheinvestor­scar­

ingpopulistleft.

Southern Africa’s ruling parties can

seemimmovable.Angola,Botswana,Mo­

zambique,NamibiaandZimbabweareall

governedbythesamepartiesthattookov­

erafterwhiteruleended.Butnotallare

popular;somerigelectionstostayinof­

fice.InMalawiandZambiavotershavere­

centlyvotedoppositionpartiesintopower.

Theancseesitselfasexceptionalbecause

it negotiatedanendtoapartheid.Butthese

resultsshowthatifitfailstoimprovepeo­

ple’slives,itshegemonywillend.n

J OHANNESBURG

Localelectionssuggesttherulingparty

willneedcoalitionstostayincharge

When’s the party over?

South Africa, municipal elections, % of vote

Source: Electoral Commission of South Africa

2021

2016

100806040200

ANC DA IFP EFF Others