The Economist - USA (2021-11-13)

The Economist November 13th 2021 Europe 57

abroad.Heisangryatthecountriesshel­

teringthem,chieflyPolandandLithuania,

andattheentireeuforthesanctionsit has

imposedonhisregime.Theambitionof

thosesanctionswasscaledbackthanksto

lobbyingbyaffectedindustries,fromAus­

trianbanksto Lithuanianrailways.Now

thepoliticalwilltodeterMrLukashenko

hashardened.Theeuishintingatfresh

sanctions,includingonBelavia,possibly

assoonasnextweek.Thehithertohesitant

Irish government, whose firms lease

planestotheairline,hascomeonboard.

Thatdoesnotmeanthatkeepingmi­

grantsofftheroutetoBelaruswillbeeasy.

Theeuwantstoinstallofficialsatairports

acrosstheMiddleEasttoprodIraqipas­

sengers with awkward questions before

theyembark.Butthatwilltaketime.Ange­

laMerkel,Germany’soutgoingchancellor,

hasaskedRussia’spresident,VladimirPu­

tin,totalkMrLukashenkooutofhisplot­

ting.Herchancesofsuccessseemslim.

Polandseesdeterrenceasthebestway

tostemtheinflux,andsoisdetermined

nottoadmitanyofthemigrantsgathering

atitsgates.Itspopulistgovernmenthas

wavedawayoffersofhelpfromFrontex,

theeu’s borderagency.A camphassprung

upontheBelarusianside,anda lengthy

battleofwillsislikely.Meanwhile,themi­

grantsareindanger.Afreezingwinterap­

proaches.AndMrLukashenkoiswillingto

makepeoplesuffer,ifthetelevisionfoot­

agecausesproblemsinEurope.n

T

urkeyhasdeportedSyrianrefugees

before.Someweresentbacktotheir

war­scorchedhomelandforfailingto

registerwiththeauthoritiesorfor

minorcrimes.Somesaytheywere

trickedorforcedintosigningvoluntary

returnforms.Butnonethoughtthey

wouldbethrownoutforeatingba­

nanas.Untilnow.

InOctoberthegovernmentsaidit

woulddeportsevenSyriansforsharing

“provocative”videosonsocialmedia,

whichshowedtheyoungrefugees

staringintotheirphonesandmunch­

ingyellowfruit.Thiswasinresponseto

aninterviewwitha Turkishmanwho

hadblamedSyriansfordrivinguprents

andcomplainedthattheycouldafford

bananas,whichhecouldnot.

Thebanana­eatersseemedtobe

mockingprejudiceagainstrefugees.

Butofficials accusedthemofmocking

theneedy.Andthatwasnottheendof

it.Turkishpolicearresteda Syrian

journalistwhohadmadelightofthe

uproarina videothatshowedhim

nervouslybuyingbananasfroma groc­

er,thenhidingthemunderhissweater.

(HewasreleasedonNovember8th.)

Some3.7mSyrianshavemadeTur­

keytheirhomeoverthepastdecade.

TheTurkishwelcome,oncegenerous,

hasbecomegrudging.Astheliraplum­

metsandinflationtests20%,therefu­

geesarebecominga targetoffrustra­

tion.Withitspollnumbersshrinking

PresidentRecepTayyipErdogan’sgov­

ernmentappearskeentoprovethatit

canacttough.Evenoversoftfruit.

SyriansinTurkey

Going bananas

I STANBUL

Afruity joke offends officials 

Don’t tell the president 

CoronavirusineasternEurope

The arc of

susceptibility

O

n november 6th teams of medics

dressed  in  full  protective  gear  packed

equipment  into  a  Romanian  military

transport  plane  before  pushing  beds  with

two  severely  ill  covid­19  patients  up  the

ramp and inside. As the propellers began to

whirr, the back door slowly closed and the

plane lumbered up the runway heading for

Denmark.  “There  is  no  secret,”  says  Raed

Arafat,  who  is  co­ordinating  Romania’s

fight against covid: the country’s hospitals

are  “overflowing”.  About  90  patients  have

been  evacuated  to  Denmark,  Germany,

Hungary and elsewhere. Teams of doctors

are  also  flying  in  from  all  over  Europe  to

help their beleaguered colleagues. 

Across  Europe  the  numbers  of  people

infected  with  the  highly  contagious  Delta

variant are rising, and many governments

are  contemplating  or  imposing  new  re­

strictions. But this wave is affecting some

countries  far  more  than  others.  From  the

Balkans to the Baltics an arc of susceptibil­

ity has emerged, encompassing a swathe of

countries with low vaccination rates. 

In  the  past  few  weeks  the  death  rate

from  covid­19  has  hit  record  highs  in  Bul­

garia,  Latvia  and  Romania.  In  the  week  to

November  8th  there  were  22.8  confirmed

deaths in Bulgaria for every million people.

In Romania the figure was 21.8 and in Lat­

via 18.8. Yet for the eu as a whole it was only

3.0. The number of cases is at last dropping

in those three badly­hit countries, but it is

now soaring in Croatia, Estonia, Lithuania,

Slovenia and Ukraine. 

All of the countries being clobbered are

at the low end of the scale when it comes to

vaccination.  Only  23%  of  Bulgarians  and

34%  of  Romanians  have  been  double­

jabbed. In Latvia the proportion is 57%, but

it was much lower a month ago, when the

current  wave  took  hold.  In  the  euas  a

whole, 66% are double­vaccinated. 

Low vaccination rates are not the result

of  a  lack  of  vaccines.  The  countries  of  the

arc have ample supply, but also loud anti­

vaxxers. Distrust of government and medi­

cal  staff  is  high.  A  Eurobarometer  survey

conducted earlier this year found that only

22% of Bulgarians and Croats, 26% of Latvi­

ans  and  31%  of  Romanians  tend  to  trust

their  governments.  When  asked  if  they

trusted  medical  staff,  34%  of  Bulgarians

said they did not, along with 32% of Croats,

31% of Latvians and 40% of Romanians. 

It  is  ironic  that  relatively  low  levels  of

infection in the summer seem to have con­

tributed  to  the  scale  of  current  outbreaks.

Those  with  doubts  about  the  vaccine  saw

little urgency in getting it, which left them

vulnerable  when  the  Delta  variant  hit.  Of

those now in hospital, says Dr Arafat, 92%

are unvaccinated. The true share could be

higher, as unknown numbers have bought

fake  vaccination  certificates.  He  angrily

denounces  anti­vax  disinformation,

which  is  often  propagated  by  rogue  doc­

tors, Orthodox priests and far­right nation­

alists, with the help of “Dr Facebook”. 

Inga Springe, a journalist with Re:Balti­

ca,  a  news  website,  says  that  in  Latvia

prominent doctors have given ambiguous

signals about vaccinations and some poli­

ticians are promoting themselves via anti­

vax sites. Bulgaria goes to the polls on No­

vember  14th  for  the  third  time  this  year,

and  politicians  there  may  fear  alienating

anti­vax voters. 

According to Oana Popescu, director of

GlobalFocus,  a  Romanian  think­tank,  Ro­

manians’  lack  of  enthusiasm  for  getting

vaccinated  is  a  direct  result  of  what  they

perceive to be decades of neglect by the au­

thorities. “When the government suddenly

seems to care for you for the first time in 30

years,  of  courseyoubecome  suspicious!”

she explains. Alas,it isnot just Romanians

who feel that way.n

Countries with poor vaccination rates

are suffering dreadfully