Theimpactofa warmingworldwillnotbefeltequally.But
a newreportfromDeloittesuggeststhata swifteconomic
transitioncannotonlyoffsetthedamagedoneto those
mostatriskfromclimatechange,butalsopresentnew
opportunitiesforglobaleconomicgrowth.
ThestudyimaginestwoEuropes– onethatachieves
carbon-neutralityby 2050 andonethatdoesnot– and
howthecontinentis wellpositionedtoreaptheeconomic
benefits of decarbonisation.Thatis, if it choosesto actfast
onitsambition,ratherthanprocrastinate.
Accordingtoitsanalysis,a futureEuropethatmovesfull-
speedtowarddecarbonisation,alongsidetherestofthe
world,wouldenjoyaneconomythatis €400bnlargerper
year,onaverage,intheperiodbetween 2050 and2070,
witha gainineconomicoutputof€730bnin 2070 alone.
Thesegainsarerelativetoa worldofclimateinaction,
wherewarmingreachesover3°C.
“Policyandinvestmentdecisionsmadeinthenextseveral
yearswilllargelyshapetheeconomicandclimaticfuture
thattheregionandtheworldwillinherit,”warntheauthors
ofthereport,Europe’sturningpoint:Acceleratingnewgrowth
onthepathtozero.“Thatnarrowwindowmakesit even
moreimportantthattheeconomicsofa warmingworld
areunderstoodandincorporatedintobusinesses’decision
makingthataddressesthemultiplemarketfailuresof
climatechange.”
Intheworldofinaction,thereportforeseesa European
economythathasa combinedGDPlossofasmuchas
€6trnby2070.Inthissmaller,climate-damagedfuture
modelledbyDeloitte,therecouldalsobe 110 million
fewerjobsavailableinEurope’seconomiesover 50 years,
diminishingtheregion’slong-term economic prospects.Everyinstanceinwhicha warming world impedes
productivity,reducesqualityoflife and damages resources,
orinhibitsEurope’sabilitytoplaya pivotal role in green
innovation,anopportunityis missed to grow the economy.WhyEuropemustact first
Regionaldifferenceswouldbesignifi cant. Italy and
SouthernEurope,whichis particularly susceptible to
heatandocean-levelrise,standsto feel the ill effects
ofa warmingplanetmostseverely, with a reduction in
workforcebyasmuchas 60 million jobs over 50 years,
thereportfound.Theprivateandpublicservices,retail trade and tourism,
constructionandheavymanufacturing are also poised to
takethemostpunishingblowsfrom climate change—a
findingthatemphasizeshowmuch Europe especially
standstoloseina rapidlychanging world, given about
80%ofEurope’seconomyhasthe highest risk exposure to
climatedamage.Ontheotherhand,thereportsuggests that Europe’s
integrationintheglobaleconomy means it can set the tone
fortherestoftheworld,givenit accounts for a quarter of
globaltrade,andcanthereforecatalyse decarbonisation for
economiesacrosstheglobe.It hasalsofound,usingitsinternal index of economic
complexity,thatEuropeis comparatively up to the
challengeof beingflexibleamidrapid decarbonisation
becauseit canbringitsstrengthof economic and industry
connectionstobear.AndDeloitte’s report is optimistic
aboutsomeofthestridesEuropean nations have already
taken,likethemulti-decadeheadstart in renewable energy.ADVERTISEMENT
Fast movers will fi nd value in a sustainable economic transition