The Econmist - USA (2021-11-06)

The Economist November 6th 2021 International 55

increasing the effectiveness of some sinks.
But this is not an unqualified benefit: trees
migratinginto  the  Arctic  Circle  thanks  to
“carbon­dioxide  fertilisation”  are  darken­
ing  land  that  had  been  snow­covered  and
white.  Darker  lands  absorb  more  energy
from  the  sun,  amplifying  the  warming  of
the polar region. 
All  these  ways  humans  affect  forests,
and  with  them  the  atmosphere,  are  devil­
ishly complicated to disentangle from one
another—and from what would have hap­
pened  in  their  absence.  Some  standards
and methods are in place. Independent sci­
entists  and  the  bean­counters  of  the  un
Framework  Convention  on  Climate
Change  have  devised  a  shorthand  to  help
countries measure their exhalation and in­
halation of carbon. 
In  annual  greenhouse­gas  inventories
that  countries  submit  to  the  un,  changes
in emissions in land labelled as “managed”
are  deemed  to  be  anthropogenic.  What
falls under “managed” varies by country; it
can  include  everything  from  pastures  on
deforested  land  to  protected  forests  that,
while  not  actively  managed,  firefighters
would  defend  if  spark  came  to  flame.  The
changes in emissions from managed land
thus include naturalcarbon cycling not di­
rectly affected by human activity. 
In addition to enabling some fuzziness
around  what  counts,  this system  allows
countries  to  offset  industrial  emissions
against  existing  forests.  For  example,
Myanmar’s latest greenhouse­gas invento­
ry shows it emits 8m tonnes of greenhouse
gases,  while  its  managed  forests  soak  up
96m  tonnes.  Although  the  country  still
burns fossil fuels, it can claim carbon neu­
trality  under  the  rules.  Myanmar’s  emis­
sions are a tiny fraction of the global annu­
al total of 52bn tonnes, so any fudging does
not matter much. 
The same cannot be said of Russia, the
world’s  fourth­largest  emitter.  For  years
Russia has viewed its vast forests as central
to  its  efforts  against  climate  change.  Rus­
sia’s commitment to the Paris goals is to re­
duce its emissions by 2030 by 70% relative
to  1990  levels,  “taking  into  account  the
maximum  possible  absorptive  capacity  of
forests and other ecosystems”. In 2019 Rus­
sia claimed its forests absorbed the equiva­
lent of 25% of its emissions. 
That effect is declining, as ageing trees
soak up smaller amounts of CO 2 . According
to  Russia’s  Ministry  of  Environment  and
Natural Resources, the sink will drop to ze­
ro—emitting  as  much  carbon  as  it  ab­
sorbs—within  40  years.  It  was  a  boon,
then, when last year Russia’s first invento­
ry of its forests since the mid­1990s found
that  their  volume had  increased  by  25%.
Earlier  this  year,  a study  published  in  Na-
ture,  a  scientific  journal,  calculated  that
this carbon sink is 47% greater than previ­
ously understood. Much of the increase is

becauseofnaturalgrowth,asforestsre­

claimabandonedagriculturallandortrees

creepnorth.Suchrevisionsareworthhun­

dredsofmillionsoftonnesofcarbonemis­

sions,andshouldshowupinRussia’sfu­

tureinventories.

Toaddtothiswindfall,Russia recently

announceditwouldincludeunmanaged

“reserve”forestsalongsidemanagedfor­

estsinitsgreenhouse­gasinventory.That

couldimproveRussia’sannualreports,if

nottheclimate,byhelpingtoaddhun­

dredsofmillionsoftonnesofCO 2 toitsfor­

estsink.

Thenumbersracket

Sharedstandardsformeasuringthecontri­

bution of trees to national emissions

wouldmakeiteasiertocompareprogress,

countrybycountry,towardsclimategoals.

Butecologistshavewarnedthata discon­

nectbetweennationalgreenhouse­gasin­

ventoriesandtheestimatesbyindepen­

dentscientistscurrently makesthisim­

possible.Becauseofficialgreenhouse­gas

inventoriescountemissionsfromloosely

defined“managed”ecosystemsasanthro­

pogenic,andglobalclimatemodelsusea

morenarrow classification,thetwosys­

temsyielddifferentresults.

