The Econmist - USA (2021-10-30)

TheEconomistOctober30th 2021

Graphic detail Electric vehicles

97

The grid’s

the thing

“A

llisrotary, beautifullyperfectand

wonderfully efficient,” said one evan­

gelist  for  electric  vehicles  (evs).  “There  is

not that almost terrifying uncertain throb

and whirr of the powerful combustion en­

gine...no dangerous and evil smelling gas­

oline  and  no  noise.  Perfect  freedom  from

vibration  assures  both  comfort  and  peace

of mind.” Translated into Twitter­ese, such

views  would  not  sound  out  of  place  from

Elon  Musk.  But  their  author  was  Thomas

Edison, pioneer of the light bulb, in 1903.

Then  as  now,  evs  posed  a  competitive

threat to petrol­powered cars. In 1905 most

commercial  vehicles  were  evs.  Ads  aimed

at affluent women touted evs’ cleanliness,

ease of use and lack of exhaust.

Yet by the 1920s, evs were a dying breed.

The  standard  account  of  their  demise  is

that  drivers  were  put  off  by  their  limited

range  andhighercost,relativetopetrol­

powered cars. However, a new paper by Jo­

sef  Taalbi  and  Hana  Nielsen  of  Lund  Uni­

versity  argues  that  their  main  disadvan­

tage was instead a lack of infrastructure.

The authors consider various causes of

petrol’s triumph in 1900­10. Cost is unlike­

ly, since until 1910 petrol­powered cars and

evs of the same model type were similarly

priced.  As  for  range,  evs  managed  a  re­

spectable  90  miles  (145km)  by  the  1910s.

Had this been evs’ principal handicap, bat­

tery­swapping  stations,  which  replaced

depleted  batteries  with  charged  ones  in

seconds, could have become as common as

petrol stations did.

To test other explanations, the authors

analysed  the  specifications  and  produc­

tion  sites  of  37,000  model­year  pairs  of

American cars in 1895­1942. Although pet­

rol­powered cars were the most common,

their  market  share  varied  by  location.  In

places  with  the  infrastructure  evs  need­

ed—smooth roads, which reduced jostling

of heavy batteries, and ample electricity—

production of evs was unusually common.

In areas without such capacity, petrol pre­

dominated.  These  vehicles’  infrastructure

needs  were  largely  met  before  they  were

invented,becausemanyruralstoresalrea­

dy stocked petrol for farm equipment. 

The study then used a statistical model

to  predict  how  automotive  history  might

have  differed  if  the  power  grid  had  devel­

oped  faster.  It  finds  that  if  the  amount  of

electricity  America  produced  by  1922  had

been available in 1902, 71% of car models in

1920  would  have  been  evs  (though  long­

distance motorists would still have chosen

petrol cars). Accounting for the extra pow­

er generation such a fleet would need, this

would  have  cut  America’s  carbon­dioxide

emissions from cars in 1920 by 44%.

A century later, the quantity and speed

of charging stations still limit purchases of

evs  by  drivers  worried  about  long  trips.

The  infrastructure  gap,  however,  is  nar­

rowing. Tesla, whose shares are now worth

$1trn,  has  set  up  25,000  speedy  “super­

chargers”  (though  only  Tesla  drivers  can

use  them).  And  a  bipartisan  bill  recently

passed  by  America’s  Senate  includes

$7.5bn to boost charging capacity. As world

leaders gather at next week’s cop26 confer­

ence to negotiate a reduction in global car­

bon­dioxide emissions, the studysuggests

that  more  support  for  ev infrastructure

could have an outsized impact.n

Insufficient infrastructure doomed the

first generation of electric cars

→ Production of early electric cars clustered in areas with an ample supply of electricity and good roads

American cars manufactured between 1897-1910*

Numberofmodels CO2emissions,kg/mile Pavedroads

*Locationshavebeenmovedslightlysothatoverlappingpointsarevisible Sources:“Theroleofenergyinfrastructure in

shapingearlyadoptionofelectricandgasolinecars”,byJ. Taalbi& H.Nielsen,NatureEnergy, 2021;EPA;LibraryofCongress

10,000 100,000 1m 10m 100m

0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00

SomeofNewYork’sfirsttaxiswere

Electrobats,namedfortheirpowersource

Milesofroadpersquaremilewherecarwasmade

In190

Petrol-powered Electric-powered

Average Average

Log scale

Electricity output of county where car was made

In 1902, kilowatt-hours

Henry Ford’s 1908 Model-T

accelerated petrol’s rise

The electric Columbia Motor Carriage, built in road-

rich Connecticut, was the must-have car in 1897

Thomas Edison’s first car

was a Baker Electric

By 1909, President William Taft made a

petrol-powered Pierce Arrow his ocial car

In 1907 In 192  

0

0.8

0.2

0.4

0.6

1910 15 20 25 30 35 40

Passenger-vehicle

average, 2021

Petrol Petrol

Electric Electric

Steam

1

10

100

1,000

1900 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 42

Log scale