The Sunday Times - UK (2021-11-28)

The Sunday Times November 28, 2021 13

The scale of the threat
Now that it is here, how serious is it? In
truth, it is too early to tell. Worries about
transmissibility seem justified — the rapid
spike in cases in Gauteng, and its rapid
travel around the world, suggest it can
spread incredibly quickly.
Perhaps a bigger worry is whether it
will evade our vaccines. That is harder to
tell. The genomics do not look good — the
mutations to the spike protein are clearly
worrying. But this is a theoretical risk and
we will not know the impact until scien-
tists have properly assessed the variant
against antibodies and vaccines. The first
antibody lab results will be due in a few
days and Pfizer says it will be able to give
an assessment as to how its vaccine per-
forms within a fortnight.
Even then, we will only know the scale
of the Omicron threat when it comes up
against vaccines. The rapid spread in
South Africa might be partly explained by
the fact that only 24 per cent of the popu-
lation has received two doses of a vac-
cine. In the UK that figure is 69 per cent.
There are reasons to be hopeful. Pro-
fessor Sir Andrew Pollard, director of the
Oxford Vaccine Group, believes the exist-
ing jabs will cope against the new variant,
pointing out that although there are a lot
of mutations, most are in similar regions
seen in other variants so far — each of
which have been effectively dealt with by
the original vaccines.
Another crucial question is whether

Omicron will be able to make inroads into

the UK at all. To do so it would need to dis-

place the Delta variant. Previous worry-

ing strains faded away because they

could not compete, first against the

Alpha variant, and then against Delta.

While soaring cases in South Africa,

where Delta was dominant, do not

inspire confidence it can hold firm, until

a fortnight ago there were no more than

100 cases a day in the country. In the UK,

where cases are more than 50,000 a day,

Delta might be harder to shift.

An outlier? Or the first of many?

Scientists believe whatever its origin,

such a dramatic evolution is likely to have

taken place in an immunocompromised

patient — for example someone with HIV

who was unable to fight off a Covid infec-

tion, which then mutated with their

body. Why does this matter? Because it

suggests we are not where we were this

time last year, when four dangerous vari-

ants — Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta —

emerged around the world in the space of

a few weeks. That process happened

because of evolutionary pressure to

adapt to the human body, 12 months after

the virus emerged from bats. Since then,

Delta, the evolutionary winner, has been

remarkably stable. It has changed in sub-

tle ways, but not to a worrying extent.

If the Omicron variant is, as suspected,

the result of a mutation within a single

very sick patient, it suggests this is a piece

of bad luck rather than an evolutionary

inevitability — in other words, an outlier.

Are we ready?

Our defences are primed. We have the

best genomic surveillance in the world,

and while NHS Test and Trace has been

scaled down its staff are active with

50,000 cases a day. And once more, we

can put our trust in science. If it turns out

the new variant escapes our immunity,

scientists are ready to tweak vaccines. On

Friday night — just three days after scien-

tists in Botswana published the genetic

sequence for the new virus — Moderna

announced it was preparing an Omicron-

specific booster vaccine. Pfizer is ready to

do the same. Omicron is here. But the sci-

entists are ready.

@ben_spencer

Drug firms

are already

tailoring

their vaccines

cent to 42 per cent, according to pollster

James Johnson, who carried out the

survey for Kekst CNC.

But people remain rational. They also

understand the need for restrictions. In

March last year, when Boris Johnson told

the nation to stay at home to save lives,

we obeyed in our millions.

Polling carried out by Imperial

College London two weeks into the first

lockdown found extremely high levels of

compliance. Some 88 per cent of people

were leaving their homes no more than

once a day. Nearly two thirds of people

said they had not been within six feet of

anyone outside their household for at

least a week, in an impressive feat of

social distancing. Over the summer of

2020 rules were eased amid new

schemes to boost the economy, such as

Eat Out to Help Out.

It might have been easy to assume

that, by then, the genie was out of the

bottle, that the British population would

never again comply with a full

lockdown. But once infection rates rose

again last autumn, and the prime

minister ordered people to stay at home

initially during November before

banning festive family gatherings and

then reimposing a third and lengthy

lockdown in early January, we fell back

into line.

A survey of 70,000 people by

University College London found that at

the end of January this year some 96 per

cent of respondents said they complied

with the majority of lockdown rules.

