The Econmist - USA (2021-10-30)

The Economist October 30th 2021 MiddleEast&Africa 63

CounteringIran

Diplomacy by othermeans

T

wobytwotheyroaredintotheskyover
the Israeli desert—American f­16s, Brit­
ish  Typhoons,  French  Rafales  and  more—
to confront an unseen enemy called “Dra­
gonland”.  The  foes  of  war  games  are  ficti­
tious;  Israeli  officers  were  at  pains  to  say
the  exercise  was  “generic”.  Yet  Dragon­
land’s  force,  with  its  drones  and  air­de­
fence  missiles,  seemed  a  lot  like  Iran’s.
Such  exercises  “are  needed  to  face  Iran”,
noted one general.
The “Blue Flag” exercises at the Ovda air
base in the Negev desert are a form of mil­
itary  diplomacy,  and  a  signal  that  Israel,
the  host,  has  friends.  Israel  is  becoming
the hinge of two emerging military group­
ings: an eastern Mediterranean one to fend
off Turkey, and a Middle Eastern one to de­
ter  Iran.  The  number  of  Blue  Flag  partici­
pants has grown—seven countries, includ­
ing  India,  exercised  with  Israel  this  year.
The  United  Arab  Emirates’  air­force  chief
watched as an honoured guest.
Whether  any  of  these  friends  would
help Israel in a war with Iran is unclear. But
the proposition may be tested sooner than
some  expect.  Sabre­rattling  is  growing
louder  as  Iran’s  nuclear  programme  gath­
ers  pace  and  American  diplomacy  falters.
America  has  warned  that  it  would  look  at
“other options” and this month it tested a
new  bunker­buster  bomb.  The  Israeli  air
force  has  begun  rehearsing  attack  plans;
the government is allocating more money
to the armed forces to confront Iran. In Ma­
nama, Bahrain’s capital, on October 1st the
Israeli  and  Bahraini  foreign  ministers
posed for pictures in front of an American
warship.  Iran,  for  its  part,  has  staged  air­
defence  exercises  and  warned  Israel  of  a
“shocking response” to any attack.
Israel  has  entered  what  some  call  the
“dilemma zone”—weighing up the danger
of Iran going nuclear against the prospects
for diplomacy, the complexity of mounting
a  military  operation,  Iran’s  likely  retalia­
tion, and the response of America and re­
gional partners. Israel will not say what its
“red  lines”  are,  but  Western  diplomats
think  it  may  take  a  decision  to  act  by  the
end of the year.
Israel  has  been  here  before,  notably  in
2009­12,  when  it  threatened  to  bomb  Iran
but  stayed  its  hand.  Now,  though,  Iran  is
even  closer  to  having  the  wherewithal  to
make atom bombs. That is in part because
in  2018  Donald  Trump  abandoned  a  nuc­
lear  deal,  known  as  the  Joint  Comprehen­

sive  Plan  of  Action  (jcpoa),  that  limited

Iran’s nuclear programme and opened it up

to  enhanced  inspections  in  return  for  the

partial  lifting  of  international  sanctions.

Iran says it wants nuclear technology only

for  civilian  purposes,  yet  its  uranium  en­

richment has advanced to the point that its

“breakout time”—the time it would need to

make a bomb’s­worth of fissile material—

has shrunk from a year to about a month.

(Making a warhead to fit on a missile might

take another 18­24 months.)

Iran  seems  uninterested  in  America’s

call  for  a  return  to  “mutual  compliance”

with  the  jcpoa.  The  un’s  International

Atomic Energy Agency says its monitoring

of Iran’s activities is no longer “intact” be­

cause the regime is refusing to let it replace

damaged cameras.

Israel  has  twice  bombed  its  enemies’

nuclear  facilities—striking  an  Iraqi  nuc­

lear reactor in 1981 and a Syrian one in 2007.

But these were single air raids. Taking out

Iran’snuclearfacilitieswouldbefarmore

difficultbecause theyaredispersed and

someareburiedunderground(seemap).

IranhasalsoacquiredRussian­mades­300

air­defencemissiles.Anattackplanis“not

something you can prepare in just a

month”,saysanIsraeligeneral.

Israel’s operational challenges range

fromidentifyingthelocationofIranianfa­

cilitiesto theirleveloffortificationand

anti­aircraftdefences. Israelwouldbeop­

erating some1,500km (932 miles) away

fromitsbases,requiringair­to­airrefuell­

ingformanyaircraftoverpotentiallyhos­

tileterritory.Someanalystsbelieveitisall

beyondIsrael’scapabilities.Israelimilitary

plannersclaimotherwise,sayingtheycan

doenoughdamagetosetbackIran’snuc­

learprogrammebysomeyears.

Israel’staskwouldbeeasierifitsnew

Gulfallieswerewillingtohelpby,say,al­

lowingoverflightsorprovidingbases. But

themore they getinvolved, thelikelier

theyaretobecometargetsofretaliation.

Iran  has  threatened  to  close  the  Strait  of

Hormuz, through which much of the Gulf’s

oil passes, if attacked. Iran’s conventional

military capacity may be limited, but it has

built up a force of ballistic and other mis­

siles,  and  resorted  to  asymmetric  tactics,

such as sabotaging ships near its waters.

It also sponsors proxy militias—in Iraq,

Syria,  Yemen  and  Lebanon—that  give  it

military reach across the region. Hizbullah

in  Lebanon  has  thousands  of  rockets  that

can  be  rained  down  on  Israel’s  cities,  as

well as guided missiles and drones that can

strike  accurately.  Israel,  military  officials

note,  has  just  a  handful  of  power  stations

and desalination plants, and a single inter­

national airport. Hitting these would cause

“strategic  damage”.  Many  Gulf  states  are

even more vulnerable.

Much  will  depend  on  President  Joe  Bi­

den, who says he will not allow Iran to go

nuclear  on  his  watch.  Military  action  by

America would be more powerful than an

Israeli  raid,  not  least  because  it  has  larger

bunker­busting  weapons.  Even  if  it  just

gives  Israel  the  green  light  to  act  alone,

America might not be able to stay out of the

fighting. If Iran responds by widening the

conflict,  as  many  expect,  America  would

be called upon to keep the sea lanes open,

defend  allies  and  even  protect  itself.  Its

forces  in  Iraq  and  Syria  are  exposed  to  at­

tack. Having withdrawn from Afghanistan,

saying he wanted to end the “forever wars”

in the Muslim world, Mr Biden will be loth

to get sucked into another one.

Israel’s best hope is that its threat of ac­

tion,  combined  with  Western  diplomatic

and economic pressure, will persuade Iran

to agree to a diplomatic deal. “Iran can be

deterred,”  insists  one  Israeli  official,  “It

does not want to be North Korea.”Thedan­

ger is that the mullahs concludethatonly

nukes will keep their regime safe.n

OVDA AND WASHINGTON, DC
A military response is readied as hope fora nucleardealfades

Red

Sea

Med.

Sea

IRAN

EGYPT

SUDAN

BAHRAIN

KUWAIT

LEBANON SYRIA

IRAQ

TURKEY

QATAR

UAE

SAUDIARABIA

ISRAEL

Tehran

Jerusalem

Nuclear

facility

The

Gulf

Strait of

Hormuz

Ovda

air base

JORDAN

500 km OMAN

Off to slay the dragon