Lecture 33: Long Trends—Expansion and State Power

Long Trends—Expansion and State Power....................................

LECTURE

By 5,000 years ago, by 3000 B.C.E., there were probably about 50

million people on Earth. Now, what this means is that in the early

Agrarian era, human populations had multiplied by about 10 times.

Then by 1,000 years ago, at the end of the later Agrarian era, there may

have been about 250 million people on Earth.

T

he previous lecture described some general features of Agrarian

civilizations. The next three lectures ask: How did Agrarian

civilizations change during the 4,000 years of the later Agrarian era?

They focus on Afro-Eurasia, the largest and most inÀ uential of the four

world zones. This lecture describes two ways in which Agrarian civilizations

in Afro-Eurasia expanded during almost 4,000 years. First, Agrarian

civilizations occupied larger areas and incorporated more people. Second,

as rulers got more skillful at their craft, and knowledge of “governance”

accumulated within elite groups, the power and reach of states increased.

In the course of 4,000 years, Agrarian civilizations spread to incorporate

most of the population of the Afro-Eurasian world zone. Five thousand

years ago (in 3000 B.C.E.), Agrarian civilization existed only in Sumer and

Egypt. Four thousand years ago (in 2000 B.C.E.), Agrarian civilizations also

existed in the north of the Indian subcontinent and along the Yellow River

in northern China. By 2,000 years ago, Agrarian civilizations were also

À ourishing around the Mediterranean basin, in southern China, and in parts

of Southeast Asia. By 1,000 years ago, Agrarian civilizations had spread to

sub-Saharan Africa, and to both western and eastern Europe.

Estonian American scholar Rein Taagepera has tried to quantify these changes

by estimating the areas included within states in “megameters.” A megameter

is approximately the size of modern Egypt. Though very approximate, these

calculations do seem to indicate some clear trends. In 3000 B.C.E., states

controlled just 0.2 megameters, which is almost 0.2% of the area of Afro-

Eurasia that is controlled by modern states. (Today, of course, states control

virtually the entire landmass of Afro-Eurasia, so this is a reminder of how