The Econmist - USA (2021-11-06)

44 Middle East & Africa TheEconomistNovember6th 2021

consulates  on  the  continent;  most  of  Mo­

rocco’s foreign investment goes to sub­Sa­

haran  Africa.  This  has  paid  off:  less  than

half  the  au’s  members  now  recognise

Western  Sahara.  In  general,  Morocco’s  in­

fluence  in  Africa  is  growing—as  Algeria’s

wanes.  When  two  Moroccan  truck  drivers

were killed crossing the Sahara earlier this

year,  jihadists  were  blamed.  But  Western

diplomats suspect Algeria, trying to thwart

Morocco’s push south, played a role. 

The  situation  in  Western  Sahara  com­

plicates  Morocco’s  foreign  relations  else­

where.  In  September  the  General  Court  of

the European Union annulled fishing and

agriculture  agreements  between  the  eu

and  Morocco  because  they  included  the

territory.  (An  appeal  is  pending.)  Earlier

this  year  the  kingdom  allowed  thousands

of would­be migrants to descend on Ceuta,

a  Spanish  enclave,  because  Spain  had  ad­

mitted  Brahim  Ghali,  the  leader  of  Polisa­

rio, for treatment for covid­19. Morocco al­

so fell out with Germany over its “negative

attitude” towards Western Sahara.

In October the unSecurity Council ex­

tended  minurso,  the  un‘s  peacekeeping

mission in Western Sahara, and called for

the  resumption  of  talks.  A  new  unenvoy,

Staffan de Mistura, has been appointed for

the territory. But America’s position is con­

fusing  matters.  The  resolution  extending

minursocalled for “self­determination of

the  people  of  Western  Sahara”,  a  phrase

added  by  America,  reportedly  at  the  re­

quest  of  Russia.  That  would  seem  to  con­

flict with America’s official position of re­

cognising Moroccan control. President Joe

Biden has yet to say whether he will main­

tain that stance, which critics argue sets a

dangerous precedent.

Channelling their anger

Polisario  leaders,  based  in  refugee  camps

near the Algerian city of Tindouf, say that

Morocco’s  manoeuvring  left  them  no

choice but to break the ceasefire. But they

were  also  under  pressure  at  home.  The

173,000  Sahrawi  refugees  in  Algeria  are

growing restless. They say it hasn’t rained

in  Tindouf  in  years  and  that  their  herds

have been struck by disease. International

aid has fallen. Yet Algeria seems intent on

keeping the Sahrawis in the camps so that

they don’t abandon the struggle. Polisario

worries that the frustration could boil over

or  lead  to  radicalisation.  “The  situation  is

like  a  volcano  which  could  erupt,”  says  a

Sahrawi journalist.

The fighting has bought the leadership

time. But young Sahrawis now want to es­

calate. “They don’t feel that we are in a true

war yet,” says Bachir Mustapha, an adviser

to  Mr  Ghali.  Malainin  Lakhal,  a  Sahrawi

diplomat,  agrees.  Young  Sahrawis  “want

attacks”,  he  says.  “They  want  prisoners.

They want to see big operations like in the

1970s  and  1980s.”  Many  of  them  have

signedupformilitarytraining.Sahrawis

livingabroadhavemadegruellingten­day

trips through theMauritanian desertto

linkupwithSahrawiforcesandskirtAlge­

ria’scovid­relatedtravelrestrictions.

ThewarhasputwindinPolisario’ssails

for thefirst time inyears. Whatcomes

next, though,isnotclear.MrMustapha

promisesa “secondphase”offighting.“All

theleadershipisforthis,”hesays.ButPol­

isario’smilitarycapacitydeclinedduring

theceasefireandisnowherenearthatof

Morocco.ItisnormaltoseeSahrawioffi­

cerswellintotheir70scommandingsol­

diersintheirearly20s.Algeria’ssupport

wouldbeessentialifthingswerereallyto

kickoff.PolisariohopesAlgeriawillseethe

warasa chancetorevitalisethecountry’s

driftingforeignpolicy.

