56 Chapter 2
cause of Palestine and strengthen its relations with the countries of
the Middle East.^37
The Cuban government could adopt policy alternatives that would
help to improve relations with the United States. It could deepen its
links with important economic groups in the developed countries and
all countries with which it has (or wants to have) important economic
relations, since this will create lobbies favorable to good relations with
Cuba in all these countries and thus protect the island from changes in
policy by the various parties and political classes in power. It could
speed up economic and political reforms—not because the United
States demands them but out of its own conviction—and thus facili-
tate the lobbies’ work. It could enter into an agreement of cooperation
with the EU, as Vietnam has done, with the promise of taking new
steps in the development of democracy.
I suggest that a reading of the course of history by the leaderships
and political classes and the United States could present unprece-
dented opportunities for negotiation. If social peace is not maintained
in Cuba and the economic crisis causes dramatic fractures of consen-
sus, the current line of negotiating only limited aspects such as migra-
tion could prevail. If, in contrast, social peace and a modicum of
performance in the economic sphere are maintained in Cuba without
serious fractures of consensus, the sectors of the United States that
today consider it unacceptable to negotiate with Cuba as was done
with China might be ready to agree on a policy that repeats the initial
steps of the Carter administration and goes beyond them to lift the
blockade and move toward full normalization of relations.
If the U.S. political class observed that the latter scenario prevailed,
it might be inclined to initiate a process of negotiation with Cuba,
abandoning two prejudices that have prevented the kind of negotia-
- Nevertheless, taking advantage of the 2000 Trade Sanctions Reform and Export
Enhancement Act, “more than 4.350 companies and 132 farm associations and federa-
tions, and between 2001 and 2006 159 companies representing 35 states, signed con-
tracts with Cuba involving 300 products. The contracts amounted to some US$2.28
billion” (Lutjens, 2009: 7).