16 2GM Thursday November 25 2021 | the times
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Britain is nearer the end of its pandemic
than any other country in Europe, a
study has suggested.
Thanks to a combination of infection
and vaccinations, England’s high level
of immunity means it has the least
potential for a devastating wave, scien-
UK closest in Europe to end
of pandemic, say scientists
tists calculated. If all restrictions and
vaccinations were to stop today, the
study estimated, England would have
10,000 more deaths, compared with
114,000 in Germany and 16,000 in
Greece, which is a sixth the UK’s size.
At present in the UK there are about
1,000 deaths from Covid-19 a week,
approximately 15,000 of which havebeen since “freedom day” in July. The
findings, which made some simplifying
assumptions about immune protection,
were based on a calculation of the
distribution of immunity in different
age groups and countries.
Of the 19 countries in the study, the
researchers did not look at Scotland,
Wales or Northern Ireland but saidTom Whipple Science Editor Covid in Europe
JJASON0246810Daily deaths per million,
seven-day rolling averageGreece
Austria
Germany
Netherlands
UK
Italy
FranceSource: Our World in DataInjections
T
he good news is that,
according to
epidemiologists, of all the
countries in Europe
England is closest to the
end of its pandemic. The bad news is
the reason why: it has suffered more
infections and deaths than other
countries (Tom Whipple writes).
The estimate from the London
School of Hygiene and Tropical
Medicine does not pretend to be
anything other than a sophisticated
back-of-the-envelope calculation. If
we stopped intervening now, it asks,
how bad would it get before the
pandemic ends?
The first and most obvious flaw is
that we won’t stop intervening.
Britain is giving boosters faster than
almost any other European country.
The second flaw is that the
pandemic won’t end, at least not in
the sense envisioned in this study. To
answer the question it posed — how
many deaths are left? — it had to
make the total number of infections
finite. To do this, it had to assume
that immunity did not wane. Alas, it
does wane, which is why infections
are with us in perpetuity. Its 10,
upper limit for more English deaths
could well prove optimistic.
This study is best viewed as a
progress report. It is a reminder ofAnalysis
German army
under orders
to be jabbed
they expected broadly similar figures to
those for England.
Lloyd Chapman, from the London
School of Hygiene and Tropical Medi-
cine, said that the relatively good prog-
nosis for the UK was not cause for unal-
loyed congratulations. “In a sense we
paid a very high price for being further
along a path towards having a high level
of immunity in the population,” he said.
“Whether that was the right strategy or
not, I think in a way only time will tell.”
Since the early summer the UK has
had a high level of infection and over
the course of the pandemic, it has had
about 2,100 deaths per million people,
similar to Belgium and Italy but more
than the European average and almost
double that of Germany.
That was not the only reason why
England appeared to have fewer
“potential deaths” left. Chapman said:
“England has done a good job of getting
higher vaccination coverage in the eld-
est age groups.” In Britain, the effect of
boosters can now be seen clearly in old-
er age groups. With almost 16 million
boosters or third doses already distrib-
uted, more than almost any other
European country, cases among the
over-70s are dropping.
According to the study, infection-
acquired immunity ranged from 3 per
cent in Norway to 70 per cent in Roma-
nia. Vaccine coverage was highest in
Portugal and lowest in Slovakia and
Romania. It estimated that Romania
could yet have 70,000 more deaths.
Romania showed one of the prob-
lems with gaining immunity through
infection, Chapman said. “The story of
the pandemic is that the really high
incidence of infections has been in
younger age groups, and yet the impact
has really been seen in the eldest age
group, so despite very high levels of
natural immunity, there are still
enough susceptible people through
lack of vaccination.”
Across Europe the study estimated
that there was still the potential for
300,000 further deaths and 900,
more hospital admissions. To come up
with the figure, they assumed that
immunity was fixed, and that the full
remaining potential of the pandemic
was then experienced by each country.
Chapman said that this was an over-
simplification but it gave countries a
good idea of the potential that
remained for poor outcomes — and
how far they were from a state where
the virus could be endemic.
Yesterday the boss of the NHS said
that handymen will be sent to homes to
install handrails to prevent falls, clean-
ing mould to aid people with breathing
problems as well as sealing draughts to
reduce pressure on the health service.
Amanda Pritchard, NHS England’s
chief executive, wants “urgent commu-
nity response” teams in place by June.News News xyxyxyxyxyxyCoronavirus