NOVEMBER 26, 2021MILITARY“They’re relatively small, inexpensive drones, but they
kind of cross that boundary between a drone and
guided missile,” the U.S. military offi cial says.
That point is echoed by a security offi cial from
Israel, a country that produced some of the loi-
tering munitions employed by Azerbaijani forces
and which are now a potential concern for Iran as
tensions simmer between the neighbors. “This tool
today is so easy, and small drones, you just really
order them in and you’ve got yourself like a guided
precision missile,” the Israeli security offi cial tells
Newsweek. The Israeli official says that even with
their current destructive potential, the munitions at-
tached to UAS today are in their relative infancy. No
single drone could yet replicate a 9/11-style attack.
Their potential, however, is already rapidly growing.
“They are becoming much more accurate in their
capabilities of navigation,” the offi cial says. “I thinkwhere we will be seeing things is that the amount
of explosives will get bigger now.”
Small commercial UAS have a unique advantage
over traditional aircraft and missile platforms:
They have no launch signature generated by a fi -
ery blast but instead take off quietly, making them
far more diffi cult to detect. Used in large numbers,
known as a swarm, they’re also harder to intercept.
“If you need to intercept a dozen [UAS], an F-16 pay-
load, if it’s only doing air-to-air, would be about
six different air-to-air missiles,” the Israeli offi cial
says. “So that already means that you need a few
airplanes, and you need the time if you’re looking
at interception.”
Israel was among the fi rst nations to refi ne war-
time drone technology, and it continues to fi eld
various platforms for covert missions. But its ri-
vals have also demonstrated early prowess for such
technology, as proven by the Lebanese Hezbollah,
the Palestinian Hamas and their supporter, Iran.
Iran has developed an extensive arsenal of
drones, including suicide drones capable of fl ying
further than 1,240 miles. Israel and the U.S. have
both accused Iran of directly supplying UAS tech-
nology to militias across the Middle East, an allega-
tion denied by the Islamic Republic.
“I think Tehran has its own independent defense
program based on its defense needs and can de-
fi ne its efforts to counter the threats by strength-
ening its defense capabilities,” an Iranian offi cial
tells Newsweek. China has also excelled in UAS tech-
nology and Russia has developed high-end systems
of its own as well.
The Israeli security official identifies another
trend that could prove deeply problematic to the
safety of the Middle East and beyond, a trend linked
to the U.S.’ withdrawal from Afghanistan. “We do see
a rise in what potentially could come again with the
terror activities and the kind of backing that some
of the terror organizations feel stronger and maybe
even more courageous,” the Israeli security offi cial
says. “This tool of drones can defi nitely be something
that we might be seeing more.”‘Highly Effective Delivery Systems’
one man who has written and spoken exten-
sively on the potential impact of drones in the
wrong hands is Zachary Kallenborn. Kallenborn is
a policy fellow at George Mason University’s ScharPOSSIBILITIES
Counterclockwise from
below: Repairing a drone;
weapons analyst Zachary
Kallenborn; damage
caused by drones in
a 2018 assassination
attempt in Caracas on
Venezuelan president
Nicolás Maduro; and
a drone display at the
opening ceremony of the
2020 Tokyo Olympics.
GETTY;^COURTESYO
F^ ZACHARYKALL
ENBORN