The Economist - USA (2021-11-13)

The Economist November 13th 2021 Middle East & Africa 53

Iran’smilitarytactics

The new predators

U

singdronestoassassinatepeoplehas

longbeenthepreserveofthemostad­

vanced armed forces,suchasAmerica’s

andIsrael’s.ButanattemptonNovember

7thtokillIraq’sprimeminister,Mustafaal­

Kadhimi,wasa dramaticdemonstrationof

how such “precision­strike” capabilities

arespreadingtolessadvancedcountries

andeventoshadowymilitias.

Several of Mr Kadhimi’s bodyguards

werehurtwhenatleastonedronehithis

homein the protected “Green Zone”of

Baghdad.Otherdronesmayhavebeenshot

down.The primeministersurvived, ap­

pearingsoonafterwardsontelevisionto

denouncethe“cowardly”attack.

Thehitwassorudimentary,apparently

involvingquadcopters(ofthesortthatcan

beboughtbyhobbyists)riggedwithsmall

bombs,thatitcouldhavebeenstagedby

anyoneofIraq’smanyarmedgroups.“If

youcandeliverpizzawitha drone,youcan

dropa grenade,”saysJamesLewisofthe

Centre for Strategic and International

Studies,anAmericanthink­tank.

YetsuspicionimmediatelyfellonIran

anditsproxies,fortworeasons.Thefirstis

thatFatah,thepoliticalarmofShiamili­

tiasalignedwithIran,isfuriousatlosing

most of its seats in Iraq’s election last

month.Loyalistshavestagedprotestsand

onNovember5thattemptedtoburstinto

theGreenZone.Thefollowingday,atthe

funeralofaprotester killedby security

forces, militia leaders vowed revenge

againstMrKadhimi.

ThesecondreasonisthatIranhasbe­

come the most assiduous provider of

drone technology to its proxies and

friends,notonlyinIraqbutalsoinLeba­

non, Yemen, Syria and the Gaza Strip.

Thesearenotthesophisticatedmachines

operatedbyAmerica,suchasthePredator

andthe Reaper. Instead, theyare often

“craptastic”knock­offs,madewithcom­

merciallyavailablecomponents,explains

AaronSteinoftheForeignPolicyResearch

Institute, another American think­tank.

ButIranisalsomakingimprovements,not

least by reverse­engineering captured

drones,suchasAmerica’sstealthyrq­170.

Likeunmannedaerialvehicles(uavs)

fromadvancedcountries,Iranianonesare

usedforbothsurveillanceandstrikes.Un­

likethem,Iranianuavs donotusuallycar­

ry precision­guided munitions. Instead

thedroneitselfistheguidedbomb,flying

intothetargetanddetonatinglikea robot­

ic kamikaze. Iran dispenses with the satel­

lite links that allow Western forces to con­

trol  drones  from  the  other  side  of  the

world.  Its  uavs  are  typically  operated  by

line­of­sight  radio  control,  or  can  guide

themselveswithgpstechnology  used  in

smartphonesandautomotive satnavs.

Iranachievesgreat  range  by  distribut­

inguavs (orthetechniques to make them)

toitsalliesacrossthe Middle East, thereby

threatening targets  from  the  Mediterra­

neantothePersian Gulf. The drones are of­

tendeliveredinkits and assembled locally

withlittlehelpfrom  Iran,  notes  Mr  Stein.

“Thesedronesallow Iran to orchestrate at­

tacks whilemaintaining  deniability  and

ambiguity,”saysan Israeli military official.

Thesimplicitybelies the threat that the

dronespose.Lastmonth an American out­

postinTanfinSyria  was  hit  by  five  gps­

guided drones. Nobody  was  hurt,  but

Americanofficials  later  blamed  Iran  and

theBidenadministration  imposed  sanc­

tionsonpeopleand firms associated with

the drone programme.  In  2019  several

dronesstruckSaudi Arabia’s oil facilities at

Abqaiq and Khurais,  interrupting  about

halfofthecountry’s oil output for a while.

TheHouthimilitia in Yemen, which is al­

liedtoIranandhas been fighting against a

Saudi­ledcoalition since 2015, claimed re­

sponsibility.ButWestern military sources

believethedrones  were  dispatched  from

Iraq,orperhapseven from Iran.

Israelpioneered  the  use  of  disposable,

self­destructingdrones to destroy Arab air

defences in the 1970s  and  1980s.  Now,

though,itmustward  off  the  drones  of  its

enemies.It hasresorted to everything from

F­16fighterstothe  Iron  Dome  anti­rocket

system,butislooking for a better defence.

SoisAmerica.“We no longer have air supe­

riority,” laments an  American military

source,referringto the Middle East.“Amer­

icansgotusedtoowning the skies.”n

J ERUSALEM AND WASHINGTON, DC

Why drones are becoming Iran’s

weapon of choice

Up to no good

Congo’smilitias

No farewell

to arms

A

t the entrance to a base for ex­rebels

in Mubambiro, a town in the east of the

Democratic  Republic  of  Congo,  a  young

man  paces  to  and  fro,  clasping  a  wooden

replica  of  an  ak­47,  the  rifle  of  choice  for

guerrillas  everywhere.  “I  am  the  guard

here,”  he  explains,  “And  I  am  used  to  hav­

ing a gun, it makes me feel comfortable.” 

Shukuru Bijadunia, aged 23, handed his

real  rifle  to  the  Congolese  authorities  in

2018 and has languished in a dismal camp

ever since. He sleeps without a mattress in

a shabby tent with other former rebels. Last

year no food was provided at the camp for

nine  months.  “I  sleep  badly,  I  barely  eat

and  there  is  no  medicine  when  we  get

sick,”  says  Mr  Bijadunia.  “Life  in  the  bush

was  better.”  Hundreds  of  other  former  re­

bels  agree.  At  its  peak,  the  camp  hosted

more than 1,700 fighters, from 30 different

militias, who had surrendered. Today, few­

er  than  400  of  them  remain.  Some  have

gone back into the bush to rejoin their old

armed groups. Others have been recruited

into new ones.

Conflict  has  ravaged  eastern  Congo  for

over 25 years. More than 120 armed groups

hide  in  the  forests.  Many  are  reportedly

backed  by  Uganda  and  Rwanda,  though

both countries deny this. Militias that had

surrendered or disbanded are regrouping,

and  new  ones  are  forming.  Some  groups

say they want to overthrow the president,

Félix Tshisekedi, though he is usually more

than 1,000km (621 miles) away in the capi­

tal, Kinshasa. In the meantime, many prey

on local civilians or smuggle minerals. 

On November 7th gunmen attacked two

villages  near  the  Ugandan  border,  killing

Congolese  soldiers.  The  attackers  are  be­

lieved to be members of the m23, a militia

backed  by  Rwanda  that  in  2012  captured

Goma, a city of 2m people, before being de­

feated and forced to surrender a year later

by unforces and the Congolese army. Now

it seems to have reassembled. The Ameri­

can  embassy  recently  warned  its  citizens

in  Goma  to  stay  at  home,  fearing  another

attack on the city.

Also  this  month,  members  of  a  new

group  calling  for  Mr  Tshisekedi  to  step

down  stormed  the  city  of  Bukavu.  The  at­

tacks  highlight  the  president’s  failure  to

make  good  on  one  of  his  main  campaign

promises  before  he  came  to  power  in

2019—to pacify the eastern parts of Congo.

On his first presidential visit to the embat­

tled province of North Kivu, Mr Tshisekedi

MUBAMBIRO

The president does not know what to

do with rebels who surrender