232 The Cuban Revolution
Today: Proposals of Changes,
Scenarios, and Alternatives
Francisco López Segrera^1
I say this only to save my soul.
-Karl MarxAbstract: The new stage of the Cuban Revolution that began with the presidency of
Raúl Castro has seen consultation with the masses about what kind of socialism they
want to build, a return to some aspects of the economic reform abandoned in 2000, a
key role in the economy for the armed forces, the dismantling of certain programs of the
Battle of Ideas that have proved economically unsound, the elimination of certain sub-
sidies and free food for workers, and the reduction of the state through the fusion of
ministries and the reduction of the labor force. The success of these policies will condi-
tion what scenarios will prevail in Cuba in the future. Possible scenarios include (1)
transformation toward a twenty-first-century socialism consistent with the historical
roots of the Cuban Revolution, (2) immobility, (3) a socialist market economy such as
those of China and Vietnam, (4) collapse and implosion in the style of the Soviet Union
and the countries of the Eastern Bloc and/or internal revolt, and (5) overthrow of the
government because of a military invasion by the United States. Scenarios 1, 2, and 3
- Francisco Lopez Segrera a is a Cuban historian and the author of several books on
economics, politics, social classes, and international relations, among them Cuba: Depen-
dent Capitalism and Underdevelopment (1972) and The Cuban Revolution: proposals, scenarios and
alternatives (2010)