Accordingto climatemodels, Earth's

landmassesemit5.5bntonnesmoreCO 2

eachyearthantheinventoriesaccountfor.

Neithercountisbetter,saytheresearchers,

but since the climate models map out

paths toastableclimate,andtheinven­

tories track progress along those paths,

theyarecomparingapplesandoranges.

Thisrelates to the talks in Glasgow,

where delegates will be finalising the

guidelinesfora “globalstocktake”thatwill

seepartiestotheParisagreementassess

theircollectiveprogresstowardstheParis

goals. Fortheexercisetobemeaningful,it

mustadjust forthedisconnect between

nationalinventoriesandclimatemodels,

orriskgivingtheimpressionthatgovern­

mentsaredoingbetterthantheyare.

Improvedstandardswouldalsocreatea

sounderbasisforthegrowingmarketin

carbonoffsets,andthushelpmarshalthe

privatesectoragainstclimatechange.For

example,Brazilian politicians seeglobal

tradingincarboncredits,envisionedinar­

ticle 6 oftheParisagreement,asa silver

bullet for reducing deforestation, the

causeofroughlyhalfofBrazil’semissions.

Theirthinkingisthata globalcarbonmar­

ketwillturnforestsintoa tradablecom­

modity,makinglandintheAmazonmore

valuablewithtreesthanwithout.

Buttohelpstabilisetheclimate,pro­

jectsthatreceivecarboncreditsforstop­

pingdeforestation,orpromotingrefores­

tation,mustbeabletodemonstratethey

aredecreasingemissionsthatwouldoth­

erwisehavetakenplace—incarbonoffset

jargon,thisisknownasadditionality.Itis

possible,forinstance,tobuycarbonoff­

setsforprotectingtreesintheAmazonian

stateofPará.Butmostlandthereisalready

federallyprotected,andsoshouldnotbe

seenasa basisforcarboncredits.

Whenitcomestoforests,thecarbon­

offsetmarketisalsounablenowtofactor

inwhatisknownaspermanence.Replac­

inga dieselbuswithanelectriconeproba­

blyremovesemissionsforever:withany

lucktherewillbenodieselbuseslefttobuy

whentheelectriconereachestheendofits

life.Buta patchofforestcanbeclearedor

burntina decade,orevennextweek.How

canthemarketensurethatoffsetsbought

todayhaveenduringeffects?AndinBrazil

andelsewhere,programmestoreforestor

plantnewforestscomewitha leakagepro­

blem:savingonebitoflandmayencourage

deforestationelsewhere.

Alltheseproblemsapplytotheexist­

ing,voluntarycarbonmarkets.Anecon­

omyticketona flightfromLondontoNew

Yorkgeneratessome600kgofCO 2 ; offsets

forthatcarboncanbeboughtforaslittleas

a fewdollars through commercial tree­

plantingschemes.Thatmayeasea travel­

ler’sconsciencebutdoeslittletoprotect

theclimate.Overthecomingfortnight,de­

legatesatcop 26 willtrytoreachagreement

onguidelinestoassurepermanenceand

accountforadditionality,inhopesofcre­

atinga modelthatcanbeemulatedinthe

voluntarymarkets.

Thatisalltothegood.Thereisindeed

nopoemlovelyasa tree,andcarbonoff­

sets,andtheforeststheymaycausetobe

plantedorprotected,canhelpslowclimate

change.Butforthattohappentheworld’s

leaderswillneedtodemandfarlesspopu­

larmeasuresaswell,likeendingtheuseof

fossilfuelsandtransformingfarming.Cli­

matemodelsshowthatecosystemsinks

willbemosteffectiveatabsorbingCO 2 if

warmingremainsintherangeoftheParis

goals.Iftemperaturessoar,aslookslikely,

carbon­richtropicalecosystemswilldry

out,burnandbecomecarbonsourcesrath­

erthansinks.Treescannotsolvethecli­

matecrisis.Onlypeoplecan.n

A mixed picture

Global forest land change, hectares per year, m

Source:FAO

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

2015-

20

2010-

15

2000-

10

1990-

2000

Deforestation

Expansion