26 Chapter 2
1989 until 2006 (López Segrera, 1995b; 1997; 1998; 2005). The main
challenge now is building a new model of socialism in order to pre-
vent a return to dependent capitalism and neocolonial status. This will
require not only the adoption of practical policies but also a great
debate concerning the transformation of Cuban socialism (Alzugaray,
2009a; LAP, 2009).
A number of possible scenarios can be imagined, among them (1)
transformation toward a twenty-first-century socialism consistent
with the historical roots of the Cuban Revolution, (2) immobility, (3) a
socialist market economy such as those of China and Vietnam, (4) col-
lapse and implosion in the style of the Soviet Union and the countries
of the Eastern Bloc and/or internal revolt, and (5) the overthrow of
the government because of a military invasion by the United States.
The most probable of these scenarios are 1, 2, and 3, but we cannot
rule out 5. The proposals in this paper are aimed at making possible
scenario 1; if they are not adopted, I think that scenario 2 or 3 will
prevail.
The fundamental features of the twentieth-century socialism of the
former Soviet Union and the East European countries state capital-
ism, central economic planning, political authoritarianism, an egalitar-
ian collectivism that in practice fostered the development of a
bureaucracy without adequate control on the part of the masses, anti-
ecological productivism, and weak political participation. Despite
many similarities to this model, the distortions of Cuban socialism
were not so extreme as in the countries where “real socialism” failed.
Because of the historical roots of the Cuban Revolution and the char-
acteristics of its leadership. Cuban socialism did not crumble. Never-
theless, constitutional, legislative, and structural modifications will be
required for it to achieve a twenty-first-century socialism—a socialism
that is more democratic, participative, and economically efficient. The
enormous consensus supporting the Cuban leadership and the Asam-
blea Nacional del Poder Popular (National Assembly of Popular
Power) has allowed an advance toward democracy, but qualitative
changes are needed to guarantee participation in decision-making pro-