The Times - UK (2021-11-25)

the times | Thursday November 25 2021 17

News

The UK is suffering a wave of excess

deaths not fully explained by the coro-

navirus, according to official statistics.

There were 12,050 deaths registered

in England and Wales in the seven days

to November 12, data from the Office

for National Statistics (ONS) shows.

That was 1,719 more than the five-year

average for 2015-19, or a 16.6 per cent

increase.

Jason Oke, a senior statistician at Ox-

ford University, said: “The non-Covid

excess has been running about as high

at any point in the last ten years [for the

time of year] since about mid-July.”

Every week since the week ending

July 9 has had death numbers above

normal, and only in the week ending

September 3 were coronavirus deaths a

higher figure than the total excess.

Similar trends are visible in data from

Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Oke added: “I do think this needs to

be set against the fact that for the first

half of the year we had negative non-

Covid excess deaths, and far lower than

at any point in the previous ten years.”

While the ONS data does not offer

detail on the causes of excess deaths,

data from Scotland suggests no un-

usually high numbers from illnesses

such as cancer, heart disease or flu.

Analysis by the Institute and Faculty

and infections put England on top

How Britain compares

Percentage of population who have

received at least one vaccine dose

(total doses administered in brackets)

UAE 98.1% (21.5m)

Portugal 89% (16.3m)

Malta 84.3% (937k)

Spain 81.8% (75.2m)

Canada 79.3% (60.1m)

Italy 77.9% (94.1m)

Ireland 77.3% (8m)

Australia 77% (38.7m)

Brazil 75.9% (298m)

France 76.6% (103m)

UK 74.8% (113m)

Sweden 71.8% (15.4m)

Daily

(Nov 23)

First dose

26,

Boosters

(daily)

365,

First dose

50.8m

Second

46.2m

Second

22,

Total

16,004,

People

vaccinated

in UK

Source: Our World in Data (latest figures available) and gov.uk.

Note: Selected countries. Figures as of 6pm yesterday

How many have died?

Yesterday, there were 149 deaths reported,

bringing the total number of deaths in the

past seven days to 926. The rolling

average number of daily deaths is 132.3,

down from 146 a day a week ago

2020/

0

10,

5,

20,

15,

Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct

Deaths

0

500

1,

1,

Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct

Seven-day

average

How does 2021 compare?

There were 12,050 deaths from all causes

recorded in England and Wales in the week

to November 12, of which the coronavirus

accounted for 8.5 per cent. The number of

weekly deaths was 1,719 higher than the

five-year average for the same time of year

Five-year

average

2020/

non-Covid

The national picture

How many people have Covid-19?

There were 43,676 new cases reported

yesterday, bringing the total so far to

9,974,843 or 149.3 for every 1,000 people

Daily

cases

11.1% increase from seven days ago

(based on seven-day moving

average)

Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct^0

20,

40,

Seven-day 60,

average

National

R number

0.8 to 1

Hospital admissions

0

2,

4,

Oct Jan AprJul Oct

Seven-day

average

How many are in hospital?

There are 7, 8 74 patients in hospital being

treated. 919 patients are on ventilators.

An additional 722 patients have been

admitted, down 11.6 per cent in the seven

days to November 20 when this data

was last updated

how some countries have been

better at controlling infection than

others, and of how unequal vaccine

access has been.

It is also a hint for each country,

going into winter, about how long

the Covid war footing will persist

before an accommodation is

reached with the virus. Oddly,

Britain’s position at the head of the

pack comes from a mix of

competence and incompetence: high

infections and high vaccinations.

The country with the highest

proportion of people with at least

one dose of vaccine is Portugal, and

in the worst case it can expect 37

deaths per 100,000. The country

with the most infections per head is

Romania, yet it faces 356 deaths per

100,000. The model, then, implies

that although infections can be a

way of filling in the gaps, they are

no substitute for the injections.

Global cases

258,794,

Global deaths

5,166,

Countries reporting most deaths

US

Brazil

India

Mexico

Russia

Peru

UK

Indonesia

Italy

Iran

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

Most new cases

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

US

Germany

UK

Vietnam

Russia

France

Turkey

Netherlands

Poland

South Africa

World update

Deaths per million population

( 16 )

( 13 )

( 7 )

( 10 )

( 14 )

( 5 )

( 40 )

( 24 )

( 11 )

( 6 )

( 4 )

( 9 )

1, 234

1 ,

1 , 431

1 ,36 7

1 ,

1 , 523

797

1 ,0 48

1 ,

1 , 460

1 , 555

1 , 375

Rank Now Jan 31

6,

3,

3,

3,

3,

3,

2,

2,

2,

2,

2,

1,

Peru

Bulgaria

Bosnia & H.