The lesson? People will follow rules,

will change their behaviour, as long as

they understand the rationale behind

the request. When the short-lived tier-

system, for example, was introduced last

year there were so many contradictions

that many people felt it morally

acceptable to breach the rules.

Will another lockdown be required?

Let’s hope not. New restrictions — on

mask wearing and self-isolation — were

introduced last night. They will not have

a huge impact on people’s lives.

Depending on the severity of the new

variant, they may be sufficient to

dampen its spread. But if the

government asks us to go further — to

restrict indoor social gathering, or worse

— compliance will depend on the

perceived scale of the threat, and the

clarity with which ministers present the

request. After nearly two years of the

pandemic, we will not so quickly retreat

into our homes.

Friday, he said: “My greatest worry at

the moment is that if we need to do

something more muscular, at some

point, whether it’s for the current new

variant or at some later stage, can we still

take people with us?”

He praised the British people for their

“extraordinary” ability “to just accept

that there are things we collectively have

to do to protect one another”. But he

acknowledged that it was “easier to be

confident of people’s response right at

the beginning than it is after people have

put up with two years of their lives being

interfered with”.

The latest polling suggests he is right

to be concerned. Tough measures might

not sit well with the public, and

priorities are slowly shifting. At the start

of the pandemic only 13 per cent of

people would rather protect the

economy than limit the spread of the

virus. Earlier this month that had risen

to 36 per cent. The number wanting to

limit the spread had fallen from 74 per

“If we don’t do it now we’ve got to ask

ourselves, when will we ever do it?” said

Boris Johnson.

It was July 18, the eve of last summer’s

“Freedom Day” when England unlocked

and social distancing and masks were all

but scrapped.

At the time, the prime minister

acknowledged that the virus was “still

out there” and said the relaxation of

restrictions would have to be done

“cautiously”. But since then, as a fourth

wave engulfed continental Europe,

sending some countries back into full or

partial lockdowns, his gamble has

appeared to have paid off, with England

enjoying more or less a normal life.

Offices, though by no means full, have

returned to life. Pubs and restaurants are

booming in many parts of the UK, only

held back by staff shortages. Sports

stadiums are packed. Light restrictions

have been reimposed in Scotland, Wales

and Northern Ireland but the question

dominating the thinking of many

behavioural scientists and politicians is

this: will Britain even accept a fourth

full-scale lockdown?

Twice now, Britain’s war against the

virus has been knocked off course by

new mutations. First, exactly this time

last year, when the Alpha variant spread

like wildfire from Kent, and then, in the

spring, when the Delta strain was

imported from India.

Despite the huge progress made over

the past year, this was what scientists

and politicians feared. Every optimistic

statement about the future has been

tempered by an accompanying warning

about variants.

Back in the spring, Johnson promised

that his road map out of lockdown was

irreversible — but only as long as a “far

more dangerous variant” did not

emerge. Today, as Professor Adam Finn,

of the Joint Committee on Vaccination

and Immunisation, which formulates

immunisation policy, put it: “It [the new

variant] could be very serious. I think we

all need to be ready for the possibility of

a change in the restrictions.” The

question is, are we ready for such a

change? Having had an extended taste of

freedom since July, are we prepared to

give up our liberties once more? It is

something that Professor Chris Whitty,

the chief medical officer for England, is

certainly worried about. Speaking to the

Local Government Association, on

Ben Spencer Science Editor

THE COVID NUMBERS

Source: GOV.UK

1,009 794

137 125

Oct 19 Nov 19

Tot al

Seven-day admissions

average

Seven-day

average

Seven-day

average

Oct 18 Nov 18

46,671 41,

10.07m

Oct 18 Nov 18

Total cases

Cumulative number of people tested

positive up to November 26

597,

Tot al de aths

144,

Cumulative number of Covid-19 patients

admitted to hospital up to November 22

Total number of deaths within 28 days of

first positive test up to November 26

Patients admitted to hospital

Deaths within 28 days of positive

test by date of death

Cases by specimen date

Britons’ willingness to follow rules

could be pushed to breaking point

The Sunday Times November 28, 2021 13

Boris Johnson

yesterday

announced

measures to slow

the spread of the

Omicron variant,

first found in

South Africa