The Economist - UK (2021-11-20)

66 International TheEconomistNovember20th 2021

was  that,  even  though  the  necessary  cuts

would be almost impossible or cripplingly

expensive  to  meet,  the  1.5°C  goal  should

not  be  abandoned  because  each  step  to­

wards  it  is  beneficial.  Every  tenth  of  a  de­

gree of warming has consequences for hu­

man  wellbeing  and  carries  large  financial

costs.  Extreme  weather  brought  about  by

global  warming  has  proliferated  over  the

past  decade.  Counterfactual  climate  mod­

elling  has  shown  it  contributing  to  all

manner  of  calamities  from  fires  to  floods

and deadly heatwaves. 

Show me the money

Another focus in Glasgow was the need for

more  lending  to  help  poor  countries  shift

out of fossil energy, to build societies that

are better adapted to the impacts of climate

change,  and  to  recover  from  the  damage

caused  by  extreme­weather  events.  Poor

countries  resent  that  they  were  promised

$100bn  annually  by  2020  to  deal  with  the

first  two  needs,  yet  only  $80bn  a  year  has

materialised. Eventual costs are likely to be

in the trillions. Yet the only material con­

cession  that  was  made  related  to  funding

for  adaptation, which  was  supposed  to

have made up half of the $100bn but so far

has  only  amounted  to  some  $20bn.  Rich

countries  pledged  in  Glasgow  to  at  least

double the amount given by 2025. 

The talks were marked by a perceptible

change in the rhetoric around such finan­

cial assistance. In the 2010s, poor countries

framed the $100bn figure partly as a show

of solidarity from rich countries and partly

as a charitable grant. The West had grown

wealthy  by  burning  fossil  fuels,  the  argu­

ment ran, and so should help clean up the

mess. In addition to this moral claim to as­

sistance, another justification came to the

fore in Glasgow. It frames the cash as an es­

sential  tool  for  energy  transition,  rather

than  as  a  form  of  aid.  Without  it,  poor

countries said they could not decarbonise,

thus jeopardising the Paris goals—so more

cash will need to be found. 

One model for doing this will be closely

watched  over  the  coming  year.  America,

Britain,  the  eu,  France  and  Germany  have

agreed to raise a pot of $8.5bn from a mix of

public and private sources for South Africa.

In exchange it has agreed to decarbonise its

electricity  supply,  currently  derived  al­

most  entirely  from  coal,  while  protecting

the livelihoods of the 120,000 people who

work in the industry. If the results between

now and cop27 are promising, it could be­

come a model for other countries. 

A host of other measures, taken togeth­

er,couldbeginto narrowtheemissions

gap.Morecountriescouldsignuptothe

“sectoralpledges”,asthecoalitionsofthe

willingareknowninclimatejargon,orto

adopttheirowngoalsif,likeChina,they

arereluctanttojointhemultilateraldeals.

Aspartofitsrenewedclimatecollabora­

tionwithAmericaannouncedinGlasgow,

Chinasaid itwoulddrawupanational

strategyforcurbingmethaneemissions.

Thatisimportant,sinceitspewsoutmore

ofthestuffthananyothercountry,anddid

notsignuptothesectoralpledge.JohnKer­

ry,America’scop 26 envoy,suggestedthe

Chineseplanonmethanewouldbeun­

veiledbeforecop27.

catestimatesthatifallcountrieswere

tosignontoallfoursectoralpledgeson

methane, coal, cars and forests, the

17bn­20bntonnesinemissionscutsneed­

edtoreach1.5°Ccouldbenarrowedbya

further6bn­9bntonnes.Thatislargebut

hypotheticalsincetheforestpledge,espe­

cially,isquestionable,giventhefailureof

previouseffortstocurbdeforestationand

thefactthatIndonesia,oneoftheworst

culprits,hasalreadywithdrawnsupport.

