Politics and Civil Society in Cuba

Legal Dissent: Constitutional Proposals for “Cambio” in Cuba 155

dent activities (“cuentapropistas”), employment in joint venture enter-

prises between the government and foreign investors, self-

employment in black market activities, and survival on remittances

from family members overseas. These persons tend to comply with

the formalities of the political system in order to live with a minimum

of negative interference, and expand their activities during period of

tolerance, but must live in a constant state of “anxiety,” given the per-

manent possibility of a crackdown (Corrales 2004: 51).

A possible coalition? The willingness of the disaffected and the disen-

gaged to continue their tacit support of the true believers’ political

project is arguably the major inertial factor in Cuba’s current political,

economic and social situation. Given the current balance of power, it

is unlikely that any political project from the dissidents can succeed

unless it has sufficient government support and popular and participa-

tion. In theory, the MCL’s legislative agenda constitutes the basis for a

viable reformist political project. Were a coalition to emerge from

among disaffected, disengaged, and dissident stakeholders (as illus-

trated in Figure 3) it could gain traction as a political movement.

In viewing these interest groups as potential constituencies, it is

important to know what their underlying priority concerns are, and

whether they are reflected in the competing political programs of the

Cuban government and the MCL dissidents.

A Comparison of Priority Concerns: the Cuban Public and

the MCL Proposals

Is the vision embodied in the legal dissent proposals congruent with

the public’s priorities? This section reviews the priority concerns of

Figure 3. B+D=A possible coalition?

AB CD

True believers

20%-35%

Disaffected stakeholders

59%-48%

Disengaged parties

20%-16%

Active dissidents

~1%