N. Macedonia

Hungary

Czech Rep

Georgia

Brazil

US

Italy

UK

Spain

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

17

22

25

29

Data supplied by Johns Hopkins University. US data

fluctuates because of irregular reporting by different

states. Figures as of 6pm yesterday. Sources: UK

government, Our World in Data, selected countries

773,

613,

466,

292,

261,

200,

144,

143,

133,

129,

92,

68,

43,

39,

32,

30,

28,

23,

19,

18,

G

ermany will order all

183,000 of its armed

forces personnel to get

vaccinated in a first step

towards widespread

compulsory immunisation (Oliver

Moody and Charles Bremner write).

Pressure is building on the

government to follow Austria and

require all adults to get the jab as

the fourth wave threatens to push

the death toll past 100,000, sparking

calls for a nationwide lockdown.

The worst-hit states in the south

and east have activated a plan to

transfer hospital patients to other

areas, where there is spare capacity.

Yesterday morning the authorities

recorded another 66,884 new cases

and 335 deaths as the testing system

struggled to cope. The seven-day

incidence is at an all-time high of

404 cases per 100,000 people.

The World Health Organisation

said coronavirus was the leading

cause of death in Europe, with an

extra 700,000 predicted by March.

Slovakia, the Czech Republic and

Hungary reported highs in daily

infections as winter sets in and

people meet indoors.

France is to announce the return

of social distancing and further

measures penalising the unjabbed.

Olivier Véran, the health minister,

will outline the steps decided at a

special cabinet meeting chaired by

President Macron after a rise to

20,000 cases a day.

Italy is finalising details of a

“super green pass” for the jabbed,

which could further restrict access

to cinemas and theatres. But it is

understood the rules would still

allow unvaccinated people to go to

workplaces if they tested negative.

In Germany, the fourth wave is

largely the result of high infection

rates among the 32 per cent of the

population not double vaccinated.

This has led to a debate about

whether the state should compel

certain groups to get immunised, a

possibility that Angela Merkel, 67,

had regarded as unthinkable.

The German military became the

first public institution in the country

to draw up a blanket vaccine

mandate. About 45,000 troops are

unvaccinated and about 1,000 new

cases a day are being registered.

Those who refuse will face

“disciplinary measures”, up to and

including dismissal.

The incoming coalition under

Olaf Scholz is discussing whether to

subject hospital and care staff to

similar rules, as France has done.

There is growing support for a

blanket vaccine mandate. This

would be modelled on the rules

Austria plans to introduce, under

which refuseniks could be fined

€3,600. But Michael Theurer, a Free

Democratic party MP, said such a

move would be “unconstitutional”.

The European Centre for Disease

Prevention and Control has urged

boosters for all adults.

A Christmas

market was held

in Cologne despite

Germany closing

in on 100,

Covid deaths

Wave of excess deaths

not explained by Covid

Kat Lay Health Editor of Actuaries suggests that official statis-

tics might overstate the issue because

they do not take into account an ageing

population, which means the number

of deaths would be expected to rise.

However, campaign groups say the

high numbers of non-Covid deaths

could reflect people putting off getting

care during the pandemic, or reflect

overwhelmed health services finding it

hard to provide timely treatment.

Deaths in people’s own homes are

about 30 per cent higher than before

the pandemic. Paul Hunter, professor

in medicine at the University of East

Anglia, told the Financial Times that the

higher numbers might reflect the fact

that “people who should be going into

hospital are deciding against it because

they’re worried about Covid or they’re

trying to get into hospital and then

waiting too long for ambulances”.

6 Thousands more people will die from

lung cancer because of the pandemic,

experts fear. Estimates by the UK Lung

Cancer Coalition suggest that delays in

diagnosis may lead to a drop in patients

surviving five years after diagnosis,

from 17.6 per cent to 12.3 per cent. That

would mean more than 2,500 addition-

al deaths, it said.

“Covid-19 has had a devastating im-

pact on early diagnosis of lung cancer,”

said Professor Robert Rintoul of the

coalition’s clinical advisory group.

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