Voluntarycarbon markets could also

contribute to emissions reductions, but

onlyiftheirstandardsareimproved.Al­

thoughthevolumestradedarenotyetin

thebillionsoftonnes,demandhasgrown

andisreceivinga boostfromtheincreas­

ingnumberofprivatecompanieswithcli­

matetargets.Theoretically,thesemarkets

couldhelpsteerprivatefundstowardsthe

most effective carbon­reducing projects

and accelerate decarbonisation. But the

markets are poorly regulated and stan­

dardsarevariable.

Otheravenuestonarrowtheemissions

gapto1.5°Cincludefinancialincentivesfor

emergingeconomiestocutemissionswith

a mix ofpublic and private funds, the

threatofcarbonborder­adjustmentmech­

anismsthatwill taxCO 2 ­heavyimports,

andmoretransparencyandaccountability

intheprivatesector.Currently,thereare

hundredsofdifferent standardsforcor­

poratedisclosureofenvironmental,social

and governance (esg) data. Firms can

thereforecherry­pickflattering numbers

andinvestorsstruggletocomparediffer­

entcompanies.

Regulatorscanalsoplaya partincor­

poratetransparency.AntónioGuterres,the

secretary­generaloftheun, intendstoset

upa body to examinenet­zero pledges

madebycompaniesandtodevelopstan­

dards. Rishi Sunak, Britain’s chancellor,

saidthatthecountrywill“strengthenre­

quirements’‘from2023—butnotyetmake

itmandatory—forallBritishfinancialin­

stitutionsandallcompanieslistedonBrit­

ishstockmarketstopublishplansexplain­

inghowtheywilldecarboniseoperations,

lending and investment. However, all

theseregulatorymeasureswilltakeyears

tohavemucheffect.

Thenext 12 monthswillbemarkedbya

constantdrumbeattokeepupthepressure

onclimatechange.InAprilthe15thunbio­

diversitysummitwillreleasenewgoalsfor

protectingecosystems.Someofthesewill

seektofightclimatechangeaswellbyin­

creasing the volumes of CO 2 that are

soakedupbyvegetationandtheoceans.In

JunetheSwedishgovernmentwillhosta

unconferencetomarkthe50thanniversa­

ryofthefirstEarthsummit.Throughout

theyear,aun­sanctionedglobalstock­tak­

ingofprogresstowards theParisagree­

mentgoalswillgetunderway.Itsconclu­

sionsareduein2023.

And theIntergovernmental Panel on

ClimateChangewillpublishnotonebut

threereports,thefirstofwhichwillalmost

certainlyconcludethattheimpactsofcli­

matechangearealreadyatthehighendof

whatpreviousreportshadanticipated,and

thatfutureeffects,evenifwarmingcould

belimitedto1.5°C, arelikelytobeworse

thanpreviouslythoughtinrichandpoor

countriesalike.

Thatwillalsobea focusofthenewcop

presidency.ThehandoverbeganinGlas­

gow,whereEgyptianleadershintedthat

adaptationandresiliencewouldbehigh

ontheagendaforcop27.Sharmel­Sheikh,

too,islikelyto seefrustration dobattle

withcelebration.n

A long way to go

Source:ClimateActionTracker *Includingland-usechangeandforestry †NationallyDeterminedContributions

Global greenhouse-gas emissions, gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent

20

30

40

50

60

20

30

40

50

60

1990 95 2000 05 10 15 20 25 30

Historical*

Pledges&targets

Tostay

below1.5°C

FORECAST

Emissions gap in 2030 for 1.5°C

Before

COP26

Nov 2021

COP26update

Paris agreement

New gap

1-20

Old gap

23-2

Updated

NDCs† Sectoral

initiatives

CorrectionIn our leader on the subject of assisted

dying last week we stated that there is a cooling­off

period of ten days for patients who choose an

assisted death in Canada. There is, in fact, an

assessment period of 90 days for those whose death

is not “reasonably foreseeable”. Sorry.