56 United States The Economist October 30th 2021
No one lovesJoe Biden
A
rlington, homeof Robert E. Lee and a cemetery dug venge
fully on his front lawn, is barely in Virginia these days. The
city’s tony apartments and itfirms have long made it feel like an
extension of Washington. That, in turn, made it relatively safe for
Joe Biden, one cold and blowy evening this week, to flit across the
Potomac and dip his toes into Virginia’s gubernatorial race.
It would have been awkward had he not, given how many
Democratic bighitters have flooded the state as the contest be
tween Terry McAuliffe and Glenn Youngkin has tightened. But no
one expected the increasingly troubled president to move many
votes. Even the irrepressible Mr McAuliffe, a force field of positivi
ty and Mr Biden’s friend for 40 years, admits that he is unpopular
in the commonwealth. This was implicit in the arrangements
made for the presidential visit. Only a tiny corner of a large Arling
ton park had been fenced off and floodlit for it—to create the safest
possible space in the most reliably Democratic city of a state that
Mr Biden won last year by ten points.
Only a modest Democratic crowd duly showed up. And its
members seemed ambivalent about the president. Asked for their
opinion of him, some said they were “indifferent”, others claimed
to have “no view”. Several of those quizzed by Lexington said they
knew nobody who was enthusiastic about him. “That’s not really
what he’s about,” said one woman, jiggling a “Terry for Virginia”
sign. Just one person, an Indiaborn woman huddled in the
gloom, richly praised the administration. She worked for a hospi
tal lobby and loved its increased healthcare spending.
As Mr Biden’s approval ratings have dived in recent months,
solid arguments have been offered in his defence. Most presidents
lose support in their first year, as the thermostatic nature of public
opinion asserts itself. And indeed his descent from 56% approval
after his inauguration to the low 40s today is similar to the slides
Barack Obama and Donald Trump suffered. Mr Biden has also
faced daunting headwinds, in the resurgence of covid19, the eco
nomic havoc it has wreaked and the fact that half of Americans
have not heard a good word said about him, so polarised have the
media become. History is against him in Virginia, too. As one of
the first states to vote after a general election, it often bloodies the
nose of whichever party occupies the White House. Yet such rationalisationscannotlessenthegravityof his predicament.
Mr Obama fell from such a high level after his first election that
he remained in positive territory. Mr Trump was never popular
outside his base—yet the more unpopular he got, the more its
members loved him. Taking the fight to the liberal mainstream
was his shtick. Neither ameliorating factor applies to Mr Biden. He
won by a much narrower margin than Mr Obama’s, which in itself
called the Biden shtick (his promise to unite the country against
Trumpism) into question. And that tension has increased as his
numbers have worsened.
In Arlington Mr Biden again focused, in his shouty way, on his
predecessor. “Remember this: I ran against Donald Trump and
Terry is running against an acolyte of Donald Trump!” The limits
of that message were exposed in the general election, not only by
Mr Trump’s robust losing performance, but also by how little dam
age other Republican candidates suffered by association. And the
former president is even less of a bogie today. Most voters—espe
cially independents, among whom Mr Biden’s slide has been
steepest—appear to have put him from their minds. Moreover, it
becomes increasingly hard to present yourself as a uniter, not a di
vider, when more than half the country thinks you’re doing badly.
If Mr Biden cannot reverse that impression, the outcome for
his party will be grim. Midterms are a referendum on the presi
dent, not his predecessor. His dire ratings are therefore setting
Democrats up for a hiding. History suggests they are consistent
with their losing control of both chambers. It also shows how hard
it will be for Mr Biden to claw his way back.
Among his recent predecessors, only Bill Clinton has staged a
major publicopinion comeback in peacetime, and he had the ad
vantages of an excellent economy and quicksilver political skills.
Mr Biden has neither. He is above all tied to covid19, the sort of
fundamental that is far more determinative of political success or
failure than most coverage suggests. Political performance tends
to be less of a factor; but there too Mr Biden is in trouble.
By recent standards, his administration has performed credit
ably. It is led by serious people, unlike its predecessor. And he ap
pears on track, despite Democrats’ slim congressional majority, to
sign more major legislation in his first year than Mr Obama. The
debacle in Afghanistan, which hit Mr Biden’s ratings hard, was a
blot, yet one that received blanket coverage in part because of how
uncharacteristic of the administration it was. Such incompetence,
which was expected of the Trump administration, is atypical of Mr
Biden’s—save in one respect, its ability to sell its aims and accom
plishments, at which he and his party are abject.
Hardly any nonlobbyist in the Arlington crowd could name a
significant thing the administration had done. Most knew con
gressional Democrats were haggling over the cost of a spending
package, but struggled to recall almost any of the climate and so
cial policies it contained. And this was in arguably the most edu
cated, switchedon, centreleft place in the country. The chances
of independent voters in Milwaukee or El Paso having half a clue
as to what Mr Biden is attempting would appear to be close to zero.In his labyrinth
Mr Trump was always selling his record, even when it didn’t exist.
By contrast Mr Biden and his party are not making a case for what
they are actually doing. Mr Clinton’s guru, James Carville, suggests
they dislike salesmanship. Or perhaps Mr Biden is no goodatit.Ei
ther way, he is falling short. If elections are about the future,asMr
Clinton liked to say, they cannot only be about Mr Trump.nLexington
Americans elected the president to get rid of his predecessor. They are not sure what else he can do