The recovery is expected to be supported by a
strong holiday shopping season, Bain said.
“We are pretty positive, even if the growth rate in
particular in China has been slowing down since
mid-August. But they are still very strong,” said
Claudia D’Arpizio, the Bain partner who headed
up the study. “There has been a sharp V-shaped
recovery for personal goods.”
The larger global luxury market, which extends to
high-end travel, dining, fine art and furnishings,
continues to lag 2019 levels, Bain said.
Consumers have shifted spending to high-quality
furnishings, as many have been spending time
at home instead of globe-trotting, while travel
restrictions have been especially hard on luxury
hotels, fine dining and cruises, all sectors that have
yet to fully recover.
Global luxury comprehensively is expected to
reach 1.1 trillion euros ($1.26 trillion) this year,
which is about 10% below 2019 levels. The
hardest-hit sector is luxury cruises, with spending
down 80% from pre-pandemic levels and reduced
even from 2020. Still, strong bookings for 2022
offer “glimmers of hope,” D’Arpizio said.
With international tourism still hampered,
consumers have started picking up their new
fashion trends at home, instead of fueling duty-
free sales abroad.
U.S. consumers have at least temporarily
supplanted the Chinese as the biggest
spenders, accounting for one-third of all sales
this year, compared with about 23% by Chinese
shoppers, who were on par with Europeans.
That trend is expected to invert by 2025,
with nearly half of all spending by Chinese