SomeinPolisariowanttopursueother

tactics,suchasattackingdeeperinMoroc­

can­occupiedterritory.Itis“muchmore

than a possibility”, says Mohamed Wali

Akeik,whowasrecentlynamedchiefof

staffoftheSahrawiarmy.“Companiesand

consulates,airlinesandothersectors”are

allpotentialtargets,hesays.Muchofthis

maybebluster.Polisariolikestoclaimthat

itsartillerybarragesandraidsareunder­

miningMoroccanmorale.Ithopesanyes­

calation will make Morocco uncomfort­

ableenoughtomakeconcessions.

Morocco’stroops,though,aredigging

in along the frontline. Its surveillance

dronespatroltheskiesoverWesternSaha­

ra;inSeptemberitreceiveda firstbatchof

Turkish combat drones.Morocco’s mili­

taryspendingroseby29%lastyear.Algeria

fearsitwillworkwithIsraeltoimposeits

willontheregion.Moroccanofficialsvoice

supportforAlgeria’sBerberseparatistsand

suggestthatitsrulinggeneralsshouldre­

turntothebarracks.Algeria,inturn,has

movedtroopstotheborder.Diplomatssay

it isworkingwiththeWagnerGroup,a con­

troversialRussiansecurityfirm.

ThereislittlechancethatPolisariowill

achieve its dream of independence for

WesternSahara.Someobserversthinkthat

isforthebest.WithoutthesupportofMo­

rocco,anindependentSahrawistatemight

struggle. ItwouldhavehelpfromAlgeria,

whichisricher thanMoroccothanks to

abundanthydrocarbons.ButAlgeriaitself

isinturmoil.Effortstoweantheeconomy

offoilandgashavefaltered.Bigprotestsin

2019 ledtothepresident’sresignation.The

public,though,seesthenewoneasa pup­

petofthearmy.Thestateispreoccupied

withcrackingdownongroupsassociated

withthepro­democracyHirakmovement.

Naetoautonomy

Moroccoisbetterpreparedforthefuture.It

ishometoAfrica’slargestcarandplane

manufacturersanditsfastesttrains.Over

60%ofMoroccanshavereceivedtwojabs

ofcovid­19vaccine,comparedwith10%of

Algerians.Morethana thirdofthecoun­

try’senergycomesfromrenewables.Yet

SahrawisontheMoroccansidehaveplenty

tobeunhappyabout.Thosewhotalkofin­

dependencesaytheyaredeniedjobs.Ac­

tivistsarehoundedbythepolice.Asfor

Morocco’s offer of autonomy, Sahrawis

pointtotherepressivemonarchy.Itwould

notbelikeScotlandinBritain,theysay.

Ofcoursethingsareworseontheother

sideoftheberm, wheremany Sahrawis

have spent their whole lives in dusty

camps.SometookpartintheHirak—and

havethoughtsaboutPolisario’sleadership.

MrGhaliis72.YetPolisario’sgreyinglead­

ersseemdisinclinedtohandovertoa new

generation.Fornow,anyway,thefocusis

onthewar.Noonetruststheuntofinda

justpeace.IntheBoujdourrefugeecampa

youngSahrawiwomansaysrenewingthe

oldceasefireisoutofthequestion:“We

wouldnotallowthat.”The moodisthe

same on the frontline, where a fighter

calledOmarstandsarmedandready.“If

therearenegotiationsinthefuture,itwill

beunderthesoundofguns,”hesays.n

MAURITANIA MALI NIGER

LIBYA

Occupied

Canary byMorocco

Islands

(Spain)

Madeira

(Portugal)

PORTUGAL

ITALY

MOROCCO

SPAIN

ALGERIA

ATLANTICOCEAN

Polisario-held

territory

Tindouf

Sandberm

Rabat

Ceuta

Tangier (Spain)

Dakhla

Laayoune

Mahbes

Algiers

Gas pipeline

Maghreb-

Europe

pipeline

Mediterranean Sea

Mediterranean Sea

WESTERN

SAHARA

TUNTUNISIA

MALTA

400 km